155
FXUS61 KRNK 031749
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
149 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend southward from New England across the
Mid-Atlantic, and remain wedged against the eastern face of the
Appalachians for much of the coming workweek, resulting in
windflow from the east to northeast. This pattern will support
cooler-than-average temperatures during this period, as well as
increased rain chances beginning Tuesday, as moist Atlantic air
is drawn across the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) Cool and dry on Monday

2) Another chance of overnight patchy fog

Conditions on Sunday will be similar to that of today with subtle
differences. Overnight there will be another chance of patchy fog,
especially in West Virginia and areas with saturated soils. Cloud
cover will vary for the next 24 hours so where clouds form overnight
will also factor into fog development. Early Monday morning
temperatures will be cooler with lows in the 50s for most of the
area. Highs will be a little warmer, however, with values in the mid-
70s to lower 80s. The surface wedge pattern will continue but a
trough will form over the Mississippi River and pass some vorticity
bands through the Mid-Atlantic. Given the dry air and more stable
environment, precipitation initiation from this source is very low.
Otherwise, it may get a little breezy during the afternoon and
evening hours of Monday with gusts between 10-15 mph from the east.

Confidence in this forecast is high.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1250 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) Keeping highs cooler than normal.

2) Expect increased rain chances.

Model solutions vary somewhat this period with GFS the driest.
Ensemble approach and pattern with high to the north and front over
the southeast/south will lend toward a moistening airmass with east
flow. Will lean toward keeping pops in the chance range, except over
the southern Blue Ridge into the Mountain Empire where better
forcing and upslope by Wednesday should see better coverage of
showers.

Will mainly be wedged in for most of the area so cloud cover will be
more plentiful as we head into Wednesday. This should limit
instability but a few storms are possible. Overall probability of
any hazardous weather (severe/flooding) should be low.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1250 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) Watching low off the southeast coast toward the weekend
interacting with frontal boundary.

2) Not a washout but not dry either while temperatures stay at or
below normal.

Upper pattern becomes rather stagnant with broad ridge over the
southeast with some weakness/troughiness at times over the area,
while high pressure remains situated over the northeast and a front
across the southeast. Some models start to develop a decent low off
the southeast coast by the weekend. At this time ensembles are
keeping it just a sub-tropical/low along a front, but something to
watch. Nonetheless, this system will oscillate here through the
period and provide moisture off the Atlantic. This will keep
showers/few storms chances around through Sunday but not seeing
widespread coverage or a pattern that yet shows it raining all the
time. This could change if coastal system is stronger or if the
front edges further north and west.

With the wedge in place and easterly flow at times, temperatures
will stay at or below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Sunday...

Most terminals currently at VFR and forecast to remain VFR for the
rest of the day. Cloud heights are expected to increase later today
with cloud cover ranging between few and scattered. The main
exception will be KLWB which may have lowering cloud heights
overnight in addition to fog which will degrade conditions to as low
as LIFR. Depending on cloud cover location, scattered patchy fog is
possible in the region, particularly at KBCB and KDAN overnight and
early Monday morning. Otherwise, when the sun rises it will
evaporate the fog by mid-Monday morning and keep VFR status for all
airports Monday afternoon.

Confidence in this forecast is moderate to high.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR conditions will trend for the next few days until later in
the week when additional moisture moves back into the region to
revamp precipitation chances.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...CG
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...CG