Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
158 FXUS61 KRNK 161832 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 232 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... The weather pattern will remain very warm and muggy with a daily threat of showers and thunderstorms. Greatest concentration of storms today is expected over the mountains. A marginal risk of severe storms exists across West Virginia and into northern Virginia...north of Interstate 64. Near seasonal summer heat and humidity will persist. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 215 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: 1) Seasonal summer heat and humidity persists. 2) Another round of afternoon showers and storms Early afternoon convection has already begun in the mountainous zones of the forecast area. As we sit south of a boundary in a hot and humid airmass, there is plenty of available moisture and surface instability (from diurnal heating) to cause convection throughout the afternoon and into the evening hours. A broad ridge off the Carolina coast is building west a bit today, so there is some synoptic scale suppression in the Piedmont and central VA areas. The ridge is also providing southwesterly flow, so most storms that form today will have a southwesterly component to their motion. Most storm activity will occur along or west of the Blue Ridge where the influence of said ridge is not as strong and convection can occur more freely. The heaviest action will be further north into the Alleghany Front of the Appalachians and above, owing to the more northerly location of the boundary and the encroaching ridge to the southeast. Heavy rain is still expected with these storms, but it is not as concerning for flooding issues. Temperatures will warm and generally in the 80s across the region today. Expect even warmer temps on Thursday, and Heat indices to approach 100F in the Piedmont. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 102 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: 1) Confidence is high for scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. 2) Typical summertime heat and humidity should persist through the rest of this week. A cold front, caught in zonal flow, will stall across central West Virginia and northern Virginia through Saturday. Shortwaves tracking along this boundary will help bring afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms to the area. A few storms could become strong to severe over the foothills and Piedmont. The primary threat will be damaging wind gusts. PWATs are forecast to remain in the 1.50 to 2.00 inch range. Spotty strong storms could produce 1-2 inches of rain in less than an hour. Some isolated slow-moving storms may also drop 3+ inches of rain in an hour or two. With a wet weather pattern the last several days, there will likely remain a Marginal Risk for Flash Flooding each day along and east of the Blue Ridge. High temperatures will generally run around 5F warmer than normal with 80s across the mountains and lower 90s in the foothills and Piedmont. Overnight lows will remain muggy and about 10F warmer than normal. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 124 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: 1) Showers and thunderstorms chances remain into Monday. 2) A cold front may bring a couple of days of dry weather. A backdoor cold front will wedge south across the region Sunday into Monday. Another round of showers and thunderstorms are possible, but instabilities looks weak. If any strong storms would develop, it will likely occur along and south of the VA/NC border. If this wedge is strong enough and pushes into the Carolinas, Tuesday and Wednesday, possibly Thursday could be dry. Some slightly cooler than normal temperatures are expected next week. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 230 PM EDT Wednesday... Mostly VFR conditions throughout the area, with a few airports reporting MVFR cigs due to patches of rainfall or denser cloud cover. Winds are generally SW at 5-10kt, but will calm towards Thursday morning. Storm formation will be more concentrated in the mountains and less common east of the Blue Ridge. Storms will generate erratic wind gusts in their vicinity that could blow in directions other than the prevailing southwesterlies. Showers and storms will taper off overnight. Cigs will also lower in the early AM, potentially dropping below IFR conditions briefly. Thursday will be similar with storms beginning to fire in the early afternoon. .EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... The overall pattern remains stagnant for the remainder of this week with a warm and humid air mass providing daily chances of afternoon showers and thunderstorms and an overnight potential for patchy fog. In general, conditions expected to be VFR for most of this week with the exceptions being the aforementioned afternoon storms and overnight fog which will result in tempo sub-vfr conditions. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM NEAR TERM...VFJ SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...RCS AVIATION...PM/VFJ