281
FXUS61 KRNK 040243
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1043 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front currently orientated in a southwest to northeast
was draped across the lower Ohio valley towards the Mid-
Atlantic. The cold front to our west is expected to stall, but
will become a breeding ground for thunderstorms that will
organize and move east, increasing the threat for scattered
showers and a few storms for our area through the upcoming
weekend. The warm front is expected to drift north across the
lower Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic regions over the next couple
of days before an upper level system pushes a cold front east by
Sunday bringing the weekends best rain chances.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1050 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

 - Severe weather threat has diminished for the rest of tonight

 - Record/near Record high overnight temps and daytime temps are
   expected for Friday.

Radar showed isolated showers over central and northern West
Virginia and Virginia late this evening. The best chance of any
additional rain will remain north of I-64 west of Lexington. The
threat of any severe thunderstorms has been trimmed back to 5%.
The primary hazards would be damaging wind and large hail.

Cloud cover and surface dew points in the mid 50s to mid 60s
will keep minimum temperatures tonight well above normal, by 20
to 30 degrees. See the climate section of this discussion for
the potential records.


Previous discussion...

The area will continue to remain on the northern edge of an
upper level ridge centered off the coast of northern Florida.
Given the placement of this ridge, a quasi-stationary warm front
is expected to remain along the northern edge of this ridge.

This will keep minimal rain chances for much of the area on
Friday. Some CAM guidance from 12 UTC have scattered convection
developing across the Virginia Piedmont; however, it is not
widely supported by a majority of CAM models. This leads to low
confidence in these storms developing on Friday, and overall
lower PoPs forecast, with only 30-40 PoPs forecast for areas
generally along and north of the I-64 corridor.

Areas south of the I-64 corridor have 10-20 PoPs forecast. If
any storms do develop, they will be in an environment favorable
for strong winds and hail as MLCAPE looks to be around 1500-2000
J/Kg. Current guidance suggests that 850mb winds look to drop
to around 10 knots Friday afternoon, which would limit the low
level shear and overall tornado threat/potential for the area.
While low level shear is forecast to drop off, deep layer shear
from the 0-6km level looks to remain elevated at around 40
knots, which will still support strong storms that can produce
strong winds and hail if they develop. This all of course hinges
on the placement of the warm front, which CAM models still
disagree with.

Currently forecast high temperatures are expected to be
in the upper 70s to mid 80s west of the Blue Ridge, and mid to
upper 80s east of the Blue Ridge. These temperatures will lead
to the possibility of many high temperature records being broken
on Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Temperatures to rise

2) Chance of thunderstorms this weekend

Unusually warm weather will continue into Saturday as transportation
of warm and moist air continues from the south. High temperatures
will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s region wide. Temperatures could
get as high as 90 in parts of the NC/VA Piedmont but this will be
dependent on how much cloud cover there will be.

The front that has been stalling over the Mid-Atlantic will finally
push through southward this weekend as the surface high pressure
system over the Atlantic moves away from the Carolina coast. Because
of the moist and warm conditions leading up to the frontal passage,
conditions are favorable for widespread precipitation for Sunday as
the front passes through. The precipitation totals have trended
up with the most recent model guidance with potentially up to
0.5" inches of rain for southside VA and northern NC. The WPC
has already placed parts of these areas under a Marginal Risk of
Excessive Rainfall due to the flash flood potential. Severe
weather potential still remains unclear. Environment looks to be
a low CAPE / high shear set up, but lapse rates and forcing are
not to impressive enough to produce anything but general
thunderstorms at the moment.

As the front passes, winds will pick up considerably and become
northwesterly. Sustained winds areawide are expected to be between
10-15 mph with gusts up to 40 mph at the highest peaks along the
Blue Ridge.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

1) Cold temperatures to return

Another cold front will move in early next week, following the
weekend cold front. This front will bring in notably colder and
drier air. Dew points could potentially drop into the teens and
single digits and mid-week early morning temperatures could be as
low as in the 20s and 30s. With the winds that accompany this cold
front, wind chills are likely to drop into the 20s and teens. Single
digit wind chills for Western Greenbrier are not out of the
question. The winds will be around 10-15 mph with gusts of 20-35 mph
along and west of the Blue Ridge.

The new air mass will bring stabler conditions, clear skies, and a
break in the storms. There is a signal of an upper level trough that
could bring another chance of storms by late next week but guidance
model agreement gets messy and the timing and impacts of this system
are currently very uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 710 PM EDT Thursday...

Low clouds left-over from the wedge have eroded this evening. Most
terminal should remain VFR through most of the night. KDAN, KLYH and
KLWB could see some low clouds/visibilities toward sunrise then
return to VFR by late morning. However confidence is low.

Boundary should stay to the north of the area tonight into Friday
with a few strong cells coming across the mountains (KBLF, but
moreso KLWB) in the afternoon/evening. Will have VCTS at these sites
late in the afternoon.

Southwest winds will diminish tonight, then similar speeds/gusts
Friday as today (10-15 knots gusting to 20-25 knots).

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

A frontal boundary should stall across the Ohio River Valley during
Friday night. This frontal boundary will keep chances of showers and
thunderstorms present into the upcoming weekend. Otherwise,
conditions should stay mostly VFR outside of any afternoon
convection or any increase in moisture at night that could produce a
layer of low clouds. A cold front may arrive by late Sunday into
Sunday night to provide sub-VFR conditions and a more widespread
chance of showers and thunderstorms. MVFR ceilings might linger into
Monday across the mountains, while a gusty northwest wind
returns.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Several record high and warmest low temperatures are on track to
possibly be broken tonight and on Friday across the area.
Blacksburg and Roanoke may break their record high temperatures
of 83 and 87 with forecast highs of 84 and 88 degrees
respectively tomorrow. All climate sites have a chance to break
their record warmest low tonight as WAA is forecast to continue
through the overnight hours keeping temperatures well above the
average for this time of the year, with lows in the low to mid
60s forecast areawide.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AMS/EB
NEAR TERM...AMS/EB/RCS
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...EB/RCS
CLIMATE...EB