034
FNUS71 KRNK 151302
FWSRNK

Spot Forecast for blue bend pile...USFS
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
802 AM EST Wed Jan 15 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EST on January 15.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Sunshine and cold temperatures today, with west winds under 10 mph.
Clouds increase tonight with snow showers expected Thursday.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
CWR (0.01 in).......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 24.
Min humidity........46 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 6 mph.
Mixing height.......2100 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Northwest 9 to 12 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (8200 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (21300 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................10 to 30.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (EST)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........3   3   3   4   5   4   2   3
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............14  17  20  22  23  24  23  21
RH..............63  57  53  50  47  46  47  52
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..5   5   6   6   6   6   6   5
20 FT wind gust.11  11  11  10  11  11  11  10
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 1.4 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.0 0.9
Mixng wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Mixng wind spd..9   9   9   10  12  12  12  10
LVORI...........2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
ADI.............13  17  22  25  28  30  28  10
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
VRate mph-ft/1K.10  13  18  20  23  24  23  9

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (45-55 percent).
CWR (0.01 in).......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 7 above.
Max humidity........84 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........West 5 to 9 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1400 knot-ft).
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................2 to 4.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........4   8   8   8   7   7   7   8   16  26  41  52
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............17  14  13  12  10  10  9   8   8   9   9   10
RH..............61  69  72  74  78  80  82  83  84  83  81  79
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..4   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
20 FT wind gust.8   7   6   6   6   6   6   6   5   5   5   6
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Mixng wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Mixng wind spd..9   8   7   6   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
LVORI...........3   3   3   3   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   4
ADI.............4   4   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
VRate mph-ft/1K.5   4   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Slight chance of
                    snow early in the morning. Chance of snow in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
CWR (0.01 in).......10 percent increasing to 50 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 35.
Min humidity........68 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming west 5 to 9 mph with gusts
                    to around 22 mph in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......2700 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Southwest 5 to 12 mph increasing to west 26 to
                    28 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1700 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (63000 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................3 early in the morning increasing to 62 in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........57  64  62  70  66  72  75  94  89  84  79  78
Weather cov.....        SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....        SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN
Tstm cov........
CWR.............10  10  20  20  50  50  50  50  50  50  50  50
Temp............11  13  14  19  24  28  31  33  35  35  35  34
RH..............80  75  83  77  71  72  72  71  70  68  68  69
20 FT wind dir..W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..3   3   4   5   6   7   8   8   9   9   9   9
20 FT wind gust.6   10  11  13  16  18  18  20  20  21  21  22
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.8 2.3 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.3
Mixng wind dir..W   W   W   SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Mixng wind spd..5   5   6   8   12  16  21  25  28  28  28  26
LVORI...........5   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   1   1   1   1
ADI.............3   4   7   9   17  29  44  57  61  62  61  56
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
VRate mph-ft/1K.2   2   3   7   15  29  49  68  72  72  70  62

$$
Forecaster...Perry
Requested by...Zachary collins
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2500667.0/RNK
.DELDT 01/15/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Zachary.collins2@usda.gov