Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
063 FXUS61 KRNK 302337 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 737 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level trough impacting the eastern CONUS will keep the region below normal as far as temperatures are concerned through the weekend. A few showers and isolated storms are possible for Sunday, but dry weather is forecast for Monday and Tuesday. A front front nears the area by the middle to end of next week, increasing our chances for showers and storms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 735 PM EDT Saturday... Key Message: 1) Slightly cooler and cloudier tomorrow, with a low chance for rain from the Blue Ridge westward. A few showers developed earlier this afternoon west of Interstate 77, but this activity has quickly waned, with only one or two lingering showers in the Mountain Empire region, which too should fade within the next couple hours. Overall, forecast remains on track, only modest adjustments made to PoPs to account for previous and ongoing shower activity. Previous discussion below... As of 200 PM EDT Saturday... An upper level low was currently rotating over northern New England, with associated troughing impacting the eastern half of the CONUS. Short waves along with the left exit region of a 70+ knot mid level jet streak will move into the Mid Atlantic around the base of the trough, and this will provide cloud cover tonight into Sunday. Could see a few showers over the Southern Blue Ridge tonight but anything that reaches the ground will be light. High pressure at the surface will try to push in from the NNE through Sunday, and this will provide for mostly dry weather where it is strongest. However, on the edge of the high pressure, showers and isolated storms will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening from the Blue Ridge westward. No severe weather is expected with low moisture content (dew points in the 50s) and bulk shear only around 20 kts. QPF amounts will be quite low and less than a quarter inch for most. Temperatures were lowered tonight based on last night`s numbers, with little change in air mass expected. Expecting lows tonight in the upper 40s to upper 50s, and another fall-like day on Sunday with highs in the 60s and 70s. Could see some patchy fog where clouds aren`t anchored late tonight into early Sunday morning. Confidence in the near term is high. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 130 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: 1) Cool, fall-like temperatures persist 2) Quiet again to start the workweek By Monday, a wedge will be well entrenched against the mountains, and a mid-level trough will cover the eastern seaboard. The high causing the wedge will sink south as it slowly moves east on its way off the coast. This southward wobble ought to induce enough subsidence over us that despite the troughing, we won`t receive rain on Monday, and likely not even Tuesday. Temperatures will remain under the normal to kick off meteorological fall. Highs range from the upper 60s to the mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 130 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: 1) Active pattern starts up 2) Showers and storms late week For Wednesday, a shortwave embedded in the larger troughing pattern will intensify in the south. As it progresses toward the Mid- Atlantic as it makes its way around the trough,showers and a few thunderstorms will form up over the area, spreading from west to east. Directly behind this shortwave is a larger, well defined cold front which will bring widespread storms to the area on Thursday and Friday. Temperatures still remain below normal, with a slight warm spike on Thursday ahead of the cold front. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 730 PM EDT Saturday... VFR conditions remain across the area, and will continue through the majority of the current TAF period, ending at 00Z Monday. The exception to this will be patchy fog developing for KLWB for a few hours Sunday morning. Due to equipment issues overnight for KLWB, AMD NOT SKED has been added to the TAF. Ceilings will lower as cloud cover fills into the area from the southwest, still VFR for most, but MVFR likely west of Interstate 77, and skies will become mostly BKN to OVC through the afternoon Sunday. Showers will develop after 18Z Sunday, mainly over the southern Blue Ridge of southwest VA and northwest NC. Confidence is low that the showers will extend much farther north than the New River Valley, so have only included VCSH for KBLF and KBCB. Precipitation will wane by the end of the current TAF period. Winds will be light, up to 10 knots, and turn mostly easterly Sunday afternoon. Forecast confidence is moderate. .EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... VFR conditions should continue into next week, though some wedging of high pressure may bring enough moisture for a few showers/storms to the mountains late in the weekend into next week with potential sub-VFR cigs. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SH NEAR TERM...AS/SH SHORT TERM...VFJ LONG TERM...VFJ AVIATION...AS/SH