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AGUS76 KRSA 111735
HMDRSA

Hydrometeorological Discussion
National Weather Service / California Nevada RFC / Sacramento CA
1035 AM PDT Sat Oct 11 2025

...SHOWERS MAINLY IN SRN OR/NRN CA/ERN NV TODAY...
...WIDESPREAD PRECIP/HEAVY AT TIMES/STARTING SUN NIGHT AND LASTING
THROUGH THU...

.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (SAT AM - FRI AM)...

Showers should continue today across southern OR and far northern CA
and perhaps the Sierra near the crest as an upper trough moves
across that region.  Moisture in place over NE NV combined with the
upper forcing from the trough should continue showers across eastern
NV as well.  Freezing levels 6000-8000 ft are expected across
northern CA and southern OR, with freezing levels 9000 ft and above
for eastern NV.

Regarding the next system for generally the first half of next week,
models show decent agreement regarding the upper low dropping south
near or just off the coast with an associated cold front ahead of
the low.  Due to onshore moisture flux/orographics and strong
forcing aloft, periods of heavy precipitation are expected Mon-Tue
for much of CA except the far southern portion as a band moves
generally southward. Expect precip to lower in intensity by later
Tue as the best forcing aloft with the upper low moves east and
separates from the front continuing to move SE.  Overall, NBM/WPC
guidance seemed fairly adequate, except we blended in GFS/ECMWF
guidance for the transverse ranges of southern CA into the far
southern Sierra for Tue to incorporate higher amounts, which showed
up in a number of ensemble members as well.  Expect freezing levels
to start 7000-10000 ft and lower to 6500-8000 ft behind the front,
although not much drop is expected in far southern CA.  Drier
conditions are expected for the second half of next week.


Please Note: This product may NOT be routinely updated this
summer. Please refer to the following product issued by the CNRFC
www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/Daily-Briefing for a graphical summary of
weather and hydrologic conditions.

QPF graphics are available at www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/qpf.php



KL

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