986
FNUS71 KRNK 230951
FWSRNK

Spot Forecast for Back Creek Wildfire...USFS
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
451 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0600 EST on November 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Dry conditions are forecast through Monday night day as high
pressure makes its way east from the central Plains region.
Minimum RH values today drop to around 40 to 55 percent at the
fire site beginning late morning into this afternoon, with recovery
into the 65 to 80 percent range overnight. , and drop to 28 to 35
percent Monday afternoon at the fire site. Winds will be WNW with
speeds less than 10 mph, however gusts will range from 15 mph to
locally 25 mph at times today, become lighter Monday, and then
gusty again Tuesday ahead of the next weather system. The next
wetting rain chance will be Tuesday through Wednesday night.


.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent). Patchy fog early in the
                    morning.
CWR (0.01 in).......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 54.
Min humidity........41 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming west 5 to 7 mph with gusts
                    to around 18 mph in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......3800 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........West 5 to 12 mph increasing to northwest 20 to
                    29 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3300 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (91900 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................5 early in the morning increasing to 102 in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (EST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........20  19  18  21  15  10  10  7   5   7   9   9
Weather cov.....PTY
Weather type....FOG
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............38  39  40  43  48  52  53  54  54  54  52  50
RH..............95  92  83  74  61  51  48  45  47  41  42  46
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW  W
20 FT wind spd..2   2   2   3   5   6   6   7   6   6   6   5
20 FT wind gust.6   6   10  11  13  16  18  18  18  18  18  16
Mix hgt (kft)...0.8 0.8 0.9 1.3 2.3 2.9 3.5 3.8 3.7 3.5 2.9 1.9
Mixng wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW
Mixng wind spd..6   5   6   8   12  17  23  28  29  28  24  20
LVORI...........7   6   4   3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............6   5   7   14  32  54  81  100 102 95  76  47
VRate mph-ft/1K.4   4   5   11  27  50  82  104 106 95  70  37

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
CWR (0.01 in).......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 29.
Max humidity........85 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......As low as 700 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Northwest 6 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (17300 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (3300 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................2 to 7.

TIME (EST)      6 PM         10 PM        2 AM
Sky (%).........8            7            6
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE         NONE         NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0            0            0
Temp............45           39           33
RH..............55           74           83
20 FT wind......W 4G14       W 2G8        W 1G6
Mix hgt (ft)....1300         1100         1000
Mixing wind......NW 15        NW 9         NW 9
LVORI...........3            3            5
ADI.............7            4            4
VRate mph-ft/1K.20           10           9

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
CWR (0.01 in).......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 57.
Min humidity........27 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......2700 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Northwest 1 to 5 mph shifting to the south 6 to
                    9 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1200 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (20600 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................2 to 30.

TIME (EST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........8   9   3   11  18  25  31  38  41  45  48  52
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............31  30  32  38  46  51  54  56  57  56  54  51
RH..............85  85  83  65  48  38  32  28  27  28  31  36
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..1   1   1   1   1   2   2   3   3   3   3   2
20 FT wind gust.5   5   4   4   4   4   6   6   6   7   7   7
Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 0.8 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.4 2.7 2.2 1.6 1.4
Mixng wind dir..NW  NW  NW  W   W   SW  S   S   S   S   S   S
Mixng wind spd..5   5   3   1   1   3   6   8   9   9   8   7
LVORI...........5   5   5   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
ADI.............5   5   3   2   2   6   14  25  30  24  17  12
VRate mph-ft/1K.4   3   2   1   1   5   11  20  24  19  13  9

$$

Forecaster...Hanes
Requested by...Marcus Sewell
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2526163.5/RNK
.DELDT 11/23/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Marcus.sewell@usda.gov