860
FXUS61 KRNK 152318
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
718 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Adjust pops based on latest radar/convective model trends which
shows less coverage this evening.


Aviation updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
Key Message 1: Chances for strong storms and flash flooding
Sunday and possibly  Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1: Chances for strong storms and flash flooding
Sunday into Monday.

Some stronger storms earlier this afternoon in a weak shear but
higher CAPE environment brought some isolated trees down from
Tazewell and Smyth down into the NC foothills/piedmont.

Latest radar trends continue to show weakening showers over our
area. There is some upstream stronger storms over eastern KY,
but the near term environment shows a lacking support for strong
convection over our area, with better instability west of the
mountains.

Sunday looks to be a bit greater chance of severe development
than today as bulk shear looks to increase along with a possible
shortwave traversing the upper flow and a progged increase in
instability. We are outlooked with a Slight Risk mainly across
the northern CWA with a Marginal Risk most elsewhere. The
threats should remain focused on strong to damaging downburst
winds and heavy rain/localized flash flooding. Another shortwave
may allow for some enhanced development of convection overnight
Sunday as well.

Another upper disturbance looks to push across the area Monday along
with an attendance frontal boundary that will again allow for
daytime showers and storms. The stronger shear and instability may
be more confined to the southern CWA and SPC keeps the Marginal Risk
to our southern area as well. Behind this front we will at least see
a pattern shift with a drier airmass and more zonal flow aloft which
will allow for a dry midweek. This is relatively shortlived however
as moisture and potential disturbances allow for shower and storm
chances back by Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Showers will be fading later this evening, but could have some
in VC of BCB/ROA/BLF/LYH before trends weaken. Overall looks VFR
this evening but then cigs/vsbys start to lower overnight with
stratus possible sending ceilings under 1kft at most sites.

Cannot rule out a few clusters of showers north of a LWB-LYH
line late tonight but kept out of tafs for now.

As we scatter out the low stuff after 13-14z, afternoon looks
like scattered convection again, but main area will again be
along/north of LWB-LYH. Have kept VC out of tafs now for that
far out. Expect VFR SCT-BKN cumulus/TCU in the afternoon.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Pattern trend continues with chances
for storms Monday then dry for Tuesday/Wednesday. Mainly VFR outside
of any storms and late night fog/stratus. Another front tracks
in Thursday with another shower/storm threat.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AB/WP
AVIATION...AB/WP