738
FNUS71 KRNK 162145
FWSRNK

Spot Forecast for Bald Mountain...USFS
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
445 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1600 EST on November 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...

Key Messages:

1) Critical fire weather conditions continue through this
   evening.

2) A heightened risk of fire danger continues on Monday.

After a frontal boundary moved through earlier today, northwest
winds have remained strong this afternoon. A Red Flag Warning
remains in effect until 6pm this evening. Winds will remain gusty
into the evening hours, though they will lower slightly. Winds of
10-15 mph continue through the night, with gusts of  30-35+ mph
possible. Dewpoints also will continue to fall through the night,
likely into the mid teens.

Little changes for tomorrow either, as dewpoints fall down into the
low teens, with strong wind gusts tomorrow morning of 30-40 mph.
The combination of strong winds, sunny skies, low RH values in the
mid 20s, and dry fuels on the ground will result in a critical fire
weather day once again. This continued fire weather concern will
likely lead to a fire weather SPS for much of the area on Monday.
By late afternoon, wind gusts reduce to under 20 mph heading into
Monday evening.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
CWR (0.01 in).......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 56.
Min humidity........33 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds around 11 mph with gusts to
                    around 29 mph.
Mixing height.......3900 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Northwest 31 to 37 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (59600 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (124800 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............1.
ADI.................82 early in the morning increasing to 136 in
                    the afternoon.

TIME (EST)      4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........1   5
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0
Temp............49  47
RH..............34  33
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..11  11
20 FT wind gust.29  29
Mix hgt (kft)...3.9 2.2
Mixng wind dir..NW  NW
Mixng wind spd..37  31
LVORI...........1   1
ADI.............136 82
VRate mph-ft/1K.144 69

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
CWR (0.01 in).......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 33.
Max humidity........50 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 9 to 11 mph with gusts to
                    around 29 mph.
Mixing height.......900 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Northwest 15 to 24 mph decreasing to 14 to 16
                    mph in the late evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (24000 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (11800 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................10 to 22.

TIME (EST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........4   3   3   4   4   5   3   3   1   4   3   4
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............44  42  42  41  40  40  39  37  37  36  34  34
RH..............37  39  37  40  41  42  43  45  46  46  48  49
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..11  11  11  11  11  11  10  9   9   9   9   9
20 FT wind gust.29  28  28  29  26  26  26  25  26  26  26  26
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9
Mixng wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Mixng wind spd..24  18  15  14  14  14  15  16  16  16  16  15
LVORI...........2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
ADI.............22  16  14  13  12  13  14  11  11  11  11  10
VRate mph-ft/1K.28  20  17  14  15  15  17  16  15  15  16  14

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
CWR (0.01 in).......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 49.
Min humidity........25 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 6 to 8 mph with gusts to around
                    30 mph.
Mixing height.......3000 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Northwest 15 to 23 mph increasing to 18 to 26
                    mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (11600 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (65100 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................15 early in the morning increasing to 82 in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (EST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........2   1   2   2   2   1   6   6   6   4   2   6
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............33  33  34  37  39  42  45  47  47  48  47  45
RH..............50  49  47  42  38  34  30  28  28  25  27  29
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..8   8   8   8   8   8   8   7   7   7   6   6
20 FT wind gust.25  30  30  29  28  26  25  24  24  22  21  20
Mix hgt (kft)...0.9 0.9 1.6 2.1 2.5 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.7 1.4
Mixng wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  W   NW
Mixng wind spd..15  15  18  23  26  26  25  24  24  23  22  18
LVORI...........2   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............15  16  37  59  77  82  81  77  77  74  74  34
VRate mph-ft/1K.13  14  29  48  67  75  75  72  72  68  60  26

$$
Forecaster...Burroughs
Requested by...Brian Borden
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2526052.0/RNK
.DELDT 11/16/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jselby@blm.gov,vavac@firenet.gov,brian.theiler@fs.fed,rnk.skywarn@noaa.gov