175
FXUS63 KSGF 270820
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
320 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for the area through 7 AM
  Tuesday. Heat index values around 105 to 115 degrees are
  expected.

- A Heat Advisory is in effect across the area from 7 AM Tuesday
  through 7 PM Tuesday as afternoon and early evening heat
  index values range from 100 to 110 degrees.

- Isolated storms will be possible across portions of central
  Missouri late this afternoon and early this evening though
  coverage will remain limited. A strong storm with gusty winds
  will be possible but the better chances will be east of the
  area.

- Some shower and thunderstorm chances (10-20%) will occur
  across portions of the area on Tuesday into Wednesday.
  Additional shower and thunderstorm chances (30-60%) will then
  occur late Thursday into Saturday at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

The upper level ridge of high pressure remains in place just to
the west of the area. The hot air mass remains in over the
region as 850mb temperatures are in the mid 20C. As a result
temperatures will be similar to yesterday as highs warm into the
upper 90s to around 100 degrees this afternoon into early this
evening. A drier air mass will be in the low levels of the
atmosphere today and more mixing should occur today than
occurred on Sunday. Therefore, dewpoints and humidity values
should be lower today. Afternoon RH values are expected to drop
into the 35 to 45% range and it is possible a few areas could
drop to the around 30% this afternoon. South to southwesterly
winds with gusts up to around 20-25mph will occur at times this
morning through the afternoon with the expected mixing. As a
result of more mixing today heat index values should be
slightly less than what occurred across the area yesterday.
Afternoon and early evening heat index values will generally be
in the 100 to 110 degree ranges this afternoon, though a few
locations could see heat index values top out around 115 degrees
today. The Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect across the
area today.

A cap will be in place across the area today, but some uncapped
elevated instability will develop north and east of the area
and cloud clip portions of central Missouri this afternoon/early
this evening. Some isolated storms will be possible to the
north and east of the area and could clip portions of central
Missouri late this afternoon into early this evening. Coverage
should remain limited across the area and it is also possible
the cap remains stronger today and no storms move into the area.
There will be the potential for a strong storm with gusty winds
if storms can make it into portions of central Missouri but
this is a low risk as MLCIN remains high over the area today.
The rest of the area should remain dry today as the cap remains
in place.

Lows tonight into Tuesday morning are only expected to cool
into the 70s to near 80 degrees again as the hot air mass
remains in place over the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

The ridge of high pressure will start to move back to the west
slightly tonight into Tuesday. This will leave the area more in
the upper level northwest flow. A weak front is expected to move
south towards the area as an upper level disturbance moves
through the northwest flow on Tuesday into Tuesday night.
Showers and thunderstorm development will be possible across
the central Plains this evening into tonight ahead of the upper
level disturbance. There will be the potential for this activity
to move southeast into the area Tuesday. The activity will
likely be weakening as it moves towards the area, if it can make
it into the area. Some uncapped elevated instability may
remain in place across the area on Tuesday therefore there will
be the potential for a few showers and thunderstorms to be
possible at times on Tuesday, and with peak heating some
scattered afternoon/evening storms redeveloping will be possible
too.

The hot air mass will remain in place across the area again on
Tuesday, but with the potential for increased clouds and some
rain potential for some of the area, temperatures could be
cooler on Tuesday. However, if the rain does not develop and if
clouds dissipate during the afternoon hours, the hotter
conditions will occur again on Tuesday with highs in the middle
90s to near 100 degrees. Less mixing may occur on Tuesday, so it
is possible for heat index values to warm to around 110 degrees
again Tuesday afternoon/early evening where plenty of sunshine
occurs. But if more clouds occur through the afternoon/early
evening hours temperatures and heat index values will be
cooler. Will continue the Heat Advisory across the area on
Tuesday based on the uncertainty on rain and cloud coverage
potential. It is possible portions of the area could approach
Extreme Heat Warning levels again on Tuesday if less clouds
occur south of the front Tuesday.

The ridge pushes back to the west more during the middle and end
of the week. The hotter air mass will also push back to the
west of the area with temperatures returning closer to normal,
in the upper 80s to lower/mid 90s mid and late week. The ridge
will push further to the east this weekend with highs in the
80s expected.

The area will remain in a northwest flow pattern Thursday night
into Saturday. An upper level disturbance will move through the
the region in the northwest flow and will bring shower and
thunderstorm chances (30-60%) to the area Thursday night into
Friday and could linger into Saturday. The exact track and how
widespread the rain will be is still questions as it is possible
it is more of a band of scattered showers and storms. If
showers and storms can train over the same locations there would
be the potential for locally heavy rainfall Thursday night into
Friday across portions of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

VFR conditions are expected at the TAFs overnight through the
day on Monday. South to southwesterly winds will occur across
the area through the TAF period. Winds will be gusty out of the
southwest at times Monday morning and afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for KSZ073-097-101.
     Heat Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.
     Heat Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise