634
FXUS63 KSGF 300732
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
232 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures will occur across the area again
  today, and across the eastern portions of the area on
  Thursday. Highs will warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s this
  afternoon, approaching some records.

- Rounds of showers and thunderstorms (70 to 95% chances) are
  expected tonight into Friday. There will be the potential for
  some locally heavy rainfall with this system.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 225 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Synoptic analysis shows a potent upper level closed low over the
desert southwest, with the remnants of Hurricane Polo merging in
with the system. Towards the north, more zonal flow is
dominating the northern CONUS as an upper low resides further
north over northern Alberta/Saskatchewan/Manitoba Canada. As a
result, subtle shortwave troughs have been, and will continue to
move between these two systems, bringing upper level energy and
fuel for periodic light showers today before the next bout of
moderate/heavy rainfall affects the area beginning later
tonight (more on this later). Current radar as of 2AM shows
these showers over eastern KS and northern/central MO, with
observations showing 1-hour rates of a few hundredths of an inch
(with isolated areas up to a few tenths of an inch).

Throughout today, the aforementioned closed low over the desert
southwest will begin to lift northeast towards the region,
bringing gusty winds up to 20-25mph along/west of Highway 65 as
the pressure gradient tightens. The warm airmass over the area
will once again allow high temperatures to climb into the upper
80s to low 90s this afternoon. We`ll have to keep an eye on
potential record- breaking temperatures, however latest
guidances suggests we`ll fall short by a few degrees.

Heading into tonight, bands of showers/storms will make their
way into the western CWA generally after midnight (but closer to
sunrise). These will be accompanied by some marginal bulk shear
(20-30kts) and MUCAPE <500 J/kg, leading to some isolated non-
severe thunderstorms possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 225 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

High-Res guidance shows rain lingering over areas along/west of
Highway 65 on Thursday morning/afternoon as the upper low opens
up into a wave and pushes further east towards the area. By
Thursday evening, however, an associated surface cold front will
begin to push southeast through the area, pushing the
showers/thunderstorms further east through the rest of the
forecast area Thursday night into Friday morning/early afternoon.
Mean PWATs between 1.5-1.8" (higher west of Hwy 65) will lead
to pretty sufficient rainfall. For reference, sounding
climatology depicts this to be pretty high for this time of year
(and a record if it comes to fruition), as the 90th percentile
is 1.40", with a daily max of 1.49". Despite this, with the
current D2 (Severe) and D3 (Extreme) drought coupled with
guidance pulling back on rainfall amounts, decided not to move
forward with any Flood headlines with this forecast package.
Current NBM 48-hour QPF probabilities are the following:

>1.0": 65-95% west of Highway 65; 35-65% east of Hwy 65
>2.0": 40-80% west of Highway 65; 15-25% east of Hwy 65
>3.0": 15-45% west of Highway 65; <10% east of Hwy 65

Summarizing that up, the majority of the rain is expected to
fall west of Highway 65, especially further west of the I-49
corridor. HREF LPMM shows a swath of heavy rainfall between
1.5-2.5" with localized pockets up to 5+" extending from
Wichita/southeast of Wichita northeast through Kansas
City/northeast MO. If this were to occur, then the heaviest axis
would fall just outside our forecast area. This further impacted
the decision to hold off on any flood products with this
package. We`ll continue to monitor the need for a Flood Watch.
If guidance suggest the heavy rainfall axis falling further into
our CWA, then a Watch may be warranted for areas generally
along/west of I-49. Regardless, we`ll be seeing some much needed
rainfall, which will hopefully help alleviate at least some of
the drought conditions.

Temperatures on Thursday will be vastly different across the
CWA, with a 10-15 degree spread from west to east. With
rainfall lingering over areas west of Highway 65 much of the
day, temperatures are expected to remain in the 70s. East of
Highway 65 will climb into the low to upper 80s (increasing
closer to south-central MO), as rainfall will hold off until
later in the evening.

A cooler airmass will push into the region behind the cold
front, bringing more widespread seasonable temperatures in the
70s through the weekend and into the beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1048 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Confidence is high that VFR conditions will prevail through the
TAF period with mid level clouds at times. There is a low chance
for some light rain at JLN towards the end of the period otherwise
dry conditions are expected. Winds will start out south to
southeasterly with a gradual turn to due south Wednesday morning
and afternoon. Wind gusts on Wednesday will likely reach 20kts,
especially at JLN and SGF. Low level wind shear is possible at
the sites early Wednesday morning and again Wednesday night
however speeds are too low to include at this time.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Record High Temperatures:

September 30:
KSGF: 91/1979
KJLN: 93/1952
KVIH: 93/2023
KUNO: 92/1952

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Melto
LONG TERM...Melto
AVIATION...Burchfield
CLIMATE...Wise