329
FXUS63 KSGF 302313
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
613 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight into
  Friday. There will be the potential for some locally heavy
  rainfall with this system, but widespread flooding is not
  expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Currently, the well advertised system is in the form of a deeply
closed 500mb low over the AZ/NM border and a ~1000 mb surface
low over the Oklahoma panhandle.

As the system moves east, the low will become stacked over
western KS, then weaken to an open wave well before it gets
over our area. Precip chances will increase gradually from west
to east late this evening through Thursday, focusing mainly W
of Hwy 65 through Thursday morning. Precip will then NW to SE on
Friday, with most areas being dry by Friday night.

Rainfall amounts remain highly uncertain, but models continue to
show the greatest amounts along and west of I-49. The forecast
(most likely) QPF is 0.5-1.0" along/south of I-44 and 1-2" north
of I-44 with potential for 2-3 inches over parts of SE KS and
far W MO. Again, higher than normal uncertainty exists for this
time range, so changes are possible. These values themselves
will not be enough for flooding, but convective elements could
lead to locally higher amounts and localized flooding.
Precipitable Water values are forecast to be 1.5-2.0 inches,
which is 150-200% of normal values, supporting the threat for
these higher amounts with convective elements.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

The weekend into early next week is quiet with no precip in the
forecast, highs in the 70s, and lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 609 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Rain chances remain low and conditions should remain VFR
through the first 6 hours of the TAF period. An area of showers
and thunderstorms will move towards the area after 09z and have
gone with prob30 groups. The highest chances for a thunderstorm
Thursday morning are at JLN. Rain chances and MVFR ceilings
will spread east to SGF and BBG during the morning and afternoon
hours. There remains some uncertainty on the exact timing of
the heaviest rainfall therefore updates are likely. Winds will
remain out of the south with a gradual shift to the southwest
Thursday afternoon. Low level wind shear is likely at JLN and
SGF Thursday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Burchfield