593
FXUS66 KSEW 051806
AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
1006 AM PST Thu Nov 5 2026

.SYNOPSIS...A strong frontal system will bring gusty winds and
additional rainfall to western Washington tonight and Friday. A warm
front will warm temperatures as it moves northwards into the area
Saturday. A follow-up cold front Saturday night into Sunday will
bring another round of rain and gusty winds. The weather pattern
remains active moving through next week.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Current satellite imagery shows typical autumn cloudy skies over W
WA this morning. Radar shows that there are still some isolated
showers out there, mainly over the Cascades although there are a
couple of cells over the Olympic Peninsula. Lastly, what is very
likely the leading edge of the system expected tonight is just
starting to show up over the outer coastal waters.

A weak shortwave ridge will hold that system at bay briefly, keeping
conditions dry for much of W WA today, but this feature shifts
eastward fairly quickly...bringing activity to the coastline as
early as this evening but more likely late tonight. Gusty winds will
accompany the incoming front with particular concern for higher wind
speeds along the coast and the North Interior /including the islands
as well as portions of western Whatcom and Skagit counties/...where
speeds could get as high as 20-30 mph with gusts to 50 mph. This has
warranted an inherited Wind Advisory for these areas and the
headline looks to be on track, so no morning update or revision is
expected at this time. As this system mainly impacts the area
through the day Friday, this is when the bulk of the rainfall is
expected with amounts ranging one-half to three-quarters of an inch
on the high end...mainly expected over the higher terrain and along
the coast...to one tenth to one quarter of an inch most remaining
lowland locations. Snow levels will rise throughout the event,
starting the day off at around 5000-6000 ft and lifting to around
9000 in the afternoon. As such, not much of a concern for high
elevation snowfall at this time.

The front pushes out of the area very late Friday night, allowing
for another weak, short-lived shortwave ridge to enter the area.
This feature will not be terribly effective at dispelling clouds nor
lingering post-frontal showers, but does provide a relative lull in
activity for much of Saturday before the next frontal system comes
knocking on the coastline come Saturday night.

Even though the short term will be active, temperatures are expected
to remain mild with daytime highs still a few degrees above seasonal
normals. Saturday will actually see a boost in temperatures with
daytime highs that day getting into the 60s for most lowland
locations. Overnight clouds will keep lows from sinking too much,
mostly ranging from the mid 40s to around 50 for the entire short
term period.

18

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
From Previous Discussion...Active weather continues through next
week as the parade of storms impact the Pac NW. There`s little break
in the action and each storm brings the potential for gusty winds,
additional lowland rain, and high elevation snow. A larger swell
train may reach the coast Saturday night or Sunday with the
potential for 20 ft seas affecting the coast. 33

&&

.AVIATION...
A mix of conditions ranging from VFR to LIFR this morning. Ceilings
should gradually improve by this afternoon, giving way to widespread
VFR as mid and high level clouds associated with a warm front
offshore begin to thicken across the region. Ceilings will fall to
MVFR late tonight and early Friday across portions of the Olympic
Peninsula and North Interior as precipitation associated with the
warm front spreads onshore. Gusty east to southeasterly surface
winds will develop late tonight into Friday across portions of the
coast and North Interior with gusts towards 25-35 kt.

KSEA...Currently VFR at the terminal, but some low clouds still
hanging around, so will opt to keep conditions lowered at MVFR for
now. By 20Z, clouds should have lifted to VFR. SW winds this morning
around 5-6 kt becoming SE this evening. Breezy SW winds developing
Friday afternoon after 21Z.

27/29

&&

.MARINE...
From Previous Discussion...An active period of weather across area
waters is expected into early next week as a series of frontal
systems cross the region. Winds will increase across the coastal
waters, strait entrances, and northern inland waters later tonight
into Friday as a warm front approaches the coastal waters and
stalls. This system will shift onshore and weaken Friday night as an
associated surface low makes landfall near the south end of Haida
Gwaii. A complex and much deeper area of low pressure will lift
northeastward offshore on Saturday night pushing a vigorous frontal
system into the area. If models maintain their current trends, this
system will likely generate gales across all area waters along with
coastal seas easily crossing the 20 foot threshold.

High pressure may briefly rebuild across the waters Sunday night
into early Monday before another front arrives with the renewed
potential for additional headlines.

27

&&

.HYDROLOGY...River flooding is not expected through the next
seven days. However, a series of increasingly wet weather
systems will bring rain (and high mountain snow) to the region,
especially from Friday onward. While current forecasts are not
expected to cause flooding, this will begin to saturate soils
and raise base flows that could bring a concern with subsequent
storms systems into next week.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM PST Friday for Island County-
     Lowlands of Western Skagit and Northwestern Snohomish
     Counties-Lowlands of Western Whatcom County-San Juan
     County.

     Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM PST Friday for Northern
     Washington Coast.

     Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM PST Friday for Grays Harbor
     County Coast.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM PST
     Saturday for Grays Harbor Bar.

     Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 2 PM PST Friday for
     West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

     Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 2 PM PST Friday for
     East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

     Gale Warning from 2 AM to 2 PM PST Friday for Northern Inland
     Waters Including The San Juan Islands.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM PST
     Friday for Admiralty Inlet.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Coastal
     Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-
     Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10
     Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10
     To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
     Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville
     To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
     Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.

     Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM PST Friday for
     Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To
     60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island
     Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
     Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To
     Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
     Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters
     From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.

&&

$$