136
FXUS61 KRNK 260255
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1055 PM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A moist airmass and approaching cold front will allow for rounds
of showers and possible thunderstorms today into Saturday. High
pressure brings drier and cooler weather for early next week.
The next chance for precipitation looks to be mainly midweek
with a frontal system.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1050 PM EST Friday...

Key Message:

  - Scattered showers continue into Saturday morning

Have updated probability of precipitation for the latest radar
trends. Based on latest short term guidance and Bufkit forecast
soundings, the cold front will just be approaching Boone,
Bluefield, and Lewisburg around 8AM/12Z Saturday. Have
maintained at least a low probability of precipitation in the
forecast until that time. Trend is still for showers and any
thunderstorms to weaken as they move east. No significant
changes were made to overnight lows. Temperatures will be nearly
steady for much of the night.


Previous Discussion
As of 710 PM EDT....

Evening update: Mainly adjusted PoPs to latest radar trends;
increase west of the Blue Ridge and lowered in the east.

Prefrontal showers are moving northeast across the mountains.
These showers are actually moving faster to the northeast
(strong southwest flow aloft) than to the east. Therefore, these
showers will take several hours to move over the mountains this
evening. By the time they do move east of the Blue Ridge, lose
of heating will diminish areal coverage. Showers this afternoon
and evening are dropping around one to two tenths of an inch of
rain with isolated stronger cells producing a quarter to half of
an inch.

Previous Discussion...
As of 200 PM EDT Friday...

Mostly cloudy and light scattered showers continue as a
boundary to the south is expected to propagate northward as a
warm front due to the influence of an approaching low surface
pressure system. Coverage of the scattered showers are
anticipated to increase later this afternoon and evening as the
warm front passes through. The cold front from the western low
is traveling quicker than anticipated and is now expected to
move through the region overnight into Saturday morning. A line
of thunderstorms is forecast to pass towards the Mid-Atlantic
ahead of the front to bring widespread precipitation. Model
guidance suggests this line of storms may struggle to hold
overnight due to the lack of daytime heating and low CAPE.
Therefore, most of the anticipated rainfall is expected to be in
the more western and mountainous counties of the area. PWAT
values, nevertheless, of 1-1.5" are significantly higher than
average this time of year (around 0.65"). Ensemble guidance
suggests between 0.25-0.50 inches of rain is possible this
evening into Saturday morning for this area, though local areas
could see higher amounts of up to one inch. The Weather
Prediction Center has highlighted this area in a Marginal Risk
(1 out of 4) of Excessive Rainfall but given already dry
conditions, flooding is currently not expected to be a concern.
While none of these storms are also not expected to be severe,
lightning and heavy rain could still accompany the storms
overnight.

Otherwise, temperatures and dew points will be similar as they
have been the past few days with highs in the 60s to upper 70s
and dew points in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) High pressure brings an end to any lingering rain.

2) High temperatures will be pleasant and a few degrees either side
of normal for this time of year.

3) Moderate confidence in patchy frost Sunday and Monday mornings
for the western Greenbrier Valley.

High pressure builds in from the north Saturday night into Sunday
morning bringing dry conditions and cooler overnight lows, with some
upper 30s possible for the mountains. Light northerly winds, sunny
skies, and much drier air is on tap for Sunday, with highs in the
60s to low 70s. As high pressure becomes centered overhead Monday,
winds become lighter and more variable. Sunny skies and building
heights will foster slightly warmer temperatures Monday than on
Sunday. Another cool morning Monday. Both Sunday and Monday we could
see patchy frost in the mountains of the western Greenbrier Valley
where the ground temperatures approaches dew points in the lower
30s. This looks to occur a higher elevations where few people live.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 100 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Temperatures trend warmer with highs in the 80s for parts of the
area.

2) Several chances for rain for this period, but low confidence.

Ridging becomes more amplified Tuesday, and temperatures respond
with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Our slightly warmer urban
areas will approach the upper 80s.

Ridging decreases some for the midweek period as short wave energy
passes by to our north and a weak front sinks into the region. The
front will help bring increasing clouds as well as some scattered
showers and isolated storms to the area, especially Wednesday
afternoon and evening. By Thursday, a more organized system ejects
from the southern Plains and interacts with the boundary, which
moves through on Friday. This has the potential for widespread
showers and storms with a decent short wave or two dipping into the
region. However, at this time, am cautious in assigning much more
than chance PoPs, given scattered nature of the convection and
timing differences among ensemble members.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 715 PM EDT Friday...

Prefrontal showers are moving across the mountains this evening
with most TAF sites remaining VFR with the exception of KLWB.
Showers are expect to diminish in coverage through the evening,
but may linger deep into the night with modest CAPE values
hanging around. Shower coverage will increase by sunrise as a
cold front tracks across the region through the day.

Reduce visibilities due to fog is possible, but confidence is
low due to thick cloud cover and time of year. Flight
restrictions will be reduced mainly by low clouds, especially
west of the Blue Ridge (KLWB, KBLF, and KBCB).

Winds will remain southerly overnight then become westerly
behind the front. Sharp pressure rises and clearing skies will
have westerly winds 10-20kts with gusts into the 30 knot range.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

High pressure builds in late Saturday afternoon into the
evening. With the ground being wet and clearing expected
Saturday night, fog is possible, especially in the mountain
valleys. Conditions improve Sunday until another frontal system
arrives by mid-next week.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AB/AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/CG/RCS
SHORT TERM...SH
LONG TERM...SH
AVIATION...CG/RCS