Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
024 FXUS61 KRNK 011032 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 632 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation forecast updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A warming trend peaks Friday, with a cold air wedge building in for the weekend behind a cold front passage. 2) The current period of dry and clear weather ends late Friday into the weekend with increasing chances for rain. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: A warming trend peaks Friday, with a cold air wedge building in for the weekend behind a cold front passage. Upper level ridging is expected to build over the southeast states, with the northern periphery likely across the Ohio valley and Mid- Atlantic states region. This will allow for increasing temperatures through Friday before the arrival of a cold front pushes into the region late on Friday. Behind this cold front, surface high pressure is expected to slide from the northern Great lakes region into the Northeast, which will briefly lead to cold air wedging developing over VA/NC Saturday and Sunday. This will dramatically cool temperatures areawide back to normal or just below normal for the weekend. The possibility of a secondary shortwave trough and stronger cold front look to push into the region late Monday into Tuesday, which looks to reinforce the cooler air into midweek. KEY MESSAGE 2: The current period of dry and clear weather ends late Friday into the weekend with increasing chances for rain. With the approach of a cold front on Friday night, and moisture from the remnants from Polo overriding the front, the region looks to be in store for a couple days of cool and rainy conditions through the weekend. Rainfall totals in the 0.5-1.0 inch range is anticipated with this system. Ensemble model guidance has shifted towards the surface high pressure and dry air aloft lifting slightly further north than yesterday`s model solutions. This will increase rainfall production across the area every so slightly; however, rainfall looks to remain light to moderate through the weekend overall. The cutoff line of dry vs moist air is quite evident and sharp at the 850mb level, and the placement of this line as the frontal boundary stalls will play a great role in how much precipitation the area sees over the weekend. If this line remains across northern VA as is currently forecasted, much of the area will see beneficial rainfall; however, if this line of drier air penetrates further south beyond the I-64 corridor, then much of the area will miss out on any heavy rainfall. We dry out next week with the introduction of another dry airmass behind the second reinforcing cold front. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions are being observed at most terminals except LWB, LYH, and BCB where river valley fog has lead to IFR to LIFR restrictions this morning. VFR conditions should return to all terminals by the 12-14 UTC timeframe. Winds through the TAF period will generally remain out of the southwest at around 5-10 knots, with gusts up to 15 knots possible across Piedmont terminals today. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Aside from morning river/valley fog, VFR conditions are expected to persist through midday Friday, before rain chances increase late Friday into the upcoming weekend. Showers are possible throughout the weekend, some heavy at times, though rain will not be constant. Widespread cloud cover is expected each day, with likely sub-VFR flight conditions. Winds shift to the Northeast by Saturday, due to a cold air wedge, with mountain locations again seeing winds shift to the Southeast by Sunday morning as the wedge locks in through Sunday night. Rain chances end and skies finally clear as the wedge erodes Monday, with winds shifting back to the Northwest, with area-wide VFR expected to return. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...EB AVIATION...EB/JCB