547
FNUS71 KRNK 221037
FWSRNK

Spot Forecast for Back Creek Wildfire...USFS
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
537 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0630 EST on November 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Showers this morning will give way to increasing sunshine
by the afternoon. Sunday and Monday will be dry with
lower RH. Another system arrives with wetting rain over
the site Tuesday into Wednesday.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent) then becoming mostly
                    sunny (40-50 percent). Patchy fog early in the
                    morning. Rain showers early in the morning,
                    tapering off before noon.
CWR (0.01 in).......100 percent decreasing to 10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 61.
Min humidity........63 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming northwest 5 to 6 mph late
                    in the morning, then becoming light late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......3900 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Northwest 3 to 10 mph increasing to 10 to 16
                    mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3100 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (49700 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............5.
ADI.................5 early in the morning increasing to 53 in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (EST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........100 92  90  87  80  81  83  61  43  41  32  27
Weather cov.....DEF DEF SCT ISO
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RNF
Tstm cov........
CWR.............80  100 30  20  10  10  10  10  0   0   0   0
Temp............53  53  53  55  58  60  60  60  60  60  58  55
RH..............100 97  100 94  83  77  73  68  66  63  65  73
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..3   3   3   4   4   5   6   6   6   6   5   4
20 FT wind gust.5   6   6   6   6   10  12  12  11  10  8   7
Mix hgt (kft)...0.9 0.8 1.0 1.6 2.8 3.9 3.5 3.3 3.5 3.2 2.7 1.6
Mixng wind dir..W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Mixng wind spd..3   5   7   10  13  15  16  16  15  14  12  10
LVORI...........9   7   8   5   4   3   3   1   1   1   3   3
ADI.............5   5   9   17  29  40  41  41  53  44  34  22
VRate mph-ft/1K.4   4   7   16  36  57  55  54  53  43  31  17

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent). Patchy fog in
                    the late evening and overnight.
CWR (0.01 in).......10 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 36.
Max humidity........96 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......900 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Northwest 6 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (4400 knot-ft).
LVORI...............5.
ADI.................2 to 4.

TIME (EST)      6 PM         10 PM        2 AM
Sky (%).........36           25           35
Weather cov.....             PATCHY
Weather type....NONE         FOG          NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0            0            0
Temp............51           46           41
RH..............81           88           94
20 FT wind......NW 4G6       NW 1G6       W 1G5
Mix hgt (ft)....1300         1100         1000
Mixing wind......NW 10        NW 6         NW 6
LVORI...........4            6            6
ADI.............4            3            3
VRate mph-ft/1K.13           6            6

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
CWR (0.01 in).......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 55.
Min humidity........44 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming west 5 to 6 mph with gusts
                    to around 17 mph late in the morning.
Mixing height.......3800 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........West 6 to 13 mph increasing to 17 to 23 mph
                    late in the morning, then shifting to the
                    northwest 24 to 31 mph in the afternoon
                    decreasing to around 20 mph late in the
                    afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (4300 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (103000 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................7 early in the morning increasing to 113 in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (EST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........18  17  12  14  15  14  14  13  10  6   3   3
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............36  36  37  42  49  53  54  55  55  54  52  50
RH..............96  90  93  79  62  54  49  47  45  45  48  52
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..2   2   2   3   4   5   6   6   6   6   6   5
20 FT wind gust.6   6   8   10  11  13  14  17  17  17  17  16
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 0.9 1.0 1.9 2.7 3.2 3.5 3.8 3.6 3.3 3.1 2.5
Mixng wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW
Mixng wind spd..6   6   8   13  17  23  28  31  31  28  24  20
LVORI...........6   5   5   3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............7   7   12  31  51  76  98  113 108 95  79  57
VRate mph-ft/1K.6   5   9   24  46  73  98  118 110 93  75  50

$$
Forecaster...Perry
Requested by...Marcus Sewell
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2526163.4/RNK
.DELDT 11/22/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Marcus.sewell@usda.gov