


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
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601 FXUS61 KRNK 020000 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 800 PM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will arrive on Wednesday, which will bring increasing clouds and chances of rain into Wednesday night. Above normal temperatures should continue for the rest of the week with a few showers west of the mountains due to a frontal boundary that will stall across the Ohio River Valley. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 800 PM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: 1) Confidence is high for winds increasing from the southeast across portions of West Virginia and far southwest Virginia. 2) Clouds will increase on Wednesday, and chances of rain should also steadily rise as a warm front approaches. As high pressure enters the New England states tonight, the flow should swing towards the east and southeast. Meanwhile, a low pressure system will cross the central Plains, which will cause a pressure gradient across the Appalachian Mountains. The southeast wind could gust up to 35 mph across parts of southeast West Virginia and far southwest Virginia by Wednesday. Clouds will increase as this moist and cool air from the Atlantic Ocean wedges against the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge. The warm front from the aforementioned low pressure system will draw closer by Wednesday evening. As a result of this upcoming pattern, temperatures were lowered in this update with highs on Wednesday not climbing out of the 50s for a majority of locations. Chances of rain should also rise from the southern Blue Ridge on Wednesday morning and spread along the remainder of the Appalachian Mountains by Wednesday afternoon. Rainfall amounts will remain light and could just be sprinkles or drizzle until the warm front arrives late in the day to bring additional lift. Patchy fog was also introduced along the crest of the southern Blue Ridge as the upslope moisture increases, especially near Interstate 77 and Fancy Gap. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 1015 AM EDT Tuesday... Key Message: 1) High confidence in warming temperatures and increasing clouds and chances for rain in the short term forecast. Wednesday night through the end of the work week we will still be mostly under the influence of Bermuda high pressure aloft. A frontal fracture/extended baroclinic zone will be situated roughly from TX to PA to ME and gradually shift into northern sections of the forecast area late in the period. Southerly winds will help keep moisture elevated Wednesday night through Friday, and showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day, mainly in the afternoons when heating is greatest, and mainly over the mountains. For Thursday and Friday, high temperatures will be a good 15-20 degrees warmer than on Wednesday. Have gone a few degrees below guidance however due to showers and clouds. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1010 AM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: 1) Cold front finally moves through over the weekend. 2) Much cooler temperatures early next week. Saturday will be another warm day under cloud cover and mountain showers with a possible backdoor front situation as part of the boundary shifts south. Finally by Sunday, a strong short wave will eject out of the southern Plains and will be absorbed by the larger mean trough to our west. This should be enough forcing to kick a cold front through the area, bringing widespread moderate rain along with thunderstorms. The cold front will usher in much cooler temperatures by next Monday and Tuesday, with highs in the 40s and 50s for the mountains, and in the 60s for the piedmont, and lows areawide in the 30s. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 800 PM EDT Tuesday... Confidence is high for VFR conditions early tonight. Scattered cirrus will spread overhead and increase in coverage overnight. Although the flow will start as light and variable this evening, it should swing towards the east and southeast before daybreak on Wednesday. The southeast flow should accelerate west of the Blue Ridge on Wednesday with gusts up to 25-30 knots at BLF and 15-20 knots at BCB and LWB. In addition, the increasing moisture will cause a layer of IFR to MVFR stratus to develop. Model soundings show a high probability of ceilings falling lower by sunset on Wednesday with light rain arriving due to an approaching warm front. .EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Poor flying conditions are becoming increasingly likely on Wednesday night as a warm front crosses the Mid Atlantic. Rain coverage should increase, while ceilings and visibilities could drop to IFR or possibly lower along the Blue Ridge. A cold front may stall across the Ohio River Valley during the remainder of the week and into the weekend. Chances of rain and potential MVFR conditions remain possible for Thursday though Sunday as the flow turns more towards the southwest. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PW NEAR TERM...PW SHORT TERM...SH LONG TERM...SH AVIATION...PW