651
FXUS66 KSEW 140945
AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
245 AM PDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Upper level troughing will remain the dominant influence
across western Washington through much of the forecast period. A
few weak fronts will bring chances of showers to the region off
and on over the next week. Onshore flow will continue and
temperatures will remain close to seasonal norms, with highs
generally expected to be in the 60s and 70s and lows in the 40s
and 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...Upper level troughing will
remain the dominant influence across western Washington into next
week as an upper level low remains situated across the Gulf of
Alaska. Increasing onshore flow has allowed for stratus to fill
back into the majority of the area overnight, with satellite
imagery showing stratus already filling in to the Cascade crest
this morning. Stratus will dissipate this afternoon for another
round of late day sunshine. Afternoon high temperatures will be in
the mid 60s to low 70s.

The upper level trough will then dig southward on Sunday, allowing
for 500 mb heights to amplify somewhat over the western Washington.
Sunday will be sunnier than Saturday and highs will climb a
couple degrees, topping out in the 60s to mid 70s.

Chances of showers then increase along the coast on Monday as a
shortwave trough moves into the region and a weak frontal system
approaches at the surface. Overall rainfall amounts look rather
light, with the main impact expected to be an increase of cloud
cover across the region. Afternoon highs will be similar to
Sunday, with temperatures topping out in the 60s to mid 70s.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...Upper level troughing will
continue across the region through much of the long term, with the
upper low over the Gulf of Alaska gradually sinking southward
throughout the week. Chances of shower activity will increase
Tuesday into Wednesday as the system pushes a frontal system
across the area at the surface. Overall precipitation amounts look
to remain rather light across most of the area at this time. The
exception would be the North Cascades, where some spots may see a
quarter to half an inch of precipitation. High temperatures will
be in the 60s to mid 70s, with lows in the 40s and 50s.

By Friday, both deterministic and ensemble guidance show the upper
level low moving inland across the area. This would bring additional
shower chances and cooler temperatures to western Washington
heading into next weekend. 14

&&

.AVIATION...Southwesterly flow aloft continues with an upper level
low just off the coast of British Columbia remains in place. Stratus
remains firmly in place over the mountains, and is beginning to
redevelop along the coast with the cloud deck broken across the
interior. VFR conditions prevail across the terminals this morning,
though the cloud deck is expected to fill in and lower through the
morning. The best chance for MVFR cigs will be along the coast (40-
50%), with lower probabilities across the interior terminals (10-
15%).  Clouds should slowly breakup throughout the course of the
day, leading to VFR conditions area-wide by this afternoon. Keeping
with the pattern, stratus is expected to redevelop again Saturday
night into Sunday morning as well.

Southwesterly winds this morning will slowly veer throughout the day
to west/northwesterly by this afternoon. Winds may be breezy along
the coast and along the Strait of Juan de Fuca.

KSEA...VFR conditions this morning along the edge of the stratus
deck. Expect clouds to redevelop and lower through the morning, but
there is a lower probability of MVFR cigs compared to yesterday,
therefore less confident in MVFR cigs developing this morning.
Clouds should lift and scatter today, with VFR prevailing through
Sunday morning. Southwest winds will gradually veer throughout the
day, becoming northwest this afternoon and northerly tonight into
Sunday morning.

62

&&

.MARINE...Broad high pressure over the northeast Pacific will remain
in place through this weekend, maintaining northwesterly winds
across the coastal waters. Diurnally driven pushes of westerlies
down the Strait of Juan de Fuca will occur each evening with varying
degrees of strength. The strongest of the next few days will occur
this evening, which requires a Small Craft Advisory for the central
and eastern portions of the Strait through early Sunday morning.

Going into next week, a weak front will move through the waters on
Monday, followed by additional weak systems traversing the area
through the middle of next week.

Seas will remain 3 to 5 ft through the weekend, increasing to to
around 5 to 7 ft Monday and remaining the the 4 to 6 ft range
through the rest of the week.

62

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Sunday
     for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East
     Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

&&

$$