649
FNUS71 KRNK 201042
FWSRNK

Spot Forecast for Back Creek Wildfire...USFS
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
542 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0630 EST on November 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
You can expect low clouds/fog over the site this morning, then sunshine
peeks out by mid afternoon. RH will stay elevated, and 20 foot
winds will be mainly under 10 mph. Should see clouds increase
again tonight with wetting rains likely by Friday morning.
Rain chances remain into Saturday before it dries out again
over the weekend. Still not expecting any wind/low RH concerns for the
few days.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent) then becoming partly
                    sunny (60-70 percent). Patchy fog early in the
                    morning.
CWR (0.01 in).......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 55.
Min humidity........75 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......2600 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........South 5 to 6 mph shifting to the west 7 to 10
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (6400 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (19200 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............6.
ADI.................8 to 24.

TIME (EST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........100 100 100 100 100 100 100 93  82  76  67  64
Weather cov.....PTY PTY PTY PTY
Weather type....FOG FOG FOG FOG
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............42  42  42  43  46  48  50  52  53  54  53  52
RH..............99  100 100 95  91  87  82  80  77  76  77  82
20 FT wind dir..SE  S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W
20 FT wind spd..1   1   1   1   2   2   3   4   4   4   3   3
20 FT wind gust.4   5   5   6   6   6   7   8   8   7   7   6
Mix hgt (kft)...1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.5 2.6 2.5 1.9 1.2
Mixng wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W
Mixng wind spd..6   6   6   5   5   5   5   5   7   9   10  10
LVORI...........8   8   8   6   5   5   4   4   4   3   3   4
ADI.............9   9   8   8   8   8   8   10  15  19  24  15
VRate mph-ft/1K.8   8   7   7   8   8   9   12  17  22  20  12

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Chance of rain
                    early in the morning.
CWR (0.01 in).......10 percent increasing to 40 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 43.
Max humidity........99 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......800 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........West 2 to 9 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1600 knot-ft).
LVORI...............6.
ADI.................1 to 4.

TIME (EST)      6 PM         10 PM        2 AM
Sky (%).........72           83           86
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE         NONE         NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0            10           10
Temp............50           46           45
RH..............88           92           91
20 FT wind......W 2G5        S 1          SW 1
Mix hgt (ft)....900          1000         800
Mixing wind......W 9          W 6          W 2
LVORI...........5            6            7
ADI.............4            3            1
VRate mph-ft/1K.8            6            2

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Rain.
CWR (0.01 in).......60 percent increasing to 80 percent in the
                    morning, then decreasing to 70 percent in the
                    afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 59.
Min humidity........80 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......1300 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Southwest around 2 mph increasing to around 5
                    mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1300 knot-ft).
LVORI...............7.
ADI.................2 to 8.

TIME (EST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........100 100 92  93  94  95  95  96  94  92  90  91
Weather cov.....LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN
Tstm cov........
CWR.............60  80  80  80  80  80  80  70  70  70  70  70
Temp............45  45  46  48  51  53  55  56  58  58  58  58
RH..............93  95  99  97  92  88  85  83  81  80  81  83
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..1   1   1   1   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3
20 FT wind gust.2   5   5   5   6   6   7   7   8   10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.8 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0
Mixng wind dir..W   W   SW  S   S   S   SW  W   SW  SW  SW  SW
Mixng wind spd..2   2   2   2   2   3   3   5   5   5   5   5
LVORI...........6   8   10  8   6   5   4   4   4   4   4   5
ADI.............3   3   2   2   2   4   6   8   8   7   6   6
VRate mph-ft/1K.2   2   1   2   2   3   5   6   6   6   5   5

$$
Forecaster...Perry
Requested by...Marcus Sewell
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2526163.2/RNK
.DELDT 11/20/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Marcus.sewell@usda.gov