865
FXUS63 KSGF 211829
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
129 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will range from the upper 80s northeast of
  Springfield to the 90s elsewhere this weekend into next week.
  Heat indicies in the upper 90s to around 100 southwest of
  Springfield.

- Marginal risk for severe storms west of Springfield Saturday
  morning. 20-50% chance of showers and storms Saturday morning
  and again Sunday night generally along and west of Highway 65.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper
air analysis still shows the region in a northwest flow aloft
with the upper level high west of the area across the Rockies.
A surface front remains across the Red River Valley with
variable winds across the area. 12z KSGF sounding continues to
show some drier air aloft with a PW value around 1.16in. Other
than some high cirrus clouds, skies were mostly sunny early this
afternoon. Temps in central Missouri have warmed into the
middle 80s with upper 80s to lower 90s.

Shower and Storms Saturday Morning: An upper level disturbance
will slide southeast through the Dakotas and into Nebraska this
evening. At the same time, a low level jet will increase from
Kansas into southern Nebraska allowing for a cluster of showers
and thunderstorms to form. A 2000j/kg MU CAPE corridor looks to
set up from central and eastern Kansas into northeast Oklahoma
and far southwest Missouri. Mean wind vectors all point to this
cluster of storms moving southeast through the instability
corridor and towards the western portions of the area after 3am,
most likely closer to sunrise Saturday. 30kts of 0-6km shear may
allow for enough storm organization for a marginal risk of a
severe storm with damaging winds however given the time of day
we are not expecting very many, if any severe storms. This
cluster of storms looks to then progress south/southeast through
southwest Missouri during to mid to late morning hours, exiting
the area by the afternoon. We have used the latest short term
model guidance to increase precip chances closer to 40 percent
for Saturday morning for locations west of Highway 65. If trends
continue, we will likely have to increase these chances even
further. The drier air across the eastern ozarks will likely be
a factor as to how far east storms make it. The increased
precip chances and morning clouds will likely keep temps down
and have trended towards high temps perhaps reaching the low 90s
by late afternoon. Cloud cover will be critical to the
determination of final high temps Saturday afternoon. Precip
chances then drop below 10 percent for Saturday afternoon and
Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Additional Precip Chances Sunday Night: Sunday looks mainly dry
with highs in the 80s northeast of Springfield to the 90s
elsewhere. Another shortwave looks to slide southeast through
the flow into the area late Sunday night. Another cluster of
showers and storms looks to form somewhere in eastern Kansas and
move southeast towards the area. Plenty of uncertainty remains
as to this cluster of storms and expect additional updates.
Precip chances beyond Sunday night are currently less than 20
percent however given this current pattern, additional time
periods may see chances increase.

Continued Hot Temperatures: Outside of any precip chances, mean
850mb temps in the lower 20s Celsius along with increasing
drought (D0 and D1 are expanding per latest Drought Monitor)
should allow for highs to reach the 90s across most of the area
this weekend into early next week. Locations west of Springfield
will be the hottest with highs in the upper 90s to around 100.
The latest CPC outlook for late August into early September
favors above normal temperatures continuing.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period
with passing high clouds this afternoon. A system will move down
towards the area Saturday morning and will increase cloudcover
and provide a 30 percent chance of showers and storms. The
highest chances are at JLN. Have included prob30 groups for now
but if confidence increases will have to include prevailing
groups. Winds will start out southerly with a gradual turn to
the north tonight and Saturday however speeds will be less than
10kts.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Burchfield