622
FXUS66 KSEW 170417
AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
817 PM PST Sun Nov 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers will continue across the region through Tuesday as a
couple of troughs pass through the region. Drier weather is
expected late Tuesday into Wednesday as a ridge briefly builds
over the region, giving a small chance for the first peaks of
sunshine in a short while. Rain chances will increase again
going towards the end of the week, with near normal temperatures
favored.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The latest forecast remains on track this evening with no
updates. It remains quite moist out there with an inversion
trapping low level moisture across the region (lower
visibilities with showers passing through ahead of a cold
front/trough to the west). Quite a bit of mist/low ceilings are
still being observed in Puget Sound, and will likely continue
into tonight until cooler air begins to move in aloft into
Monday. The showers will linger into Monday and Tuesday, with
light accumulations expected. Snow levels will gradually lower
from around 6,000 ft Monday night down to 3,000 ft Tuesday
behind the trough as northwest flow mixes down towards the
surface. Few snow showers will be possible at the passes, but
again no accumulations are expected.

The trough will begin to split late Tuesday, with the upper
level low deepening to the south, and a cutoff trough passing
through. A ridge is favored to build in behind the trough, and
depending on the timing on how quickly the ridge sits over the
region, there could be a few breaks of clouds with some sun
seeping through late Tuesday (50-60% cloud coverage). The
temperatures will also drop a few degrees from Monday into
Tuesday (especially in the Cascades with more). For the
interior: highs will dip into the upper 40s/low 50s Tuesday,
with lows in the upper 30s/low 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The ridge pattern from Tuesday is expected to pass quickly
overhead Wednesday. This will nullify any precipitation chances
through late Wednesday evening. Ensembles place a trough/frontal
system moving through the region late Wednesday night through
early Friday. This system appears more showery in nature as
forecasted QPF remains low with this system. Some breezy east
gap winds in the Cascades are possible with this system. A
stronger system is possible going into next weekend from Friday
through Sunday with additional precipitation. THere are some
disagreements with the ensembles with this pattern though
(especially as a few of them favor a more zonal pattern).
Temperatures will cool off a few degrees into next weekend, but
remain generally steady from the short-term section.

HPR

&&

.AVIATION...
Southwesterly flow aloft becoming southerly overnight as
weakening front moves into the area. Front dissipating over the
interior Monday morning.

Mix of LIFR to MVFR ceilings through Monday morning. Visibility
1-3sm in light rain and fog at times. Small improvement Monday
afternoon.

KSEA...IFR to LIFR ceilings through Monday morning. Visibility
bouncing around between 1 and 5 sm. Small improvement Monday
afternoon. Light southerly winds.

Felton

&&

.MARINE...
A weakening front will dissipate over the inland waters
Monday morning. Surface high pressure building in behind the
front later Monday morning. Surface high remaining over the waters
through Tuesday night. A frontal system will reach the waters
Wednesday night into Thursday.

Small craft advisory over the outer coastal waters for 10 foot
seas through Monday afternoon and over the inner coastal waters
through tonight. Small craft advisory winds likely Wednesday
night or Thursday over the coastal waters with the next system.

Felton

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrological rainfall is expected through late week as
activity is expected to remain showery in nature. There`s lower
confidence in systems next weekend that may produce hydrologic
concerns.

HPR

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM PST Monday for Coastal Waters
     From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal
     Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-
     Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater
     Out 10 Nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM PST Monday for Coastal Waters
     From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
     Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-
     Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10
     To 60 Nm.

&&

$$