Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
172 FXUS61 KRNK 021807 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 207 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday before a cold front arrives followed by another round of showers thanks to a second cold front that arrives during the weekend. A large dry and cool air mass will follow this second front and move into the area early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 200 PM EDT Tuesday... 1) A chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. Weather pattern looks to change starting tomorrow (Wednesday) as a potent shortwave is forecast to move through the area and bring the region a chance of showers and thunderstorms. CAPE between 1000-1500 J/kg and shear of 15-20 kts will provide some support for scattered thunderstorms, but the lack of moisture and daytime heating will likely put a cap on any severe weather development. Dew points do increase into the mid-50s to lower 60s with afternoon highs towards 80 in the Piedmont. However, CAMs suggest these showers may not arrive in the Piedmont until sunset and may die out due to the lack of afternoon heating. Thus, the highest likelihood of precipitation will be along and west of the Blue Ridge. General estimates of precipitation totals are between 0.25-0.50". Some storms may be upslope based or train over a single location so localized precipitation amounts could be up to one inch. Confidence in this forecast is average. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 200 PM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: 1) Storms likely Thursday, especially along/west of Blue Ridge. 2) Summer-like temperatures briefly return for the period. The high pressure wedge that has been over the area early this week will weaken and retreat late Wednesday. Any showers/storms that formed during the day will quickly dissipate overnight after the loss of daytime heating. The bigger event will be a cold front that approaches the area on Thursday. A strong surface low and upper level trough will sit over the Northern Great Lakes into Canada mid to late week. The associated cold front will move in Thursday, but will lose steam and weaken as it moves east. Nonetheless, locations along/west of the Blue Ridge will likely see some rainfall Thursday afternoon. Southwesterly winds do increase to around 10-15 mph with gusts around 20 mph area-wide. Severe weather will also be possible due to a shortwave trough over the area that is rotating around the upper low. Currently, a Marginal Risk is for areas west of the Blue Ridge, but this will be monitored for any changes. The Piedmont will be drier, due to a much weaker front as it progresses east during the overnight hours Thursday night and the upper-level vorticity pulls back north. The cold front clears through by Friday morning, though little changes behind the front, as southwesterly flow continues with wind gusts of 15-20 mph still expected Friday afternoon. Drier air aloft will limit convection, though a few isolated showers/storms may be possible in the mountains. A stronger cold front will approach the area Friday night. QPF totals have trended down, with most of the rainfall west of the Blue Ridge. The Piedmont will mostly remain dry, but a few isolated spots could see around 0.10". Up to 0.25" is possible in the mountains, with locally higher amounts possible in the heaviest convection. Temperatures will be near to even slightly above normal due to the persistent southwesterly flow during the period. Highs will be in the 70s/80s, with upper 80s for the Piedmont Friday. Lows will be in the 50s midweek, with widespread 60s by Saturday morning. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 200 PM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: 1) Storm chances Saturday as a front moves through, quiet weather behind the front. 2) Temperatures drop to below normal once again behind the front beginning Sunday. This weekend will be a fairly straightforward forecast, as a cold front will move in from the west on Saturday, helping aid in afternoon thunderstorm development. Areas along/west of the Blue Ridge once again have the best chances for rain, with PoPs currently around 40%. Downsloping winds along with a weakening front will keep rain coverage less across the Piedmont. The front pushes through, with a large Canadian high pressure system building into the area from the northwest on Sunday. This high will suppress convection, with little to no rain chances and cooler temperatures returning across the Mid-Atlantic through the early part of next week. Models begin to differ by Tuesday as to whether the high will sink far enough south to keep rain chances near zero, or if moisture tries to surge northward back into the area. For now, PoPs are kept low, around 10-20% until confidence increases. Warm temperatures continue for Saturday ahead of the front, with highs in the 70s/80s. Some eastern Piedmont locations will reach into the low 90s. Behind the front, temperatures fall, with highs for the rest of the period mainly in the 70s. Overnight lows will be generally in the 50s, with a few 60s in the Piedmont Sunday morning. The highest elevations will fall into the 40s behind the front. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 200 PM EDT Tuesday... VFR conditions likely for all terminals this afternoon and evening due to a surface high pressure system in the vicinity. Overnight fog into early Wednesday morning is likely to return for KBCB and KLWB but will also include KDAN and KLYH. The heaviest fog is likely to be at KLWB where skies may reach LIFR status just before sunrise. A shortwave will provide showers and thunderstorms for the region Wednesday afternoon, bringing another chance of sub- VFR conditions. The terminals that are most likely to get precipitation by 18Z Wednesday are KBCB and KBLF. Otherwise winds will be light and relatively quiet overnight before becoming more southwesterly by Wednesday afternoon. Confidence in this forecast is moderate to high. .EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Showers and thunderstorms are likely to continue for Wednesday evening and Thursday. KDAN and KLYH are the least likely to receive precipitation Wednesday and Thursday compared to the other terminals but their chances are higher on Thursday than on Wednesday. These showers will be scattered so it will be hit or miss on which terminal returns to sub-VFR status in the next few days. Cloud cover will also have an impact on whether there will be fog development during the early morning hours. A cold front passes through on Thursday but winds will not change to a more northwesterly direction until a stronger front arrives during the weekend. Regardless of storms, winds could pick up a little as the fronts go through and gust to about 12-18 kts. Once the second front is through, surface high pressure moves in and returns terminals to VFR status. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CG NEAR TERM...CG SHORT TERM...JCB LONG TERM...JCB AVIATION...CG