851
FXUS61 KRNK 251905
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
305 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to dominate the area for the next
several days resulting in hot and humid conditions, but will
gradually weaken. As it does so, afternoon and evening
thunderstorms will become more widespread this afternoon through
the weekend. A cold front may cross the area early next week
bringing in slightly cooler and drier air.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 250 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Extreme Heat Warnings/Heat Advisories end this evening at 8
pm.

2) Additional Heat Advisories in effect for tomorrow for parts
of the foothills and the piedmont areas of VA and NC.

3) Scattered showers/storms this afternoon and diminishing
tonight. A few storms will be strong with damaging winds and
heavy rainfall.

4) More widespread storms tomorrow afternoon/evening with
damaging winds and heavy rainfall the main threats.

Ridging at the surface and aloft will gradual weaken through
tomorrow night. Currently, plenty of moisture and surface
heating have combined to create CAPEs between 2500 and 5000 J/kg
at the surface across parts of the area, especially towards
northern NC and south central VA. Areas along an instability
gradient across northern and central NC are starting to see some
stronger storms develop. DCAPE is also between 1200 to 1500
J/kg, which is very high. Wind shear is lacking however, so we
should see single and multicell clusters capable of damaging
winds/downbursts. Storm motion is also quite slow around 5 knots
or so, with southerly motions due to the anticyclonic high
pressure. Given the weak storm motions, along with deep warm
cloud layers to 500mb and PWATs around 1.5 inches, expect some
training cells to drop heavy rainfall, possibly leading to
urban, small stream, and flash flooding in that same area.
Storms will weaken later tonight with a few showers possible
over the piedmont late.

Subsidence seems to be limiting chances for showers and storms
in other parts of the forecast area, but expect debris clouds
through this evening. For tomorrow, expect more of the same.
Convection will be more widespread with weakening subsidence,
and instability will be strong again. Damaging winds would again
be the main concern with any stronger storms, and flooding will
also continue to be a hazard.

Heat index values are currently around 105F near Lynchburg,
Danville, and Reidsville. The current Heat Warnings and
Advisories end at 8 PM this evening. Temperatures overnight
remain warm in the 60s and 70s. Another Heat Advisory is in
effect for parts for NW NC and the VA piedmont for tomorrow.

Confidence in the near term is moderate to high.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1210 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for hot and humid weather to continue into
this weekend.

2) The chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms will
steadily rise each day.

High pressure that has been sitting over the region this past
week will move off the southeast coast and into the western
Atlantic Friday. Meanwhile, a weak upper level low will wobble
over the southern states through the weekend. With this change
in the mid- to upper- level weather pattern, the chance for
afternoon and evening pulse storms will increase. Storms will
develop across the mountains in the afternoon, then drift
eastward over the foothills and piedmont. Areal coverage of
storms will be scattered during the afternoon, then become
numerous in the evening with outflow boundaries triggering more
storms. With lose of heating, storms should fade by midnight.

Clouds and showers will help trim high temperatures back some,
into the low 80s to low 90s Friday and Saturday. However, dew
points will remain elevated (mid 60s to mid 70s), keeping
conditions uncomfortable.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1210 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for temperatures to remain above normal.

2) Showers and thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon.

The threat of scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms will
continue Sunday and Monday. A cold front is expected to slowly
track across the region Tuesday into Wednesday. This front
will bring a higher chance for showers and thunderstorms to the
area. This front should move south of the area Wednesday into
Thursday with slightly cooler drier airmass overtaking the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday...

Mainly VFR conditions expected for much of the TAF period for
all terminals.

Expect widely scattered showers and thunderstorms through this
evening. Coverage and lack of organization remains too low to
include in TAFs today, but better coverage tomorrow is expected
to start after 18Z and will impact more terminals.

Winds expected to remain light and variable. Potential for 25-45
kt gusts near thunderstorms.

Expect dense fog again near LWB, with BR possible at BLF and
LYH.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

High pressure should maintain VFR conditions into the weekend.
We will be in a typical summer pattern for the most part with
scattered storms in the afternoon/evening followed by fog
potential at night where it rain and near rivers/lakes. These
two factors will cause some sub-VFR conditions.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ022>024-
     033>035-043>045.
     Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM EDT Thursday for VAZ022-023-
     033>035-043>047-058-059.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ046-
     047-058-059.
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ003>005-019-
     020.
     Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM EDT Thursday for NCZ004>006-
     020.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ006.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SH
NEAR TERM...SH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...SH