935
FXUS63 KSGF 112023
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
223 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- S-SW wind gusts of 30-40 mph this afternoon, with the
  strongest winds along and west of Highway 65.

- Widespread elevated to locally significant fire weather
  concerns this afternoon, especially in areas with very dry
  fuels. Strong winds and humidity values of 25-30%.

- A warm-up begins today with 60s and 70s expected for Wednesday
  into Saturday (10 to 20 degrees above average). Record high
  temperatures are in jeopardy Friday and Saturday.

- Though details are uncertain, 30-40% chances for rain are in
  the forecast for Sunday into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 200 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper
air analysis continues to show a northwest flow pattern across
the central US. Working our way down to 850mb reveals that
significant warm air advection processes were occuring. While
the 12z KSGF sounding measured a 850mb temp of only 4C, a strong
westerly low level jet has since advected temps closer to
12-14C. Surface high pressure was located along the northern
Gulf Coast and while winds were southerly, a very dry airmass
remained over the area. Soundings southwest of the area all
showed dews in the 20s this morning. High clouds this morning
have exited the area with stronger mixing now occuring. Early
afternoon humidity values ranged from 25-30% (with the help of
temps overachieving a tad into the lower 60s) with wind gusts
around 30-40 mph at times. This has created solid elevated fire
conditions with brief periods of significant fire conditions.

This Afternoon through Tonight: While conditions continue to
flirt with (or very briefly hit) Red Flag Warning criteria,
winds should begin to slowly decrease over the next few hours
as the stronger winds aloft shift east of the area. A
weak/subtle shortwave and more evident 850mb trough will swing
through the area tonight however dry air aloft will keep the
area precip and likely cloud free. While winds decrease
overnight, there should be enough of a west/southwest wind
component (and brief northwest wind) to keep temps several
degrees warmer than this morning. Most locations should drop
into the middle/upper 30s with the valleys and wind protected
areas in the lower 30s.

Wednesday: Weak surface high pressure will slide through the
area which should keep skies clear and winds much lighter than
today. 850mb temps look to drop back into the 6-10C range and
when compared with conditional climatology, this would
correlate to median high temps in the upper 60s. There is some
potential to reach 70 degrees closer to the Missouri/Arkansas
border or far southwest Missouri to the south of Joplin.
Dewpoints look to climb about 10 degrees from today which will
keep the fire danger limited.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Thursday: Increasing mid level heights and thicknesses will
continue with forecast 850mb temps in the 10-12C range. This
should correlate to highs reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s
which is shown by the latest NBM data. Areas west of Highway 65
will most likely reach the lower 70s. An inspection of ensemble
forecast soundings does show mid/high cloud potential during at
least the first half of the day which could impact temps. If
these clouds decrease/move out faster, then more widespread
temps in the 70s would occur.

Friday and Saturday: A very warm, and near record breaking
couple of days seem to be coming together as the mid level
ridge increases and expands over the central US. Friday`s mean
850mb temps of 12-15C would support highs well into the 70s.
Latest ensemble data then shows the potential for 850mb temps to
reach near the 90th percentile on Saturday (15-18C). As long as
cloud cover is not broken or overcast, temps could reach the
upper 70s which are near record territory (see climate section
below). A steady southwest wind will assist with these warm
temps.

Sunday and Monday: Ensemble variance continues to be quite
high with respect to the overall synoptic pattern late in the
weekend and into early next week. The main culprit is an upper
low off of the California coast on Saturday. Ensemble cluster
analysis shows differing scenarios with respect to the timing
and location of this low as it ejects out into the rockies. It
should eventually eject out into the plains however given the
uncertainties the NBM continues with its precip chances in the
30-40% range for our area. We suspect that there will continue
to be changes/updates during this timeframe. Worth noting is
both the CPC and the CIPS extended analogs both favor above
average temps and above average precip potential for early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1139 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Confidence is high that VFR conditions will prevail through the
TAF period with passing high clouds this afternoon then
clear skies for the remainder. Winds will be gusty out of the
south to southwest this afternoon with frequent gusts around
30kts. Winds will then decrease this evening, becoming less than
10kts overnight. Low level wind shear is likely through mid
afternoon at all three locations then again at BBG overnight.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 200 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Record High Temperatures:

November 14:
KSGF: 78/1973
KJLN: 79/1964
KVIH: 75/1960
KUNO: 79/1999

November 15:
KSGF: 78/1964
KJLN: 77/1950
KVIH: 79/1955


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Burchfield
CLIMATE...Burchfield