881
FXUS61 KRNK 161720
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
120 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Expect dry weather through Saturday. A passing cold front on
Sunday may bring some light rain amounts to the region. Dry high
pressure returns again for the beginning of next week, and may
introduce wildfire concerns. Another potential cold front could
arrive as early as Wednesday next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Dry conditions with the potential for some frost tonight.

2) Seasonable and pleasant weather tomorrow.

Aloft, we remain in NW flow on the edge of ridging centered just
to our west, and low pressure moving from northern New England
to the eastern Atlantic. Dense high pressure over the Great
Lakes will translate southeast and center itself over the
southern/central Appalachians by Friday.

We will have a near-ideal radiational cooling conditions setup
tonight, with clear skies, light winds, and a dry and subsident
air mass in the area. A Frost Advisory remains in effect for the
Greenbrier Valley, Alleghany Highlands, and the southern
Shenandoah Valley late tonight into Friday morning. Elsewhere,
readings should be a bit warmer in the mid 30s to low 40s. On
Friday, winds come around to the WSW more, with some cirrus
overhead. Most locations should see high temperatures in the low
to mid 60s, with a few high 60s for the Piedmont and the warmer
urban areas.

Confidence in the near term is high.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1230 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Points:

1. Above normal temperatures.
2. Showers Sunday and early Sunday night.
3. Isolated storms in the west Sunday afternoon.
4. Gusty winds Sunday and Sunday night.

A look at the 16 Oct 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500mb Geopotential
Heights shows for Friday night a shortwave ridge extending from
the Tennessee Valley north into western Quebec. A trough of low
pressure is expected to extend from the Dakotas southwest into
the Four Corners region. A shortwave trough is will be
progressing across Alberta. For Saturday/Saturday night, the
shortwave ridge shifts east to over our region. The trough over
Alberta merges with the one over north-central CONUS forming a
single amplified trough extending from the Upper Mississippi
Valley south into the Central Plains. The tail of the trough
over the Four Corners are gets pinched off leaving a residual
weak are of closed low pressure. For Sunday/Sunday night, the
trough over the Central Plains heads eastward and becomes
negatively tilted from James Bay to over our region. A low may
also close off within this trough near the US/Canadian border. A
shortwave ridge moves into the Plains and a trough is expected
over the Pacific Northwest.

At the surface, for Friday night a ridge of high pressure is
expected to cover much of far eastern CONUS, centered over our
region. Low pressure will be moving east into western Ontario
with an associated cold front extending south into the Plains
States. For Saturday/Saturday night, the center of the ridge
shifts east into the western Atlantic, off the coast of the
Carolinas. The cold front is expected to head east and be over
the mid to upper Mississippi Valley by the early evening. For
Sunday/Sunday night, the front crosses our region and is
expected to be along the VA coast and eastern NC by the early
evening. A ridge of high pressure builds into the mid-
Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys in its wake.

A look at the 16 Oct 00Z NAEFS Ensemble Situational Awareness
data shows 850mb temperatures on Saturday around +14C. This
magnitude falls within the 90 to 97.5 percentile of the 30-year
CFSR climatology. For Sunday, values fall through the day,
reaching roughly +7C to +11C, nw-se, by the early evening hours.

The above weather patterns offers the following forecast. For
Saturday with high pressure starting the day over the area then
shifting east, we are still expecting a dry day. Temperatures
will be well above normal. Saturday night into Sunday, a cold
front will approach and then cross the region. We are expecting
first an increase in cloud cover Saturday night, with
potentially some isolated to scattered showers across far
western sections after midnight. The front crosses the region on
Sunday with the best chance of showers across the mountains.
The mountains also will be the location where isolated
thunderstorms will be possible. Sunday night showers conclude
west to east with drier air quickly returning to the region by
Monday morning. Winds will be on the gusty side immediately in
advance of the front, and behind the front Sunday night.
Temperatures will be cooler on Sunday as compared to Saturday,
but still above normal for this time of year.

Confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate to high.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1230 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Points:

1. Still a bit gusty on Monday but with dry conditions.
2. Isolated to scattered showers in the west on Tuesday.
3. Dry Wednesday and Thursday.
4. Above normal temperatures through the period.

A look a the 16 Oct 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500mb Geopotential
Heights shows for Monday/Monday night, a shortwave trough moves
from the mid-Atlantic region to over New England. Ridging
follows over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. A trough will be
on the heels of the shortwave ridge, with its axis over the
Central and Northern Plains states by the evening. For
Tuesday/Tuesday night, a shortwave ridge quickly crosses our
area with a shortwave trough to its west over the Mississippi
Valley by evening. For Wednesday/Wednesday night, the ensemble
solution trends the approaching shortwave trough into a broader
feature, with limited movement east of its axis compared to its
position on Tuesday. For Thursday, the ensembles offer a more
amplified solution to the trough`s depiction with its axis
extending from the near the Ontario/Quebec border southeast to
over the SE US.

At the surface, for Monday/Monday night, high pressure shifts
east from the Mississippi Valley to over the SE US.
Concurrently, low pressure develops over MN with an associated
cold front trailing south into TX. For Tuesday/Tuesday night,
the ensemble solution washes out a lot of detail that was
depicted for Monday`s synoptic pattern. The solutions offers a
trough moving across the Great Lakes region with nearly zonal
flow across our area. For Wednesday/Wednesday night, the
ensemble solutions continues with depicting a level of
troughiness progressing eastward through the Great Lakes with a
high centered over the mid-Mississippi Valley. For Thursday, the
pattern continues with an upper low/trough progressing along
the US/Canadian border with high pressure across the south-
central and and southeast portions of the US.

A look at the 16 Oct 00Z NAEFS Ensemble Situational Awareness
data shows 850mb temperatures for Monday trend upward a bit to
+8C to +10C, ne-sw. For Tuesday, values of +10C to +12C, nw-se,
are forecast. For Wednesday, look for a decrease with a range
of +5C to +7C expected. On Thursday, expect similar conditions
as compared to Wednesday.

The above weather patterns offers the following forecast. In the
wake of Sunday`s cold frontal passage, gusty northwest winds
will continue on Monday, but trend weaker as the day progresses.
Dry weather is expected on Monday with cooler temperatures as
compared to the weekend. A weak cold front will cross the region
on Tuesday, and bring isolated to scattered showers to mainly
western sections of the region. High pressure quickly returns by
Wednesday and Thursday with more dry weather. Temperatures
during this portion of the forecast will generally be above
average through the period with some fluctuation.

Confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1040 AM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions and mostly clear skies through period except for
possible morning FB/BR near LWB. Winds generally out of the
north to NW today under 10 kts then becoming mainly light to
calm overnight tonight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Cannot rule out fog at LWB in the typical 09-14z time frame,
but with drier airmass fog will be confined to near river
valleys. The next chance of rain will come Sunday into Monday
with periods of MVFR conditions possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 1230 PM EDT Thursday...

While confidence on this scenario is still not high, there is
increasing potential for an enhancement in fire danger on Sunday
afternoon, and then again Monday afternoon for portions of the
region. A cold front is expected to cross the region on Sunday. The
southeastern section of our forecast area will have the lowest
potential for receiving measurable rainfall. Winds are expected to
become gusty from the southwest (20 to 25 mph) in advance of this
front on Sunday afternoon, potentially prior to any measurable
rainfall but with minimum RHs in the lower 50s percent. On Monday,
after potentially not receiving a lot of rain Sunday into Sunday
night for this portion of the region, winds will still be gusty (15
to 20 mph) from the northwest with minimum RHs around 30 percent.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for VAZ020-024.
NC...None.
WV...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for WVZ507-508.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG/SH
NEAR TERM...SH
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...SH
FIRE WEATHER...DS