290
FXUS61 KRNK 011739
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
139 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increasing confidence in another dry stretch of weather
beginning Monday through possibly the entire next work week.

Aviation forecast updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Increasing chances for rain Friday afternoon
through Sunday night.

2) A warming trend continues tomorrow, with a cold air wedge
building in for the weekend. Nice fall weather, a little on the
cool side, for next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Increasing chances for rain Friday afternoon
through Sunday night.

A sub-tropical ridge now overhead will gradually be pushed
southeast by Friday night. Broad troughing covering the
northern half of the CONUS will shift east and periodically dip
farther south into the Southern Appalachians through early next
week. A cold front is projected to shift through WV and VA and
slow over NC Friday into Saturday before stalling. This will be
accompanied by a string of positive vorticity advection on the
front side of the trough. The front will meander in the vicinity
as a warm front, and along with additional swaths of PVA, will
trigger widespread rain chances Friday night through Sunday
night. By Monday, a secondary cold front will sweep through,
this time accompanied by cooler and much drier air, bringing an
end to our rain chances.

The trend to delay the onset of precipitation has held...with
the first drops likely falling in SE WV tomorrow late afternoon
into the evening, and not pushing into SW VA until Saturday
morning and NW NC until Saturday afternoon. Rainfall amounts
look to be a half an inch to over an inch for the entire event,
but some CAMs show more spotty precipitation with some areas
possibly missing out or only receiving drizzle or a light
shower. Could see a few thunderstorms tomorrow, but for the
weekend with wedging building in, expect just general rain
showers, some of which could have moderate rain rates.


KEY MESSAGE 2: A warming trend continues tomorrow, with a cold
air wedge building in for the weekend. Nice fall weather, a
little on the cool side, for next week.

Through late Friday, WSW winds will help pump moisture northward
to the baroclinic zone moving into our area. This along with
residual ridging and compressional warming along the boundary
will continue to support above normal temperatures through
tomorrow. We`ll range from about +9F degrees above climatology
for Bluefield to +13F degrees above for Roanoke and Danville for
tomorrow`s highs. Did lower them a bit based on encroaching
cloud cover.

A wedge pattern begins to develop Saturday and becomes more
pronounced through Sunday, eventually being eroded by the large
push of high pressure and cool, dry air behind the secondary
front Monday. Temperatures will drop into the 60s and 70s
areawide Saturday through next Wednesday...much closer to or
even below normal...perfect sweater weather. Sunny skies will go
some way to making it more of a pleasant fall weather stretch.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Aside from morning river/valley fog, VFR conditions are expected
to persist through midday Friday, before rain chances increase
after the current TAF cycle through 02/18z.

Expect IFR to LIFR restrictions in fog to develop at LWB after
5Z tonight through about 13-14Z Friday. Other sites should be
a little too dry for fog or stratus. Winds through the TAF
period will generally remain out of the southwest at around 5-10
knots, with gusts up to 15 knots or so possible for BLF, LYH,
and DAN during the daytime. ALl sites drop to calm or light and
variable overnight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Rain moves into BLF and LWB tomorrow in the later afternoon into
early evening. Rain moves towards BCB/ROA/LYH very late Friday
into early Saturday morning, eventually reaching DAN later
Saturday. Showers continue throughout the weekend with a series
of upper level disturbances and fronts. Rain may be moderate to
heavy at times, though not constant. A building wedge pattern
will also support plenty of drizzle and fog at times, as well as
stratus. Conditions should start out VFR/MVFR and drop
throughout the day Saturday into Sunday towards MVFR and lower.

Winds shift to the northeast by Saturday, due to a cold air
wedge, with mountain locations again seeing winds shift to the
southeast by Sunday morning as the wedge locks in through
Sunday night. This should bring more widespread LIFR/IFR
ceilings. Rain chances end and skies finally clear as the wedge
erodes Monday following a secondary cold frontal passage, with
winds shifting back to the northwest, and areawide VFR
developing.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SH
AVIATION...SH