996
FXUS66 KSEW 061000
AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
300 AM PDT Mon Oct 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will maintain a warming and drying trend
across western Washington to start off the week. Troughing will
develop over the region by Wednesday, introducing cloudy skies and
chances for light shower activity that will continue through the
remainder of the week. Another trough will move over the region
over the weekend, bringing cooler temperatures, chances for
widespread precipitation, and light snow over higher elevations of
the Cascades.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...High pressure will
continue to build into the region today, bringing warmer
conditions and another day of sunshine across western Washington.
Offshore flow will help to mitigate fog development early this
morning, with temperatures across the lowlands peaking in the
upper 60s and lower 70s later today. Clear skies later tonight
will allow temperatures to dip into the 40s for most areas, and
continued offshore flow will help limit the potential for morning
fog to develop.

The upper ridge axis will shift east of the Cascades by Tuesday as
a trough deepens over the Gulf of Alaska. As southwest flow
develops aloft, easterly winds will increase through the Cascade
gaps early Tuesday morning. Temperatures Tuesday will peak a few
degrees higher than today, with most areas south and east of the
Puget Sound reaching the mid 70s.

A frontal system will split as it reaches the coast early
Wednesday, with a cutoff low projected to develop along the
Pacific Coast by the middle of the week. This introduces a return
to onshore flow alongside chances for light rain showers on
Wednesday, mainly confined to the northern coast. However, rainfall
amounts will likely not exceed a trace. As the low deepens
offshore, wrap around moisture may make its way northward later on
Wednesday to generate additional showers over the Cascades.
Temperatures will cool considerably on Wednesday, with highs
barely making it into the 60s across the lowlands.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...Forecast models show good
agreement over a deepening low pressure system traversing
southward along the Pacific Coast through the rest of the week,
maintaining chances for light shower activity from moisture
advected northward. Temperatures will remain slightly below normal
as troughing persists over the region, with highs in the low 60s
Thursday and Friday. The best chance for more widespread rainfall
will enter the region over the weekend as another trough swings
across the area. Temperatures will peak in the mid to upper 50s
across western Washington, with snow levels predicted to fall
as low as 4000-4500 feet. While liquid amounts are on track to be
generally light, this may produce the first dusting of snow over
the Cascades for the season, with a light dusting possible through
Snoqualmie Pass over the weekend.

15

&&

.AVIATION...VFR across all terminals early this morning. Fog/low
stratus is still a possibility this morning at some locations if the
winds remain calm/light; however confidence is low as easterly winds
from the Cascades may keep the lower levels on the drier side.
Otherwise, VFR conditions expected to persist for the majority of
the TAF period, although guidance suggests fog/low stratus is
possible near the end of the TAF period, after 11z Tuesday.
Light/calm to northerly winds at 4-6 kt increasing this afternoon to
5-10 kt.

KSEA...VFR at the terminal early this morning and expected to
persist for the majority of the TAF period with high clouds at
times. Easterly surface flow should keep the lower levels dry enough
to prevent fog at the terminal. Guidance is hinting that fog/low
stratus may return after 13z Tuesday, with a 25% chance of IFR and
20% chance of LIFR. Northeasterly winds this morning at 6-8 kt will
become northwesterly in the afternoon at 7-10 kt. Winds will shift
again northeasterly in the evening after 3z to 5-8 kt.

29

&&

.MARINE...Broad high pressure will persist over the coastal waters
today and weaken Tuesday morning. In addition, a thermal trough
along the coast will bring periods of offshore flow at times.
Surface flow will then shift onshore as a frontal system moves over
area waters Tuesday evening into Wednesday. This will lead to
increased winds and wave heights for the coastal waters. Latest
guidance suggests small craft winds are possible for the coastal
waters. The latest probabilities suggest a 45-80% chance of
sustained winds exceeding 21 kt, while there`s a 40-90% chance of
gusts exceeding 21 kt. The highest probabilities are for the outer
coastal waters. Wave heights with this system will increase to 8-11
ft. Seas will subside Wednesday afternoon to 5-7 ft and will
continue decreasing into Friday to 3-5 ft. Additional systems may
move over the waters late in the week. However, the latest guidance
suggests marine impacts will be minimal at this time.

29

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Offshore flow will continue to develop across
western Washington today as high pressure builds into the region.
The high pressure ridge will shift eastward overnight tonight
into Tuesday, generating occasionally breezy easterly winds
through the Cascade gaps tonight into Tuesday morning. The
highest potential for wind gusts reaching 25 to 30 mph is through
Snoqualmie Pass early Tuesday morning. Relative humidities are
also expected to drop into the 20% to 30% range later this
afternoon with limited recovery overnight into Tuesday morning.
Given the recent rains, fuel conditions are not approaching
critical thresholds, but elevated fire concerns will be present
today into Tuesday due to low RH values and breezy winds for Zone
659 (Central and Southern WA Cascades). Relative humidities will
improve by Wednesday as onshore flow resumes, and will continue to
improve into next weekend as chances for precipitation increase.

15

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...None.
&&

$$