073
FXUS63 KSGF 301735 CCA
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1235 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight into
  Friday. There will be the potential for some locally heavy
  rainfall with this system, but widespread flooding is not
  expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Currently, the well advertised system is in the form of a deeply
closed 500mb low over the AZ/NM border and a ~1000 mb surface
low over the Oklahoma panhandle.

As the system moves east, the low will become stacked over
western KS, then weaken to an open wave well before it gets
over our area. Precip chances will increase gradually from west
to east late this evening through Thursday, focusing mainly W
of Hwy 65 through Thursday morning. Precip will then NW to SE on
Friday, with most areas being dry by Friday night.

Rainfall amounts remain highly uncertain, but models continue to
show the greatest amounts along and west of I-49. The forecast
(most likely) QPF is 0.5-1.0" along/south of I-44 and 1-2" north
of I-44 with potential for 2-3 inches over parts of SE KS and
far W MO. Again, higher than normal uncertainty exists for this
time range, so changes are possible. These values themselves
will not be enough for flooding, but convective elements could
lead to locally higher amounts and localized flooding.
Precipitable Water values are forecast to be 1.5-2.0 inches,
which is 150-200% of normal values, supporting the threat for
these higher amounts with convective elements.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

The weekend into early next week is quiet with no precip in the
forecast, highs in the 70s, and lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Rain chances will increase from west to east tonight into
Thursday, eventually leading to MVFR conditions at all sites
(later in the day after this TAF period at KBBG).

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Titus