904
FXUS61 KRNK 171839
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
239 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will continue moving north of the area tonight as
a cold front approaches from the west. This same cold front
will continue to approach the region on Wednesday and cross the
area Thursday afternoon and evening. Showers and storms will be
commonplace until the cold front exits the region, and high
pressure arrives, providing for drier weather Friday and through
the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Tuesday...

Discussion corrected to change the end time of the flood watch
from 1AM to 10PM.

Key Points:

1. Severe storms with damaging wind gusts possible this evening.
2. Flood Watch continues for most of the region through 10PM EDT.
3. Redevelopment of showers/storms expected by mid-day Wednesday,
with greatest coverage over the mountains.

This afternoon showers have been developing primarily along and just
east of the crest of the Blue Ridge, southwest of Roanoke, and
heading east. Additionally activity has been along and north of a
line roughly from Lewisburg, WV to Lexington, VA. Coverage is
expected to expand within these areas, and points east. Movement has
been generally towards the northeast or east around 10 mph. The
potential exists for those storms which grow tall enough to generate
strong downdrafts. With how moist the soil has become in some areas
the past few days, winds which may not be at severe level may be
strong enough to down trees.  Additionally, as multiple showers and
storms potentially train across the same location, we will be
watching for the potential for localized flooding. As such, a flood
watch continues for most of the region until late this evening.

Much of the activity is expected to wane overnight. Lingering
showers will continue to be possible over primarily southeast West
Virginia. As winds trend light, there will be the potential for fog
development, especially within the river valleys and those locations
this evening which receive a generous amount of rain.

On Wednesday, we will remain within a warm/hot and humid airmass in
advance of an approaching cold front. Look for showers and storms to
start developing around mid-day over the mountains, and spread east
as the afternoon progresses.

Temperatures tonight and Wednesday are expected to average about
five degrees above normal for this time of year.

Confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate to high.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1) A cold front moves into our area Thursday afternoon, bringing
potential severe weather.

2) Above normal temperatures continue through the period.

Wednesday night will see any storms that developed during the day
taper off overnight, similarly to each day the past week or so.
Thursday will be the most active day of the period, as a strong cold
front approaches the area from the west. Showers will be possible
west of the Blue Ridge Thursday morning. By afternoon, daytime
heating along with the increased surface forcing from the front and
upper-level support from a longwave trough will provide a good
environment for severe storms to develop, particularly along/east of
the Blue Ridge. The SPC has our area in a slight risk on Thursday.
Exact hazards are still not fully certain, but for now, the biggest
threats are damaging winds and large hail.

Rainfall is not expected to be particularly heavy due to the quick
movement of the front, but with recent heavy rainfall across the
area, isolated flash flooding is still possible. Rainfall totals for
the event are expected to be around 0.25-0.50", with higher amounts
possible in the heaviest thunderstorms. The front moves through
Thursday night, with high pressure building in behind it across the
Mid-Atlantic Region, with quiet weather for Friday into the weekend.

Temperatures will be consistent, with upper 70s in the mountains and
80s along/west of the Blue Ridge Thursday and Friday. The Piedmont
will see low 90s Thursday reduce to the upper 80s for Friday. Lows
each night will mostly be in the 60s, though behind the front, the
highest elevations may fall into the upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1) Drier air will keep most areas quiet through the weekend into
next week.

2) A heat wave will begin across the region, with widespread 90s
expected.

High pressure both at the surface and aloft will set up over the
region and dominate the weather pattern through the entire period.
Mostly dry and quiet weather is expected, with only a stray storm
possible over the weekend, though this is looking less likely. By
Tuesday, high pressure at the surface remains firmly in place, but
the upper high shifts east, allowing an easterly flow aloft to drive
Atlantic moisture into the region. This will allow a few afternoon
thunderstorms to develop with the aid of diurnal heating,
particularly across Southwest VA and Northwest NC.

The heat will be the main talking point for next week, with
temperatures well above normal and a likely heat wave expected area-
wide. Highs will be in the mid 80s to low 90s for the first part of
the weekend, but continue to rise into early next week, with highs in
the upper 80s west of the Blue Ridge and upper 90s across the
Piedmont. Along with high humidity, heat indexes could reach 100-105
for the Piedmont. Lows will be fairly consistent, generally in the
60s to low 70s each morning.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Tuesday...

Diurnal cumulus convection with around or a little less than a
10 deg F surface dew point depression is yielding LCLs in the
MVFR to low end VFR range for this afternoon. Additionally, we
are starting to see an increased development of showers across
parts of the region with the potential for thunderstorms also
increasing.

As we head into the evening hours, coverage of both shra/tsra is
expected to increase, with some of the storms having the
potential for generating very gusty surface winds. Ceilings are
expected to remain within the MVFR to low end VFR range.

Overnight, convection will wane over much of the region. Parts
of southeast West Virginia may maintain lingering showers
through the night. Cloud bases are expected to trend lower, but
with limited areas actually having a true ceiling. The best
chances will be over parts of southeast West Virginia. Fog
development will be mostly likely within the river valleys and
where any robust thunderstorms deposit a healthy amount of
rainfall. IFR/MVFR visibilities are expected with any of the
fog.

Improvement to VFR is expected Wednesday morning for all but
some portions of southeast West Virginia east to perhaps the
KHSP region SW VA. Showers and storms are expected to develop
again on Wednesday by the late morning and expand in coverage,
especially over the mountains.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Showers and storms with sub-VFR conditions expected Wednesday
afternoon and evening.

Late night/early morning fog possible Wednesday night into
Thursday, especially within the river valleys where where
rainfall had been heavy.

Cold front crosses the area Thursday afternoon and evening.
Strong to severe storms possible. Continuation of sub-VFR
conditions within the heavier cells.

Drier and better chances of VFR conditions across most of
the region Friday through Sunday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for VAZ007-009>020-
     022>024-032>035-043>045.
NC...Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for NCZ001>005-
     018>020.
WV...Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for WVZ042>044-507-
     508.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...DS