431
FXUS63 KSGF 130544
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1244 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered light showers across western Missouri and extreme
  southeast Kansas at times through today. Cloud cover and rain
  will keep highs in the 70s in some areas.

- Starting Tuesday, above average high temperatures in the upper
  70s to mid 80s and dry weather forecasted through the end of
  the work week.

- 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms over the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Today:

An upper trough and surface cold front encroaching on the
northwestern CWA have resulted in isolated to scattered light
showers over the western CWA and isolated showers over central
MO, while southeastern areas are dry under the upper ridge.
This activity will drift slight east with time today, staying
mainly along and NW of I-44. QPF is mainly less than 0.10". For
what it`s worth, NBM probabilities of QPF >= 0.25" is less than
20%. There may be some locations south of I-44 that see light
rain or sprinkles, but conditions should be mostly dry.
Instability is forecast to be minimal, resulting in NBM Thunder
Probabilities of less than 10% and no thunder in the forecast.

Look for highs to vary from the mid 70s NW to the low 80s SE.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies tonight will keep lows a little
warmer in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

The upper ridge builds back into the area for much of this
forecast period, resulting in the mainly focus being late week
into the weekend when a system could bring convection and
potentially severe storms to the area.

Look for mainly dry weather during this stretch with above
normal highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

Model systems are in overall good agreement in bringing a more
active pattern late this week and weekend, but solutions differ
on the strength and timing of mid level energy. Ensemble severe
weather tools (CSU, CIPS, GEFS AI, and ENS AI, for example) are
showing some severe weather potential (generally less than 15%),
but confidence in this potential is low given the dependency on
exact details that will likely not become clear for a few more
days at least. This low potential also matches the SPC outlook,
which is too low to include a 15% probability but was mentioned
in their discussion. As for rainfall amounts, NBM 72 hour
(ending 12Z Monday) interquartile values generally range from a
few hundredths of an inch to 0.75-1.25 inches.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Primarily looking at VFR conditions through the TAF period. KJLN
will see the greatest coverage of showers (30-50%) at this
through the day today, but even with showers conditions will
mainly be VFR and occasionally MVFR.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Titus