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AGUS76 KRSA 252029
HMDRSA

Hydrometeorological Discussion
National Weather Service / California Nevada RFC / Sacramento CA
1230 PM PST Tue Nov 25 2025

...A SYSTEM MOVING IN TO THE PACNW ON THURS MAY BRING LIGHT SHOWERS
TO THE NORTH COAST...
...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THANKSGIVING BEFORE POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP THIS WEEKEND, LOW CONFIDENCE...

.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (TUE PM - MON AM)...

No major changes to the afternoon forecast. Still expecting dry
conditions for most areas the rest of the week as high pressure
remains overhead. Chance of light showers on Thursday along the
north coast and the crest of the srn OR Cascades as a low moves into
the PacNW. Uncertainty remains for the coming weekend as models try
and pin down the particulars regarding a low to our west and a
slider to our east. The 12z ECMWF is wetter than its predecessors
with that slider digging in deeper into the region spreading more
widespread showers across srn CA/NV than in previous runs. The 12z
GFS is also showing some showers over the northern portion of the
region on Saturday due to that trough then digging it further south
and west into srn CA dropping a few showers there for Sunday.
Ensembles remain divided with many members entirely dry and a few
showing over an inch in a 24 hour period. Changes in the QPF for the
extended were only about 0.10" or less in either direction. Official
forecast has 0.10-0.30" over the Transverse Range, a tenth or less
for coastal srn CA, and less than a tenth for the Sierra/nrn
border/NV. Most of the rest of CA at this time is not expected to
see more than a stray shower.


QPF graphics are available at www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/qpf.php



AS

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