941
FXUS63 KSGF 021130
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
630 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rainfall coverage and amounts continue to decrease through
  this morning, with precipitation exiting the area by this
  afternoon.

- Dry weather and more seasonable temperatures will then occur
  this weekend through the majority of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 227 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

The upper level system that we`ve been tracking over the past
few days has weakened substantially, with the previous 500mb closed
low now an open shortwave trough extending from western TX up
into northern MO/northern IL. Scattered showers have been
ongoing overnight, primarily in areas along/southeast of I-44.
As of 2AM, the 3-hour observed precipitation totals showed a
meager few hundredths of an inch, with some locations between
0.1-0.2". No lightning has been observed, as instability remains
weak, with drizzle being reported behind the light precip. The
surface cold front has been trekking southeast through the area
overnight, and is currently extending across southern MO.

As the early morning progresses, the cold front will continue
to sag southeast, and is progged to clear the forecast area
around sunrise. Some lingering drizzle/light rain will continue
to end from northwest to southeast through this morning before
fully exiting the CWA by late afternoon. Areas along/southeast
of I-44 could see additional rainfall amounts up to 0.4-0.75",
with amounts generally remaining below 0.1" north of the I-44
corridor.

Behind the frontal passage, a cooler and drier airmass will
begin to filter into the region, keeping afternoon temperatures
in the upper 60s to low 70s today.

Tonight will mark the beginning of an extended dry period, as
skies begin to clear from north to south. Expect overnight lows
to range in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 227 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Heading into the beginning of the weekend, upper level High
pressure will build over the desert southwest, with
northwesterly flow developing aloft. Dry conditions and close to
normal temperatures in the 70s and low 80s are expected through
midweek before a warm-up occurs, causing temperatures to climb
into the mid to upper 80s towards the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 614 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

IFR to LIFR conditions will continue at all TAF sites through
much of the morning before conditions improve from north to
south by ~20Z at KSGF and KJLN, and ~02Z at KBBG. Some drizzle
and light sprinkles will continue to be possible primarily at
KSGF and KBBG until 14Z. Otherwise, northeasterly surface winds
will gust up to 20kts at KSGF and KJLN between 16Z-23Z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Melto
LONG TERM...Melto
AVIATION...Melto