738
FXUS63 KSGF 171932
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
232 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Summer-like temperatures with highs in the 80s and lows in the
  60s to around 70 Sunday and Monday. Occasional wind gusts of
  30 to 40 mph.

- Slight risk for severe thunderstorms Monday. Uncertainty in
  timing and evolution of severe threats exists. 40-70 percent
  chance (highest chances along and north of Highway 54) of
  showers and storms Monday morning into early afternoon. Some
  severe storms possible with damaging winds the most likely
  hazard.

- Slight risk for severe thunderstorms Tuesday. A line of
  thunderstorms expected to move through early morning/sunrise
  Tuesday. Some severe storms possible with damaging winds the
  most likely hazard.

- Additional rainfall chances (30-50%) mid to late week along
  with cooler temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper
air analysis continues to show southwest flow aloft with a
strong trough moving into the Rockies. A 40kt jet at 850mb
exists from the Gulf all the way through eastern Kansas. Surface
low pressure continues to strengthen across southwest Kansas
with a front stretching northeast into Nebraska. Boundary layer
dews remain in the middle to upper 60s. The pressure gradient
was allowing for wind gust of 30-40mph however a rather
expansive cumulus field was keeping winds from increasing even
further. Even with cloud cover, temps were in the lower 80s
early this afternoon. Recent 18z sounding from KSGF measured a
very strong capping inversion/elevated mixed layer (EML). This
EML was centered around 750mb with a 700mb temp of 11C.

Afternoon - Evening: While some CAMS/High res guidance tries to
develop late afternoon pop up storms over the area, the latest
sounding builds confidence that the chance is low (less than 20
percent). While a rogue shower may develop, most locations
should remain warm, dry and breezy through this evening.

Thunderstorm Potential Overnight through Monday Afternoon: Main
attention turns to Kansas and Nebraska as the low level jet will
strengthen overnight and interact with the forcing of the upper
level trough and the surface front. Latest 12z HREF and REFS
data strongly supports a cluster of storms forming overnight
across northern Kansas. These storms will form in strongly
unstable and highly sheared environment. Most guidance has this
cluster of storms moving due east overnight, following the
forward propagating vectors. Once storms get into Missouri,
wind shear does weaken and there is a signal that storms could
begin to develop/slide more southeast with time and perhaps
backbuild. This is especially the case after 4am as storms move
towards central Missouri. The HRRR is on the southern envelope
of guidance, moving this cluster of storms across areas along
and north of Highway 54 around sunrise.

The limiting factor for severe storms by this time is the wind
shear. Shear will be decreasing since the stronger mid level
flow remains west of the area, therefore we may see more of a
unorganized/weakening cluster of storms still capable of
producing damaging winds. We will closely monitor this activity
as there is other model guidance keeping a stronger cold pool
which would allow for the complex to stay north of the area
entirely.

Past events/forecaster intuition would suggest that an outflow
boundary should remain somewhere near the area as the complex
moves east of the area and/or weakens. IF strong late
morning/early afternoon heating/destabilization can develop,
then storms could redevelop near that boundary, especially if
there is low level jet interaction. Wind shear might be a
limiting factor however there will be a severe threat if they
can become organized. Damaging winds to 60mph and large hail to
the size of quarters would be the most likely hazards. The
strong capping inversion will also play a role in the southward
extent of precip Monday, with the potential for areas south of
I-44 to remain dry. Overall, the confidence in the timing and
evolution of severe weather Monday is low with additional
updates likely. Highs in the 80s are possible again, especially
if clouds can decrease in the late morning/afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Severe Thunderstorm Potential Tuesday: A strong low level jet
will develop again late Monday night into Tuesday morning which
along with the upper level lift moving through will force
another line of storms to develop across Kansas. Most guidance
brings this into southeast Kansas and western Missouri after
midnight Tuesday, moving through most of southern Missouri
during the pre dawn and dawn hours Tuesday. The strongest
lift/shortwave energy will be moving north of the area and wind
shear again may be our limiting factor for severe storms.
Current expectations are for this line to weaken as it moves
through the area with a few severe storms capable of producing
damaging winds. The speed of the front and morning storm
evolution makes the afternoon severe potential highly uncertain.
Locations southeast of Springfield could see a slightly higher
severe threat if enough destabilization occurs.

Additional Rain Chances/Cooler Weather Mid/Late Week: Ensemble
data continues to suggests that the overall upper level pattern
does not change much as the area remains in the west/southwest
upper level flow pattern. The front that moves through Tuesday
will likely lift back into the area and will serve as a focus
for additional chances for showers and storms. Additional
shortwaves looks to move in late Wednesday through Friday and
rain chances have now increased into the 30-50% range. Cooler
air aloft and precip chances look to keep our temps several
degrees cooler than the last few days.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

A broken cloud deck around 3500ft will continue through the
afternoon hours. Some brief MVFR ceilings may occur but should
not be widespread or prolonged. There is a 20 percent chance of
a shower or storm this afternoon at SGF and BBG however
confidence is too low to include at this time. Winds will remain
gusty out of the south this afternoon with speeds around 20kts
and gusts to 30kts, especially at JLN. Winds will decrease
overnight and then increase again on Monday. Low level wind
shear is likely tonight at JLN and SGF. Considerable
uncertainty exists tomorrow with respect to thunderstorm
chances. Currently confidence is too low to include any morning
chances.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Record High Temperatures:

May 17:
KSGF: 88/2001
KJLN: 89/2001
KVIH: 92/1996
KUNO: 89/1980

May 18:
KSGF: 88/1962
KJLN: 90/1987
KVIH: 88/1996
KUNO: 89/2001


Record Warmest Low Temperatures:

May 17:
KSGF: 69/1974
KJLN: 75/1974
KUNO: 68/2017
KVIH: 68/2017

May 18:
KSGF: 68/1996
KJLN: 74/1996
KUNO: 66/2017
KVIH: 70/1996

May 19:
KSGF: 69/2013
KJLN: 74/1996
KUNO: 70/1996
KVIH: 70/1996

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Burchfield
CLIMATE...Burchfield