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AGUS76 KRSA 051510
HMDRSA

Hydrometeorological Discussion
National Weather Service / California Nevada RFC / Sacramento CA
710 AM PST Wed Nov 5 2025

...TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY PRECIP ACROSS NRN/CNTRL CA TODAY WITH T-STORMS OVER PARTS OF
NRN CA...
...ANOTHER MOISTURE SURGE TO BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIP TO THE N COAST
FOR THURSDAY BEFORE DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...

.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (WED AM - TUE AM)...

Radar imagery is capturing a band of precip moving through nrn/cntrl
CA this morning as tropical moisture is funneled into the coast by a
broad upper trough just offshore. TPW satellite shows this band of
moisture with a core of around 1.50" PW as the 12z morning sounding
out of KOAK reported 1.02" PW. Satellite and lightning detection are
also recording lightning strikes just off the coast of Cape
Mendocino and further offshore of the north coast. Observations
overnight show precip amounts between about 0.50-2.50" with the
highest amounts over Shasta and the King Range followed by the north
coast. The heaviest precip today is expected through this morning
before becoming more scattered and convective behind the main front
and as the core of the moisture plume travels into central/southern
CA. HREF exceedance probabilities show upwards of a 75% chance of
0.50"+/hr rain rates associated with the main precip band and about
5-10% chance of 1"/hr particularly over the northern Sierra.
Orographics will continue to enhance precip over the
northern/central Sierra, Shasta, and parts of the central coast
mountains through the afternoon beginning to taper down tonight.
Thunderstorms are also expected over nrn CA, particularly along the
north coast. By the time the moisture plume reaches coastal soCal,
models have it pulling offshore preventing all but a few showers
here and there.

Another surge of moisture will rotate into the coast later Thursday
morning providing an additional push of more moderate to locally
heavy precip in the afternoon and evening. Highest amounts along the
north coast quickly diminishing south of Cape Mendocino and inland
to Shasta. Some light lingering showers over nrn CA Friday morning
before dry conditions return through the weekend as high pressure
builds in. Sunday, models have an elongated trough moving towards BC
with the southern half of this system eventually breaking off into
an upper low west of CA. For the moment, models have the low
meandering about offshore through the rest of the forecast period
before heading our way some time there-after. The majority of
ensembles agree as well on things staying dry until either Wednesday
or Thursday.

Freezing levels about 7-10 kft north of I-80 mid morning and 9-13
kft from I-80 to the southern Sierra. Levels will hover around there
most of today before rising again into Thursday back up to 8.5-12 kft
north of I-80. Friday once the precip has ended freezing levels will
rise more broadly across the region as high pressure returns.

Please Note: This product may NOT be routinely updated.
Please refer to the following product issued by the CNRFC
www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/Daily-Briefing for a graphical summary of
weather and hydrologic conditions.

QPF graphics are available at www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/qpf.php



AS

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