869
FXUS66 KSEW 231011
AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
211 AM PST Sun Nov 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Lowland rain, mountain snow, and breezy winds will continue to
spread across western Washington this morning as a frontal
system passes through. The trough axis will shift inland on
Monday for additional showers. A wetter system will move into
the region Wednesday and Thursday, bringing in heavier lowland
rain and mountain snow that may cause holiday travel impacts in
the Cascades. Cooler and unsettled conditions will continue into
next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front will continue to slide southeast across western
Washington this morning, bringing in lowland rain and mountain
snow alongside breezy winds. Southerly wind gusts have already
reached 25 to 35 mph along the frontal boundary, and breezy
winds will continue throughout much of the day today with the
strongest gusts near Whidbey Island northward through
Bellingham. The bulk of the precipitation with this system will
shift inland by the late morning, with showers continuing mainly
over the Cascades through the evening. A convergence zone is
also on track to set up over the Puget Sound eastward this
afternoon and evening, shifting between Everett and Federal Way.
The upper trough axis will push inland early Monday morning,
bringing in additional showers through Monday afternoon. Snow
levels starting around 5000-5500 feet early this morning will
lower to around 2000-2500 feet by this evening, resulting in a
few inches of accumulating snowfall through the Cascade mountain
passes. Through Monday, the lowlands will generally see up to a
half inch of rainfall, while the mountains will see roughly 3 to
5 inches of snow above 2500 feet. Temperatures through Monday
will peak within a few degrees of normal for late November, with
highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s across the lowlands.

Monday evening through Tuesday morning will bring a brief break
in active weather as weak high pressure builds into the Pacific
Northwest. Tuesday morning will see the coldest morning
temperatures of the upcoming week, with many lowland areas
especially away from the water dipping to near freezing. Despite
dry conditions, Tuesday morning is likely to be a typical
cloudy and foggy fall morning across western Washington.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A warm front will lift northward across western Washington
Tuesday evening into Wednesday as the next storm system brings
subtropical moisture into the region. Snow levels starting
around 2000-3000 feet will lift above 4500-5500 feet by late
Wednesday with the warm front, then fall below 4000 feet later
in the week. However, there still remains a bit of uncertainty
over the track and orientation of the warm front and how quickly
temperatures rise over the Cascades. East flow through the
Cascade gaps may result in a brief period of a wintry mix or
freezing rain through the mountain passes, but precipitation
over higher elevations will likely predominantly be snow.
Snow accumulations through the higher Cascade passes may reach
a foot or more by the Thanksgiving holiday, resulting in very
difficult travel conditions. Anyone traveling over the Cascades
next week is strongly urged to use caution and stay up to date
on the latest weather conditions and forecasts. Across the
lowlands, rainfall amounts of over an inch in 24 hours may also
cause localized ponding in urban areas and areas with poor
drainage, also posing travel impacts during the Thanksgiving
holiday. However, widespread flooding is not expected through
the week.

Forecast uncertainty increases towards the end of the week as
some ensemble members bring in another wet weather system while
other members build a sharp high pressure ridge offshore. For
now, have maintained chances for additional precipitation in the
forecast with potential for much cooler temperatures by the end
of next weekend.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
A cold front will pass through western WA this morning. Showers
are currently progressing across most terminals, which will
continue through the afternoon, before consolidating to a
convergence zone across Snohomish/King Counties through the
evening. Most terminals are reporting MVFR ceilings with this
frontal system. Couple heavier bands of showers have been
pushing ceilings and visibilities briefly down to IFR/LIFR (this
seems to be mostly prominent along the frontal boundary based
on METARS & location of the front based on the 09Z KCLM METAR).
Once the front moves out, ceilings will improve to low-end VFR
(first along the coast, then for portions of the south/north
interior after 00Z). Caveat will be for the Puget Sound
terminals under the convergence zone, with MVFR continuing
through at least 06Z. Another trough on Monday will produce a
few showers, and bring a mix of VFR/MVFR ceilings in the
morning. Flow aloft through the period will remain out of the
west. Surface winds this morning remain breezy out of the south
8-12 kt gusting to 20 kt (windiest spots are terminals next to
interior and coastal waters). Winds behind the front will turn
W/NW through the morning and afternoon (starting with the coast,
progressing eastward). The magnitude decreases to 4-6 kt in the
afternoon, and 4- 6 kt overnight (gustier in the Strait of Juan
de Fuca however).

KSEA...Showers will continue this morning over the terminal, with a
mix of MVFR/VFR ceilings. The best chance of IFR ceilings will be
from 15Z-20Z as the front passes through and ceilings drop
(probability 20% with low-end MVFR very likely). Shower activity
will consolidate to a convergence zone around 20Z, with
showers/vicinity showers continuing through 06Z Monday. This will
likely keep ceilings MVFR up to that point, before improving to VFR
late Monday night. Breezy S/SW winds 8-12 kt gusts to 20 kt will
continue through 18-20Z, where winds are expected to turn NE 4-6 kt
through 04-06Z due to the convergence zone. They will return to the
south after 06Z 4-6 kt.

HPR

&&

.MARINE...
A cold frontal system continues to pass through the waters this
morning. Few lower ceilings and visibility drops due to the
showers/low clouds are likely for short periods this morning. All
waters remain under small craft advisories for breezy winds
associated with this system (in addition to 9-12 ft seas in the
coastal waters and Grays Harbor Bar). The threat for the interior
waters (Puget Sound, Admiralty Inlet, Northern Inland Waters) for
gusts over 20 kt will end late Sunday morning as south winds
diminish and turn NW behind the front. The central/east Strait of
Juan de Fuca are expected to see frequent gusts over 20 kt much of
Sunday through late Monday morning. The coastal waters will continue
to see gusts over 20 kt through Sunday evening before seeing light
winds. Seas are expected to 6 to 8 ft Monday afternoon.

A larger system approaches the waters late Tuesday through Wednesday
and into Thanksgiving. The Strait of Juan de Fuca and coastal waters
have the highest probabilities of seeing winds/wind gusts exceed 20
kt during this period (but the threat for gales remain low). Seas
will increase back to 8 to 10 ft Wednesday, but drop to 6 to 8 ft
Thursday through the remainder of the week.

HPR

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A weather system will continue to move across western
Washington into Monday for lowland rain and mountain snowfall.
No river flooding is expected during this period, but rivers
are expected to rise. Heavier precipitation is likely beginning
late Tuesday through Thursday of next week. Snow levels will
also rise to 4500 to 5500 feet by Thursday, resulting in
additional rises to area rivers. At this time, the Skokomish
River in Mason County is forecast to approach flood stage
midweek. Although no additional river flooding is forecast at
this time, rivers will continue to be monitored.

JD

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Grays
     Harbor Bar.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for West
     Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 AM PST Monday
     for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM PST Monday for East Entrance
     U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM PST this morning for Admiralty
     Inlet-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan
     Islands-Puget Sound and Hood Canal.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST Monday for Coastal Waters
     From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
     Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-
     Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To
     60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville
     Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
     Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
     Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.

&&

$$