112
FXUS66 KSEW 031709
AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
909 AM PST Mon Nov 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak weather system lifting north into Southwest Washington
today. The system will continue to drift north tonight before
moving off to the east Tuesday morning. Warm front also moving
in from the south Tuesday night with the trailing cold front
stalling over the area Wednesday. Strongest system in this
series moving inland Thursday into Friday morning. Possible
break Saturday before another front arrives at the end of the
weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Weak front moving into Northwest Oregon/Southwestern Washington
later today. Clouds thickening this morning with rain chances
spreading north during the day. Operational runs not showing
much in the way of rain from about Seattle northward. Ensembles
show a different story with a high percentage of the solutions
wet up to Everett. This will not be a big rain maker but will
still have likely to categorical pops from Seattle south this
afternoon for a tenth of an inch or less. Cloud cover and
increasing rain will not allow for much daytime heating. Highs
only a couple of degrees either side of 50.

Front continuing to lift a little north and east tonight. Rain
chances getting as far north as Skagit county with likely pops
from about Seattle southward. Cloud cover overnight will keep
lows in the 40s with the exception of the north coast where some
clearing will allow temperatures to drop into the mid and upper
30s.

System kicking out to the east Tuesday morning with a very
temporary upper level ridge building in the afternoon. Middle
and high level clouds out ahead of an approaching warm front
will keep skies mostly cloudy Tuesday afternoon. A little warmer
with highs in the mid 50s.

Not much of a break in the action Tuesday night as a warm front
lifts north into Western Washington spreading rain over the
entire area by midnight. Some cooler air trapped over the North
Cascades keeping snow levels around 5000 feet while the
remainder of the mountains see snow levels rise to 6500 to 7500
feet. The warm front will be a quick mover. This combined with
the associated southerly flow aloft will not produce much rain
for the Cascades, a half inch or less. The south slopes of the
Olympics will be the wettest location in this scenario but even
there rainfall amounts forecasted to be under an inch. Lows in
the upper 40s.

Trailing cold front slowly moving into Western Washington
Wednesday. Like we have already seen a few times the last couple
of weeks, the jet is aimed at Northern California and a deep
upper level trough will be digging south behind the front. Both
these variables will slow the eastward movement of the system
down with the front stalling over Western Washington. The parent
low for the front is way up in the Gulf of Alaska but windy
conditions likely over the Northwest Interior and along the
coast as the surface gradients tighten up with the approach of
the front. Wind advisories possible in both locations Wednesday
and maybe as early as Tuesday night. Highs in the mid to upper
50s. Felton


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Models in good agreement with the cold front dying over Western
Washington Wednesday night.

Next system moving quickly into Western Washington Thursday
being pushed by a 100-120 knot jet stream. Model forecasted IVT
values around 500 kg/m/sec putting this in the weak atmospheric
river category. Model 850 mb winds southwesterly 35-45 knots
later Thursday into Thursday night enhancing the precipitation
over the south slopes of the Olympics as well as the Central
Cascades. Snow levels not extremely high, in the 5500 to 7000
foot range. Flood threat increasing for the Skokomish River (
see hydro section for details ). In addition to the rain another
round of wind for the usual locations, Coast and Northwest
Interior.

Frontal system pretty progressive with the front east of the
area by Friday afternoon or Friday evening. Operational models
throwing an upper level ridge up for the weekend as another
frontal system with a digging trough behind it develops well
offshore. Ensembles solutions favoring a dry forecast at least
for Saturday into Sunday afternoon but there are still 20-40% of
the ensemble solutions indicating light precipitation both
days. Will go with a chance of showers at this point for most of
the weekend with the rain out ahead of the next frontal system
arriving Sunday night. Felton

&&

.AVIATION...
Southwest flow aloft will continue today as a frontal
system and associated trough move onshore over Oregon. Clouds will
thicken and lower this morning with areas of MVFR in light rain
developing by afternoon mainly from KPAE southward.

KSEA...VFR ceilings are expected to lower to MVFR in light rain at
times from around 21Z onward. Surface winds northerly 8 to 12 knots
will shift easterly 4 to 7 knots this afternoon. High resolution
ensembles showing a transition to southwesterly winds between 12Z
and 14Z Tuesday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
A surface low moving northeastward off the Oregon coast will
dissipate as it moves onshore over northwest Oregon late today. A
broad and deep area of low pressure will move into the offshore
waters on Tuesday evening. A vigorous frontal system associated with
a sub 980 millibar surface low lifting northward toward Haida Gwaii
is expected to produce headlines for all waters Tuesday night
through Wednesday night. Gales are likely for the coastal waters as
well as the Strait of Juan de Fuca and adjacent waters during this
period. A series of additional fronts will follow into the end of
the week maintaining a very active weather pattern.

Seas of 10 to 12 feet will gradually subside below 10 feet briefly
tonight or early Tuesday before building back to 15 to 20 feet
Wednesday through the rest of the week.    27

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A series of storm systems will move through Western Washington
this week. The system Thursday into Friday will be the wettest
one of the bunch. Flooding is likely on the Skokomish river in
Mason county as early as Thursday night. The remainder of the
rivers will have sharp rises late in the week but only the rivers
flowing off the Central Cascades (Snoqualmie, Skykomish and
Snohomish) are forecast to reach action stage. Most rivers will
crest Friday and then recede over the weekend.

The accumulation of rainfall over the next few days will
increase the landslide risk late this week. Felton

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for Grays
     Harbor Bar.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Coastal
     Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-
     Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10
     Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10
     To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
     Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville
     To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
     Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.

&&

$$