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AGUS76 KRSA 051528
HMDRSA

Hydrometeorological Discussion
National Weather Service / California-Nevada RFC / Sacramento CA
730 AM PST Thu Nov 5 2026

...CHANCES OF SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTH COAST SAT PM TO SUN AND
AGAIN ON MON WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ELSEWHERE...

.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (SHORT TERM: THU AM - WED AM)...

A shortwave continues to pass through the west coast this morning
with a few showers seen on radar over ne NV. Observations over the
past 24 hours for areas that received precip reported roughly 0.10-
0.50". As the current trough moves through the rest of today, high
pressure will take its place offshore expanding overhead the rest of
the week and into the weekend. This will bring dry conditions and
kick off some warming with temperature anomalies of +5 to +10 deg F
or so above seasonal normals. As we sit under the ridge Saturday, a
large upper low will move across the Gulf of Alaska towards BC
sending a front into the PacNW. The southern edge of that front
looks to scrape nrn CA on Sunday resulting in some showers along the
north coast starting Saturday night. Any showers should end by the
late afternoon, and not expecting more than 0.10-0.30" or so. The
ECMWF then has another system heading into the PacNW for Monday with
showers again reaching the north coast while the GFS does not.
Enough ensemble members show showers to make it into the NBM. The
official forecast has less than 0.10" across the north coast for
Monday and about 0.20" in the Smith Basin. The rest of the region
should remain dry under high pressure through the period.

Looking into the longer term, outlooks continue to show a shift to a
more active pattern later next week. The CW3E AR Landfall tool shows
the majority of the incoming moisture north of the CA border and not
much south of Cape Mendocino. Ensembles at Blue Canyon in the
northern Sierra show a wide range of possibilities that far out.
Will continue to keep an eye on the coming weather.


Please Note: This product may NOT be routinely updated.
Please refer to the following product issued by the CNRFC
www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/Daily-Briefing for a graphical summary of
weather and hydrologic conditions.

QPF graphics are available at www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/qpf.php



AS

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