880
FXUS63 KSGF 062242
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
542 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain will continue through tonight with brief dry periods.
  More widespread rain chances will occur Sunday into Monday
  (90% chance).

- A Flood Watch has been issued for 1 PM Sunday to 1 PM Monday
  for areas along and west of Hwy 63. 1-3 inch per hour downpours
  possible leading to a flash flooding risk. Rainfall amounts
  of 1-3 inches with localized amounts up to 5 inches possible.

- Above normal temperatures and humidity next week will lead to
  Heat Index values in the mid-90s to lower 100s. First heat of
  the season and warm nighttime temperatures may heighten heat-
  related impacts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 127 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

A surface low is churning to our west over OK today and that`s
where the heaviest rain has fallen. However, southern MO has
seen some rain today, but rainfall accumulations have stayed
lower (~ 1 inch) and no flooding has occurred quite yet.
Though, with rain that has moved through, visibilities have
dropped to 1 to 2 miles within the heavier rain bands. Heaviest
bands and lightning has stayed closer to the surface low down to
our southwest. There will be brief periods of dry weather
especially later this evening as the chance for rain drops to
20-40%. Then, a small low-level jet gets going tonight after
midnight over far SW MO and SE KS and starts to increase our
rain chances again in that area overnight (50-60%). There may be
minor flooding that occurs today especially in urban areas or
low- lying flood prone areas.

The remainder of today will be cloudy with highs reaching the
upper 70s. Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s with light
southerly winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 127 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

More rain is on the way on Sunday as the low pressure system
slowly pushes northeast through the day. Tomorrow features our
highest chance for flooding as the trough ejects an abundance of
mid-level vorticity into our area. This will enhance the lift
for even higher rain rates over our area tomorrow. We will
still message the threat for 1-3 in/hr rates with this activity
which is the reason for the issuance of the Flood Watch. There
were already 2-3 in/hr rates in the activity today over OK, and
we will see similar convective processes tomorrow. This watch
was issued due to the high rain rates expected as opposed to
overall rainfall totals. The Flood Watch as been issued mostly
for counties along and west of Highway 63 from 1 PM Sunday
through 1 PM Monday. Even though rain will start earlier than
this timeframe, this is when the risk for flash flooding is at
its peak. Not all the counties in the watch will see flash
flooding, and there could be areas outside of the watch that do
end up seeing localized flash flooding. As far as rainfall
totals go, we are expecting 1-3 inches of rain with localized
amounts up to 5 inches.

SPC has introduced a small area of a Marginal Risk (1/5) over
SE KS and SW MO mainly for a tornado risk. This risk spawns from
the decent amount of shear and SRH (200-300 m2/s2) over the
area due to the surface low. This tornado risk is a low and very
conditional threat. Shear and instability have to line up
perfectly to get this risk to come to fruition. But, the low-end
risk is there tomorrow and we will have to monitor that threat.

Another shortwave moves through the area to start the week and
brings rain chances for Monday and Tuesday. By mid-week, high
pressure sets in once again. Above normal temperatures and
humidity next week will lead to Heat Index values in the mid-90s
to lower 100s. First heat of the season and warm nighttime
temperatures may heighten heat-related impacts. Take caution if
you are sensitive to heat.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 532 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Light showers continue to move through southwest Missouri and
southeast Kansas and diminish at the start of the TAF period.
Additional scattered showers will move in from Oklahoma and
Arkansas overnight, though coverage is expected to be more hit
or miss, so any mention was relegated to a PROB30 group for now.
Stronger showers and thunderstorms will be possible after 18Z
Sunday, capable of producing IFR or lower ceilings and
visibilities.

Non-thunderstorm winds will persist out of the south-southeast
through the TAF period, though any thunderstorm outflows may
locally modify these winds briefly, which is not captured in the
current TAFs.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon for
     KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon for
     MOZ055-066>069-077>081-088>096-101>105.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Soria
LONG TERM...Soria
AVIATION...Didio