435
FXUS63 KSGF 092245
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
445 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty southwest winds at 20 to 30 mph, becoming west to
  northwest into Wednesday morning at 25 to 35 mph.

- Near to above average temperatures through Friday. The warmest
  temperatures will be focused across the south and west with
  highs in the 50s.

- Cooler temperatures settle into the are Friday night through
  Sunday, with the coldest temperatures on Sunday. Minimum wind
  chills on Sunday morning dip into the single digits to teens.

- Dry through most of the period with precipitation chances less
  than 10%.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 130 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

Today-Tonight:
A longwave trough with northwest flow persist over the region.
At the surface, a low pressure is rapidly intensifying across
the Northern Plains into the the Northern Mississippi Valley. As
this system builds into the Great Lakes region, a strong
pressure gradient builds over the area supporting gusty winds
ahead of an associated frontal passage. This has supported
gusty southwest winds this afternoon around 20 to 30 mph,
advecting in a much warmer airmass. Highs this afternoon have
reached into the middle to upper 50s.

By this evening into tonight, some clouds begin to build into
the area ahead of an approaching frontal passage. This cold
front is expected to remain dry across the area, with PoPs <
10%. Meanwhile, strong wind gusts persist behind the frontal
passage, as winds turns out of the west to northwest. The latest
guidance suggests wind gusts approach 25 to 35 mph, with
occasional gusts near 40 mph, as further supported by forecast
soundings at the top of the mixed layer. NBM Probabilities
depicts the following for wind gusts overnight into Wednesday
morning:

Prob > 30 mph: 60-90%
Prob > 35 mph: 30-60%
Prob > 40 mph: 10-30%

HREF guidance depicts the timing of the strongest wind gusts
on Wednesday morning, focused along and east of Highway 65.

Wednesday:
Clouds gradually clear through Wednesday morning, with gusty
winds tapering off through the afternoon. Highs on Wednesday
reach into the middle 40s (north) to near 50 (south). Additional
cloud cover overspreads the area Wednesday night as a secondary
wave translates through the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

Thursday:
By Thursday, a surface warm front lifts back through the area
supporting a return of mild temperatures and southerly winds.
The ridge and increasing mid-level heights nudge into the area,
resulting in a temperature spread varying from middle to upper
50s (west) to upper 40s (east).

Friday-Sunday:
As we progress into Friday, uncertainty returns to the
temperature forecast as ensemble guidance continues to struggle
capturing the timing and strength of impending CAA with the next
dip in the jet stream. This can be captured by run to run and
model to model discrepancies. NBM interquartile temperature
spreads remain 10 to 15 degrees this weekend.

The latest trends and forecast support the mild temperatures
lingering through at least Friday across southern MO. In this
area, forecast highs are progged to reach into the lower to
middle 50s. The cooler temperatures appear to remain contained
further north through Friday. However, ensembles gradually
filter in the cooler airmass on Saturday with highs in the upper
30s to 40s.

Surface high pressure sinks south into the area on Sunday, with
a secondary surge of colder air. Overnight lows fall into the
teens to near 20 into Sunday morning with breezy northerly
winds. This will support wind chills dipping into the single
digits to teens. Highs Sunday are expected to be below normal
despite the larger interquartile spreads, with most guidance
highlighting upper 20s to 30s.

Next Week:
The extent and longevity of the below normal temperatures
appears to remain confined to this weekend, as NBM depicts a
warming trend into early next week. This would suggest highs
returning to near normal to a few degrees below normal for mid-
December.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 438 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

VFR conditions through the TAF period with broken to overcast
mid and high clouds. Low-level wind shear has been added to the
TAFs as well with the presence of a strong NW low-level jet.
Southwest winds will gust to 25 kt and will gradually turn to
the northwest overnight with the passage of a dry cold front.
These gusty winds will continue through the day Wednesday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Perez
LONG TERM...Perez
AVIATION...Didio