786
FNUS71 KRNK 181121
FWSRNK

Spot Forecast for Back Creek Wildfire...USFS
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
621 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0900 EST on November 18.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Not as windy today, but RH will drop toward 30 percent by 2pm.
Clouds increase and lower through the day with wetting rain moving
in by this evening. This will be the last day for the week of
lower RH as pattern favors increasing moisture, but rain chances
subside Wed-Thu then return Friday into Saturday.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain
                    in the afternoon.
CWR (0.01 in).......10 percent increasing to 40 percent late in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 48.
Min humidity........31 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......1900 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Southwest around 3 mph shifting to the south 5
                    to 7 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2500 knot-ft).
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................3 to 15.

TIME (EST)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........56  76  80  86  90  90  94  96  97
Weather cov.....            SCH CHC CHC     SCH CHC
Weather type....            RN  RN  RN      RN  RN
Tstm cov........
CWR.............10  10  10  20  30  30  10  20  40
Temp............37  41  43  44  48  48  48  48  47
RH..............52  42  39  38  31  37  38  41  44
20 FT wind dir..N   SW  S   S   S   S   SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..0   1   2   3   3   3   3   3   3
20 FT wind gust.    2       4   5   5   5   5   4
Mix hgt (kft)...1.0 1.4 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.4 1.0
Mixng wind dir..SW  SW  SW  S   SE  S   S   S   S
Mixng wind spd..3   3   3   5   5   6   7   7   7
LVORI...........2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
ADI.............3   6   8   10  11  13  15  12  8
VRate mph-ft/1K.3   5   7   8   9   10  12  10  6

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Rain in the
                    evening, endng overnight.
CWR (0.01 in).......80 percent in the evening, then decreasing
                    to 10 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 39.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......800 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Southeast 3 to 6 mph shifting to the west 3 to 5
                    mph after 3 am.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (500 knot-ft).
LVORI...............6.
ADI.................0 to 3.

TIME (EST)      6 PM         10 PM        2 AM
Sky (%).........96           94           64
Weather cov.....CHANCE       DEFNTE       S CHC
Weather type....RAIN         RAIN         RAIN
Tstm cov........
CWR.............50           80           20
Temp............46           43           41
RH..............48           67           100
20 FT wind......SE 3G5       N 1G6        SW 1G6
Mix hgt (ft)....800          800          800
Mixing wind......SE 6         NE 1         SW 2
LVORI...........2            4            10
ADI.............3            1            1
VRate mph-ft/1K.5            1            2

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent).
CWR (0.01 in).......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 60.
Min humidity........59 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......2900 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........West 3 to 6 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2800 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (14400 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............6.
ADI.................4 to 18.

TIME (EST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........52  44  44  54  63  63  64  64  62  60  58  61
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............42  40  43  47  51  54  57  58  60  60  59  57
RH..............100 98  100 93  83  75  69  64  61  59  60  66
20 FT wind dir..W   W   NW  NW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..1   1   1   1   2   2   3   3   3   3   2   2
20 FT wind gust.6   6   6   6   6   6   7   7   8   7   7   6
Mix hgt (kft)...0.8 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.5 2.0 2.4 2.9 2.6 2.4 2.2 1.8
Mixng wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Mixng wind spd..5   5   5   3   3   5   5   6   6   6   6   6
LVORI...........9   9   9   6   4   4   3   2   2   2   2   3
ADI.............4   5   4   5   7   10  14  18  18  17  15  12
VRate mph-ft/1K.4   4   3   4   5   8   12  17  16  14  13  10

$$
Forecaster...Perry
Requested by...Marcus Sewell
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2526163.0/RNK
.DELDT 11/18/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Marcus.sewell@usda.gov