456
FXUS63 KSGF 011110
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
610 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue
  into Friday. There will be the potential for some locally
  heavy rainfall with this system, but widespread flooding is
  not expected.

- Dry weather and more seasonable temperatures will then occur
  this weekend through the majority of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 239 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Synoptic analysis shows a closed 500mb low situated over the
OK/TX panhandles, which will be the primary focus in the short
term as it will bring widespread rainfall (more on this later).
Additionally, subtle shortwave troughs associated with an upper
low north of Minnesota over Canada have been moving eastward
along the pseudo-zonal flow across the northern CONUS. Upper
level energy from the aforementioned closed low almost seems to
translate around the system and pass off to the subtle
shortwaves, which has allowed for light showers to occur out
ahead of the larger system. Radar as of 2AM shows these light
rain showers extending from far southeast KS up through western
and central MO. With the 00Z sounding showing a fairly stable
airmass, no lightning has been observed within our forecast area
so far during the early morning, as thunderstorms remain
further west and southwest of the area.

As the morning progresses, the closed low will open up in a wave
as it pushes east/northeast and weakens. As it further
approaches the area, CAMs show the showers/storms currently
over eastern OK pushing northeast into the western CWA,
generally bringing high precipitation chances (65-95+%) along
and west of Highway 65 by this afternoon before spreading
eastward over the remainder of the forecast area this
evening/tonight. An associated surface cold front is progged to
then push southeast through the area tonight, pushing the
precipitation mostly out of the area by Friday afternoon.

With PWATs between 1.5-2.0" (surpassing the 90th percentile and
daily maximum), we`re expecting sufficient rainfall, with
0.5-1.0" southeast of I-44, and between 2-3" northwest of I-44,
especially in areas along/west of I-49. The REFS 24-hr LPMM
supports these values fairly well, with a swath of 1-3"
extending through SE KS and western MO. That being said, we
continue to hold off on any Flood products, as the severe (D2)
to extreme (D3) drought should hinder widespread flooding
concerns. The exception would be with any convective elements
providing heavier rainfall within a short amount of time,
leading to localized heavy rainfall and flooding concerns. We`ll
continue to monitor this potential as the system continues.

There will be a large spread (10-15 degrees) in the afternoon
highs today, as rain keep temperatures in the mid 70s in the
northwest CWA, while drier conditions allow temps to climb into
the mid to upper 80s southeast of I-44 towards south-central MO.
Once the aforementioned cold front sweeps through
tonight/tomorrow morning, a much cooler and more seasonable
airmass will settle in, with highs staying in the mid/upper 60s
to low 70s on Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 239 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

A drier airmass will settle into the region, with dry
conditions through the weekend and into the majority of the
work week. Expect temperatures to remain in the 70s on a daily
basis before a warm-up occurs mid-week causing temps to climb
back into the 80s for many.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 606 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

VFR conditions to start the TAF period, however conditions will
periodically diminish down to MVFR at KJLN this morning before
widespread MVFR and IFR conditions occur after 03Z tonight with
a frontal passage. Scattered showers and storms will continue
pushing into the area affecting all TAF sites. Kept any mention
of -TSRA in a PROB30 group, as coverage of thunder is
uncertain.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Melto
LONG TERM...Melto
AVIATION...Melto