493
FXUS63 KSGF 030854
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
354 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Higher chance for thunderstorms (50-70%) along and north of
  Interstate 44 this evening and into the night. Some of these
  storms may be strong to severe as a Slight/Marginal risk for
  severe weather has been issued for that area.

- Cold front moves through Wednesday night bringing cooler than
  normal temperatures for Thursday.

- Another front moves through on Friday bringing another round
  of rain (30-60%) throughout the day and cooler temperatures in
  the 70s for the weekend and early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 259 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Today will start out mostly sunny with highs reaching the mid to
upper 80s by this afternoon. A cold front will move through this
evening bringing a chance (50-70%) for strong to severe
thunderstorms mainly north of I-44. The surface front will move
through first around 5-7pm and then the 850mb front will soon
follow around 6-8pm. Biggest threat with these storms will be
hail up to 1 inch with a secondary threat of damaging wind gusts
up to 60 mph. This is mostly because the surface front will not
be strong enough for storm initiation. It won`t be until right
before the 850mb front goes through that we will see the most
activity from this system. This means that the storms will
likely be more elevated in nature and, thus, bring us some
larger hail stones. The convective allowing models mostly agree
on the timing and have a line of storms from west to east across
the state moving south more during the evening hours than the
afternoon hours. NE KS and NW MO have the best chance of
seeing severe weather due to the higher dewpoints, greater
instability, and stronger frontogenesis. The lack of diurnal
heating may also play a factor as the front won`t make it
through our area until near sunset today which will limit our
severe potential. If it were to speed up, we may see a few
storms initiate near central MO later this afternoon around that
5pm timeframe.

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight/Marginal risk
for severe weather today mostly north of I-44. The Slight risk
(2/5) mainly incorporates the northern portions of Bourbon,
Vernon, St. Clair, and Benton counties. Then, areas under those
counties and north of I-44 are outlined in a Marginal risk (1/5)
for severe weather. Widespread heavy rainfall isn`t expected
and the areas north of I-44 have the best chance of seeing up to
1 inch of rain. Expect rain to linger through the overnight
hours and taper off by Thursday morning.

Clouds will start to clear out by Thursday morning and high
temperatures will feel a little bit cooler in the upper 70s and
lower 80s. Lows for Thursday night will be in the upper 50s to
lower 60s most partly cloudy skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 259 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Friday features another frontal passage. Model guidance is
trending cooler and cooler for us this weekend as a front makes
its way through the area by Friday afternoon/evening. Right
now, there isn`t severe weather expected with that front.
There are chances for rain through most of the day on Friday.
Though, rain chances are at their highest by Friday
afternoon/evening hours (30-60%). Expect rain showers to be
intermittent on Friday with a 20-40% chance of rain covering
most of the area. If attending any outdoor activities on Friday,
make sure to know before you go and check the latest forecast
at weather.gov/sgf. Rain will push north to south through the
night and will be out of here by Saturday morning. The rest of
the weekend is forecast to stay mostly dry. The start of next
week features a 15-20% chance for rain for Monday and Tuesday as
a series of shortwaves move through the area.

Highs for this weekend will be cooler than average once we get
another dose of decent cold air advection. Highs will be in the
70s with lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s across the area.
Skies will be partly cloudy with winds starting out northerly on
Saturday, but then turning out of the southeast by Sunday as
surface high pressure builds in over the Great Lakes region.
Highs will still be in the 70s for Monday, but then warm back
into the low 80s by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

VFR through the period with variable winds overnight and cloud
cover continuing to dissipate. Winds will turn out of the
southwest later this morning and generally stay under 10 knots.
Clouds build back in this evening bringing a chance for
thunderstorms overnight as a cold front moves through.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Soria
LONG TERM...Soria
AVIATION...Soria