495
FXUS61 KRNK 201034
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
634 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Unsettled weather expected through midweek as a front
remains stalled over the region...temperatures trending cooler
by Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Unsettled weather expected through midweek as a
front remains stalled over the region...temperatures trending
cooler by Wednesday.

Warm front lifts north of us today, with frontal boundary
stalling along the Mason-Dixon line tonight. Models have SBCAPEs
of 1500-2000 J/kg this afternoon and could see a few strong
storms as forecast soundings indicate some drier air in the low
levels, so cannot rule out an isolated downburst. High res
model solutions seem to be concentrating the best coverage this
afternoon along/near the Blue Ridge Sunday, so will have higher
pops here.


Front tracks into our area Monday and pretty much meanders
between the Carolinas and southern Mid-Atlantic into midweek,
then the upper trough forces it southeast after Wednesday as it
digs in from the northwest. Rainfall amounts from today through
Wednesday should average around 1-2" per ensembles, with locally
higher amounts under any storms. This is much needed rainfall,
but if too much falls in short amounts of time, could see some
localized flooding concerns especially Monday-Tuesday.

Cooler air from the north with high pressure wedge will have
our highs Wednesday running 10 to 15 degrees below normal,
followed by a gradual return to near normal temperatures by the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
All observations are transmitting again.

Will likely see some sub-VFR cigs/vsbys at LWB between 12-14z
with showers in the area, with mainly VFR elsewhere, though some
sub-VFR cigs possible LYH through 13z.

Winds turn from the south to the west today. Should stay VFR,
with showers/storms widely scattered. Best coverage again
appears to be around the Blue Ridge so will keep VCTS in at
least for ROA/BCB east into the afternoon, then dry out this
evening. May see some IFR fog at LYH/LWB late tonight and will
depend on where it rains today.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Rain chances increase Monday and Tuesday with numerous to
widespread coverage. During this time expect periods of sub- VFR
conditions and potential heavy rain. Fog at night can also be
expected, especially in the mountain valleys.

Wedge of high pressure with front nearby will lead to likely
sub-VFR Wed and possibly Thursday, along with showers.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PM/WP
AVIATION...AS/PM/WP