638
FXUS66 KSEW 021749
AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
949 AM PST Mon Nov 2 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions will continue across western Washington through
this afternoon. A weak system will brush the region tonight,
bringing chances of light rain to the area into early Tuesday.
The weather pattern becomes more active mid to late week as a
series of systems brings lowland rain, mountain snow, gusty
winds, and the potential for high surf to western Washington. A
brief break in the unsettled weather is possible Friday night
into Saturday, before the next round of unsettled weather moves
in late in the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Satellite imagery shows another round of low stratus and fog
developing across the interior lowlands early this morning.
Expect low stratus/fog to continue to increase in extent through
the early morning hours before scattering by late morning into
early this afternoon. A few areas may see fog become dense, with
visibilities dropping down to around a quarter mile or less at
times.

Dry conditions will continue across western Washington through
this afternoon as an upper level ridge pushes inland across the
Pacific Northwest. A weak, splitting system offshore will then
brush the region tonight into early Tuesday and will bring
slight chances of showers to the area. The most likely areas to
see any precipitation are the Pacific coast, Olympic Peninsula,
and areas primarily north of Everett. Conditions will dry out
across western Washington again by Tuesday morning, making for
a another mostly dry day for many spots.

Precipitation chances will increase midweek as the first in a
series of weather systems moves across the area on Wednesday.
This first system will bring more widespread rain and high
elevation snow to western Washington, with the bulk of the
moisture focused over the Olympic Peninsula and the North
Cascades. Rainfall amounts for the Pacific Coast are expected
to range between a quarter of an inch to half an inch. Many
spots across the East Puget Sound lowlands will get rain
shadowed, with only a few hundredths of an inch expected for
most areas. Snow levels generally hovering near 5500 ft will
bring a few inches of snow to the higher peaks of the Olympics
and North Cascades. Winds will also increase as this system
approaches the area, with southerly winds expected to pick up
along the coast during the late morning to early afternoon hours
and increasing across the interior during the evening hours.
Winds will be the strongest along the Pacific Coast, with the
most likely scenario at this time highlighting wind gusts
reaching 25-35 mph. Winds across the interior will increase to
10-20 mph, with gusts to 25-30 mph possible. Winds will ease
again overnight into Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Precipitation will gradually taper across the area during the
day on Thursday, however a stronger system will move into the
area Thursday night into Friday. This system will bring another
round of gusty winds, lowland rain, high elevation snow, and the
potential for high surf along the Pacific Coast. The bulk of
the moisture with this system will remain aimed at the Olympic
Peninsula and the North Cascades, with the highest rainfall
amounts likely being along the North Coast, where half an inch
to an inch of rain is expected. Many areas across the interior
lowlands will be rain shadowed again and generally look to
receive a couple hundredths of an inch to a quarter of an inch
of rain. Snow levels between 4500-5000 ft will bring some
additional snowfall to the higher peaks of the Olympics and
North Cascades. Winds will become gusty as the system approaches,
with latest probabilistic guidance indicating a 50% chance of
wind gusts exceeding 40 mph along the Pacific Coast and a 40-50%
chance of wind gusts exceeding 40 mph for areas from Whidbey
Island northward. Increasing potential for high surf along the
coast could also bring localized beach erosion to coastal
communities and create hazardous conditions for beachgoers.

Ensemble clusters continue to hint at a brief break in the
unsettled weather Friday night into early Saturday as a ridge of
high pressure temporarily moves back over the region. Discrepancies
remain in regards to the amplitude of the ridge over the area
at this time, however it does look to aid in directing the bulk
of the moisture of the next incoming system more into British
Columbia. The ridge does look to push inland rather quickly
though, which would open the door for the system impacting
British Columbia to move into the area by Sunday.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
High pressure will slowly drift east with a weak front
remaining offshore through the period. Satellite and cameras this
morning shows a mix of low MVFR or IFR/LIFR in stratus and fog.
Expect conditions to slowly improve later this morning, and by
the early afternoon most places will likely improve to VFR -
with some locations seeing localized MVFR. The coastal
terminals have a 20 percent chance of showers later this
afternoon and evening. Remaining terminals will likely stay dry.
Higher clouds likely remain overnight tonight, and keep low
ceiling/fog potential limited to the south interior. Winds at
the surface will generally flow out of the southeast, with winds
of 5-10 kt in the mountains/coast, and 5 kt or less in the
interior.

KSEA...LIFR in fog this morning. Conditions will slowly improve
to VFR around 19z/20z as high clouds start to filter in. VFR
conditions for the remainder of the TAF period. Light southeast
winds at 5 kt or less, with a switch to NE winds this evening,
but remaining generally light.

HPR/Mazurkiewicz

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will slowly drift eastward today with a front
remaining offshore in the coastal waters. This will result in some
breezy winds in the far outer coastal waters up to 20 kt. The
pattern will become active again from Wednesday through the weekend
as an atmospheric river pattern begins to take shape, The first
system on Wednesday will primarily bring wind impacts to the coastal
waters, with a 60-80% chance of winds gusts over 20 kt. The next
system on Friday will be stronger, with gusty winds covering the
coastal and the interior waters as southerly winds increase with the
system passing through. There is a 25-40% chance of gale gusts in
the coastal waters and the east Strait of Juan de Fuca. 2 additional
systems may also impact the waters through the weekend and early
next week, with again chances for wind gusts over 20 kt.

A small craft advisory continues for seas of 8 to 11 ft in the
coastal waters/west Strait of Juan de Fuca. Seas will decrease to 6-
8 ft on Tuesday before building back to 10 ft to 13 ft Thursday, and
further increase to 15 to 20 ft on Friday before decreasing back to
11 to 15 ft next weekend.

HPR

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM PST Tuesday for Coastal Waters
     From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
     Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-
     Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To
     60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville
     Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
     Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
     Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-West Entrance U.S.
     Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

&&

$$