553
FNUS71 KRNK 142301
FWSRNK

Spot Forecast for Bald Mountain...USFS
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
601 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1700 EST on November 14.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Winds will remain out of the west for the remainder of today and
through Saturday, but wind gusts will increase to over 15 mph
after midnight tonight, increasing to over 20 mph by Saturday
afternoon and into Sunday, but could be closer to 30 mph along the
ridges.

Moisture will increase somewhat ahead of the next approaching
system, and will support higher minimum relative humidities
Saturday afternoon, in the low to mid 50% range. This moisture
increase will also lead to increasing cloud cover through
Saturday, with skies becoming overcast by around noon or so
Saturday. However, by Sunday, expecting humidity to drop back into
the low to mid 30% with dry air returning to the region. Overall,
Sunday looks to be a more concerning day than Saturday at this
time, with the combination of lower RHs and lingering gusty winds.

There is a slight chance of light precipitation for the burn area
late Saturday into Sunday, but less than a 20% probability of
receiving at least a tenth of an inch of rain.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (45-55 percent).
CWR (0.01 in).......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 50.
Max humidity........79 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming west 6 to 8 mph with gusts
                    to around 16 mph.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........West 3 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1100 knot-ft).
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................2 to 7.

TIME (EST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........27  25  23  21  24  28  31  34  31  45  53  51
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............53  50  50  50  50  51  51  51  51  51  51  52
RH..............39  43  45  46  50  51  55  60  64  68  74  72
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..4   6   6   7   7   8   8   8   8   8   8   8
20 FT wind gust.6   7   10  10  12  13  13  13  14  14  14  16
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5
Mixng wind dir..SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Mixng wind spd..5   3   3   6   7   7   7   7   8   9   10  9
LVORI...........2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3
ADI.............2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   4   6   7   6
VRate mph-ft/1K.2   1   2   2   4   4   4   4   5   6   6   5

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (80-90 percent).
CWR (0.01 in).......10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 66.
Min humidity........55 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 8 to 9 mph with gusts to around 22
                    mph.
Mixing height.......3500 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........West 8 to 16 mph increasing to 16 to 22 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3500 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (65800 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................8 early in the morning increasing to 56 in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (EST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........50  46  54  81  84  88  94  97  96  95  93  72
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10  0   0
Temp............52  52  54  57  59  62  64  65  65  66  64  63
RH..............75  79  77  73  70  66  61  60  59  55  58  60
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..9   9   9   9   9   9   9   8   9   8   9   8
20 FT wind gust.16  17  19  21  22  20  19  19  18  18  18  19
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.6 2.3 3.1 3.2 3.5 3.2 2.0 1.7
Mixng wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW
Mixng wind spd..8   8   9   10  13  16  20  22  22  21  18  16
LVORI...........4   4   4   3   3   3   1   1   1   1   1   2
ADI.............9   8   9   13  21  33  47  54  56  51  35  27
VRate mph-ft/1K.4   4   6   10  20  37  60  71  76  66  36  26

$$
Forecaster...Sava
Requested by...Brian Borden
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2525894.2/RNK
.DELDT 11/14/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL brian.theiler@usda.gov,vavic@firenet.gov,jselby@blm.gov