418
FXUS63 KSGF 281940
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
140 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread precipitation chances (85-100%) tonight through
  Saturday. Most areas will remain as rain with areas along and
  east of Highway 63 seeing some brief snow or rain-snow mix
  late tonight into Saturday morning. No wintry impacts
  expected.

- Breezy winds expected tonight through Sunday morning with
  gusts up to 25-35 mph. A few stray gusts up to 40-45 mph are
  possible (30-50% chance). This will result in single digit
  wind chills Sunday morning as colder air moves into the
  Ozarks.

- Another system will bring a 30-50% chance of precipitation
  Monday. Any precipitation that does occur will likely be snow
  (80-90% chance). Any accumulations would be light.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1235 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

A look at satellite early this afternoon showers high clouds
moving over the region with an advancing line of low to middle
stratus marching eastward across eastern Kansas. Under this
cloud cover and where colder air is already in place, eastern
Nebraska for example, some rain/snow has already been reported
by ground observations. Surface low pressure was wrapping up
and will begin to move east into the plains through tonight.

As the storm system develops and moves east, a strong surface
and elevated pressure gradient will develop allowing for
increasing winds at the surface and aloft. Additionally, rather
strong moisture advection will be ongoing. By this evening,
when the surface low makes it`s way into the Central plains,
cloud cover will have made it into the Ozarks ans so will
showers and possible a few snow flakes mixed in for portions of
central Missouri. Any snow will become all rain however as the
low moves east across Kansas and the Ozarks remain in the warmer
sector. Thanks to cloud cover and rain, temperatures will be in
the lower 30s (eastern Ozarks) to the lower 40s (I-49 and west)
overnight.

For Saturday into Saturday night: Rain will be ongoing in the
morning and through the day Saturday as the surface low makes
its way easy and marches across Missouri into Saturday night.
This will bring good lift, moisture and dynamics to produce some
decent rain across the region. Current indications are a
widespread 0.25 inches to 0.75 inches across the area. As the
low lifts of to the northeast Saturday night and colder air
filters into the region, some of the precipitation may change
over to snow across portions of central Missouri mainly east of
Highway 63. Ground temperatures and the rain will limit any
accumulations. Any snow that mixes in would occur between 1 and
8 AM Saturday before warmer air moves in and all precipitation
becomes rain.

Model soundings have held onto rather slight MUCAPE of around
100 J/kg, mainly elevated associated with the low. This is
mainly due to the NAMNest showing 200-400 J/kg while most other
models sit near 0. This may allow for a random rumble of
thunder or two. If this were to occur, brief heavier rainfall
would be possible in accusation to the convection.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Sunday into Sunday night: The storm system will be making is way
towards the Great Lakes early Sunday morning, with cold air
advection occurring in earnest through the day Sunday. Sunday
morning will see continued tight surface gradients and gusty
winds, making for a blustery start to the day with wind chills
in the single digits to start the day as lows dip to around 20
degrees. Winds will fall off through the day ad the system
continues to lift northeast and surface high pressure filters
into the plains. With the exception of a few lingering clouds
afternoon highs on Sunday will be in the lower to middle 30s
despite sunshine.

Monday into Tuesday: Cold Canadian surface high pressure will
move over the the upper midwest, centered over Iowa by Sunday
night. This will allow temperatures to fall into the lower 20s
to middle teens by Monday morning with light winds. The will be
little help with temperatures Monday as middle level clouds move
over the region keeping highs in check for the day. Most
locations will see temperatures at or below the freezing mark
Monday.

The clouds just mentioned will be associated with an upper
level short wave that will move across the plains and bring to
middle to upper level energy to the region Monday night into
early Tuesday. This clipper type system will bring the potential
for some light snow, some of which may accumulate. The speed of
the system may limit the amount of moisture that would be
available for precipitation, which, due to the temperatures in
place Monday night, would come in the form of snow. There remain
some guidance that keeps the region dry for the period but for
now have kept the 30-50% chance for precipitation Monday into
Monday night with an inch or less of snow if accumulations do
occur. Tuesday will see only slight improvement in
temperatures, though most should see highs limb above the
freezing mark during the afternoon.

The remainder of the next week into the end of next week: Cold
weather will remain on tap for Tuesday and through next week as
a dry cold front will move across the Plains and the Ozarks for
the middle of the week with another round of cold air sliding
south in to the area for the end of the week. Overall, the
pattern looks as though it will remain cooler than average to
start December with highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s each
day.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1137 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

A pattern change is underway across the region which will impact
aviation concerns tonight through the weekend. Increasing
clouds with VFR to MVFR ceilings will occur through 02z to 04z
this evening with rain moving across the area overnight. This
will bring MVFR visibilities and occasionally MVFR to IFR
ceilings.

A strong 70 to 75kt southerly low level jet (approximately
5000ft agl) will move over the Ozarks tonight into Saturday
morning. This will bring potential wind shear concerns for the
KJLN and KBBG terminals tonight through Saturday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Hatch