170
FXUS63 KSGF 171847
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
Issued by National Weather Service St Louis MO
147 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Enhanced risk of severe storms (3 of 5) this afternoon
  through overnight.

- Enhanced risk of severe storms (3 of 5) Wednesday afternoon
  and evening.

- Slight risk (2 of 4) for excessive rainfall this evening and
  tonight for our western areas and marginal risk of excessive
  rainfall (1 of 4) on Wednesday into Wednesday evening.

- Humid and very warm temperatures late in the week into early
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 146 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Remnant showers and thunderstorms from earlier convection is
along an effective front extending from north of Wichita, KS
through NE OK and into NW AR. This persistent activity has
limited northward movement of the front and associated
instability gradient. The front and gradient will push into the
CWA this afternoon and stall somewhere over the
western/southwestern CWA into tonight. Multiple storm clusters
are expected to grow upscale as they develop W to NW of the CWA
and push into the area later this evening (mainly after 7pm)
into early Wednesday morning. Confidence in the evolution of
this complicated scenario is limited. In general, threats from
earlier convection this afternoon and evening will be large hail
to the size of half dollars, wind gusts up to 70 mph, and short
lived tornadoes as messy storm modes may include supercells at
times. Late this evening into tonight will transition into a
more linear storm mode with winds up to 80mph and short lived
tornadoes the primary threats. The greatest threats will exist
over the western CWA, mainly along and west of Highway 65.
Flooding will also be a concern, mainly along and west of
Highway 65, with generally 1-2 inches of rain expected, but
locally up to 3-4 inches per HREF PMM guidance.

Wednesday afternoon/evening: Greater uncertainty now exists for
this time period as early day MCS activity may sweep through
and limit instability redevelopment. This will likely remain
uncertain until morning convective trends can be observed. If
enough instability can develop, severe storms would be possible
as a shortwave and surface front focus for thunderstorm
redevelopment during the afternoon and continuing into the
evening. An Enhanced SPC risk is in place over the far
southeastern CWA, which is the most likely area to destabilize,
while a slight risk exists over most of the remaining portions
of the CWA. Worst case scenario features all mode severe risk
with hail up to golf ball size, 60 mph winds, and brief
tornadoes.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 146 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Previously advertised upper ridge amplification over the central
U.S. late in the week into the weekend as an upper low drops
into the Pacific northwest and northern Rockies. We will keep
the higher moisture over the area with dewpoints in the 70s with
temperatures warming into the upper 80s into the lower to middle
90s. We will likely see some heat index values from the mid 90s
to lower 100s by the end of the week into early next week.
Additionally lows will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s during
this time frame.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

VFR conditions currently exist at the area terminals and any
convection of note is across central Kansas. Over the next
several hours, a line of strong to severe thunderstorms will
develop and move into eastern Kansas and eventually southwest
Missouri. Exactly how far into southwest Missouri it gets still
remains to be seen, but expect convection at all terminals
overnight. KJLN has the best chance of seeing impacts, and as
such the prevailing TSRA was kept in the TAFs. Elsewhere,
PROB30s continue to be used until confidence increases on a
solution. Periods of MVFR stratus may follow the convection, but
conditions will improve through the late morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...MRB