726
FXUS61 KRNK 041057
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
557 AM EST Tue Nov 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather looks to continue for much of the work week, with a
dry cold front passing through the region late Wednesday into
Thursday. This will lead to windy conditions once again mid
week. The region`s next rain chances are expected this weekend
with another cold front expected on Saturday. Near or above
average temperatures can be expected through much of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Message:

1) Dry conditions continue today.


Surface high pressure looks to settle just south of the
region across the North Carolina and South Carolina borders
today. This will lead to much calmer winds across the region as
the pressure gradient force relaxes area wide today. The 40-50
knot 850mb northwesterly jet streak over the Virginia and West
Virginia is expected to exit east of the region by this morning.
This will also help keep winds much calmer areawide today. As
high pressure does settle over the region, brief ridge building
is expected to develop throughout the day. This will lead to
slightly warmer temperatures for areas west of the Blue Ridge
today.

With high pressure remaining over the region, cloud cover should
be limited across the area; however, some upper level cirrus
clouds can`t be ruled out to push into the region by mid morning
today.

Overall, expect a pleasant day with highs in the mid 50s to low
60s west of the Blue Ridge, and mid 60s east of the Blue Ridge
today.

&&

Short Term .../WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 245 AM EST TUESDAY...

Key Messages:

1) Gusty conditions Wednesday

2) Beginnings of rain late Friday

A front will move over the east coast on Wednesday, displacing a
broad area of strong surface high pressure. The abundance of dry air
in the region will prevent precipitation from forming in general,
but a few isolated instances are possible Wednesday night in the
mountains of southeastern WV. The main impact will be gusty winds
Wednesday night tapering off by Thursday morning. Winds could
reach as high as 40 MPH in the mountains. High pressure will
keep the majority of Thursday and Friday as quiet clear days.
Guidance has slowed down, where Friday evening was expected to see
rain in the western portion of the forecast area, but it seems the
trend has been to slow down the approach of the Friday/Saturday
front. Temperatures will trend up as the front enhances southerly
flow, returning closer to normal after the front late on Wednesday
night.

&&

LONG TERM .../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 330 AM EST TUESDAY...

Key Messages:

1) Weekend cold fronts will drop temperatures and cause rain

A cold front Saturday will bring rain to most of the forecast area
for the first time in almost a week. A second, stronger front will
make its presence felt on Sunday and into Monday. Temperatures will
drop noticeably with this system. In fact, this could be the first
real chance at snowfall in the western mountains as an upslope event
works in tandem with the much colder air.  This is not a guarantee
of snow at this early juncture, but just raising the possibility of
snow this early in the season. There is still considerable
uncertainty regarding timing, track of the associated low, as well
as available moisture, all of which can change the impacts of the
system. Temperatures will be around normal for Saturday and most of
Sunday, before dropping considerably behind the Sunday/Monday
front.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 600 AM EST Tuesday...

Gusty westerly/northwesterly winds have predominantly
diminished through the overnight hours, and winds are around 10
knots or less at nearly all terminals this morning. While gusts
look to continue to diminish, winds look to remain westerly
through the TAF period, with sustained winds of around 5 knots
expected on Tuesday. Gusts of 10-15 knots are expected through
the afternoon Today at all terminals, with winds becoming calm
and slowly transitioning to southerly/southwesterly around 00
UTC on Wednesday. Overall, no restrictions are expected through
the TAF period. Some LLWS can`t be ruled out towards the 06-12
UTC Wednesday timeframe as another 850mb jet approaches the
region in association from a dry cold front passage. Confidence
in timing was not high enough yet to include in TAF lines at
this time, but may be added in subsequent TAF updates.

Expecting widespread VFR for Today.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR likely throughout the week. Gusty winds possible again on
Wednesday and Wednesday night in association with a dry frontal
passage.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EB
NEAR TERM...EB
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...EB/PM