478
FXUS61 KRNK 140018
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
818 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A stalled frontal boundary will remain within the region through
the weekend and into next week. Several weak disturbances will
move along the boundary, resulting in scattered afternoon and
evening rain and thunderstorms through the end of next week.
Slow moving storms could cause isolated flash flooding, with
damaging wind gusts possible each day with the strongest
storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Thunderstorms will taper off after sunset this evening and
overnight.

2) Heavy rainfall under the heaviest storms could produce localized
flash flooding.

3) Expect more of the same tomorrow, as afternoon storms will
again be expected.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed west of I-77 and
continue to drift east. The Piedmont has stayed mostly dry due to a
lack of forcing to initialize thunderstorms. North of I-64, storms
are more widespread, due to being closer to the front stalled to the
north. While severe weather is not expected, an isolated damaging
wind gust will be possible for the next few hours until diurnal
heating is lost and the storms begin to dissipate. Quiet weather
returns overnight with winds remaining mostly calm. This will allow
patchy fog to form Saturday morning, especially west of the Blue
Ridge where rainfall fell. A similar day is expected tomorrow,
though rain coverage is expected to increase, due to an upper-level
shortwave trough approaching the area, which will enhance lift.
Adjusted PoPs to account for current storms on radar, and slightly
increased the dewpoints to match observations. Otherwise, the
previous forecast remains on track.

Previous Discussion...

As of 130 PM EDT Friday...

A stalled frontal boundary is currently situated across northern
Virginia. A very warm and moist airmass is fully in place across
the region as southerly flow continues to increase. With lack
of any substantial shear, mainly expecting sub-severe slow
moving storms capable of marginally strong gusts and heavy
rainfall rates. As a result of the slow storm motions and high
ambient moisture, localized flooding will be possible due to
efficient rainfall rates.

Thunderstorms will gradually taper off around sunset and showers
and a few heavier downpours may continue through midnight. Areas
of fog will develop early Saturday.

Mostly cloudy start to Saturday, but should see breaks of sun by
late morning and into early afternoon. This should be sufficient
enough to result in CAPE values to climb in excess of 2000 J/kg
by the afternoon. Upper wave moving east from Kentucky will
provide better forcing, thus expecting slightly better coverage
of storms, along with the potential for a few stronger storms
through Saturday afternoon. Once again, main threat from storms
will be damaging winds and very heavy rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

1) Rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the period.

A stalled boundary/lee trough looks to remain across the area with
added forcing from an upper shortwave approaching from the west for
Sunday. These mechanisms in an amply moist airmass will allow for
pretty widespread showers and thunderstorms to develop. Very high
PWATs of near 1.75 to 2+ inches in place will support very efficient
precip producers and aided downdrafts with hydrometeor loading.
Localized flooding looks to be the primary threat with convection.

We lose some of the upper wave energy come Monday though maintain a
very moist column. Coverage may not be quite as widespread as Sunday
but the continued threat of showers and storms with locally heavy
rain and isolated flooding remains.

Temps look to have a limited diurnal range with near to below normal
highs and above normal lows given the moist environment.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

1) Precipitation chances continue daily.

CWA remains under broad SW flow aloft and a continued moist airmass
through midweek without much of any main feature moving through
other than some possible weak perturbations along the flow. This
will mean rounds of scattered convection each day with coverage
mainly increasing from diurnal heating unless any aforementioned
upper disturbance can focus pockets of enhanced forcing during other
times of the days. By later Thursday into Friday some guidance is
pegging in on an upper longwave trough and translated sfc cold
frontal passage though there are timing and strength discrepancies.

Wed and Thu high temps look to be the warmest with areas in the
Piedmont potentially hitting the 90 deg mark.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT Friday...

VFR conditions are currently at all terminals this evening, despite
scattered storms across the area. Storms will continue to be
possible through around 04z area-wide as they dissipate with the
loss of daytime heating. Any showers/storms will briefly reduce
flight conditions to at least MVFR. Once the storms dissipate
overnight, VFR conditions return for a brief time as calm winds will
allow patchy fog to form, particularly for LWB, though all terminals
will see some reduction in VSBY between 06-13z. LWB will likely fall
to LIFR due to dense fog between 07-13z, with VSBY around 1/4 mile.
All terminals return to VFR conditions after 13z Saturday and remain
there through midday. Scattered storms are once again expected to
form during the afternoon, with more coverage expected, which will
cause sub-VFR conditions to occur when they impact a terminal. Winds
remain light, though any storms could bring brief gusty winds. Skies
are expected to be broken to overcast for Saturday into Saturday
night. Storms will again begin to dissipate after sunset, with a
repeat into the overnight hours with VFR conditions before patchy
fog develops early morning on Sunday.

Confidence in the above forecast is moderate.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Sunday will again see scattered to widespread showers/storms, mainly
during the afternoon, as an upper-level trough moves over the area.
When impacted by storms, terminals will drop to sub-VFR flight
conditions until they pass. After sunset, storms will weaken and
eventually dissipate overnight, with VFR conditions across most
areas. Morning fog will be possible each day into early next week,
as light winds with high moisture content will likely bring some
terminals down to IFR/LIFR conditions. The pattern remains in place
through midweek, with afternoon storm chances each day bringing sub-
VFR conditions when over any terminal.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Saturday for VAZ046-047.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG/JCB
NEAR TERM...BMG/JCB
SHORT TERM...AB
LONG TERM...AB
AVIATION...JCB