537
FXUS63 KSGF 272250
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
550 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms likely this afternoon, decreasing by
  sunset. Rain rates of 1 to 3 inches an hour and an isolated
  strong downburst or two will be possible in the strongest
  cells. Additional morning and afternoon storms on Saturday.

- Daily heat index values in the middle to upper 90s into early
  next week.

- Daily shower and thunderstorm activity through next week,
  mainly isolated to scattered in nature. Greatest coverage will
  be Sunday night into Monday with a frontal passage. No all
  day washouts expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: The area remained on
the northwest side of a mid level high over the southeast US
with a few passing mid level vorts. A very moist airmass has
moved into the area with the latest RAP analysis showing PW
values near a record 2.0in. An outflow boundary moved into the
area this morning and with morning heating, scattered storms
developed across the area. Wind shear is weak therefore slower
storm motions and high PW values have led to very efficient
rainfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour. Temps have cooled off
into the 70s behind the outflow as a shield of light rain and
clouds have moved in.

This Afternoon through Tonight: Guidance suggests that the
afternoon storms will continue, especially along and southeast
of I-44 where the airmass is the most unstable. A few wind gusts
to 40mph and isolated flooding will occur with the most
concentrated cells however severe storms and widespread flooding
is not expected. Guidance suggests that storm intensity
and coverage will decrease towards sunset.

Kept pops low for the first of the overnight hours however a low
level jet looks to develop later in the night across Oklahoma
and may nudge into southwest Missouri. HREF data suggests
scattered showers and storms developing to our west and
southwest and moving/developing into our area after 3am.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

A near repeat could occur on Saturday as morning thunderstorms
expand/develop with morning heating. Currently it appears that
the area could be a little farther south than today therefore
highest chances are along and south of Interstate 44. Pops may
need to be increased if this area looks to still be the favored
zone. May also have to reduce temps as well if clouds/precip
look to linger longer into the day, however for now have kept
highs in the middle 80s.

Another low level jet Saturday night looks to cause more storm
chances Sunday and again Monday with 50-70% chances now for both
days. They dont look to be washouts however scattered showers
and storms are a good bet. Localized heavy rainfall/isolated
flooding and lightning will be the main concerns. Those with
outdoor plans this weekend will need to keep an eye on the radar
and forecasts and have alternate plans in case of thunderstorms.

Ensembles show a slight pattern change Tuesday and Wednesday
with a more northwesterly flow however 30 pops return for
Thursday. High temps in the middle to upper 80s look likely
however some areas could reach 90 where cloud cover is lowest.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 550 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are dissipating this
evening across southern MO. VFR conditions prevail through the
overnight before additional activity returns to the area on
Saturday. Highest coverage of rain chances occur on Saturday
afternoon, with periods of MVFR to IFR flight conditions as a
result of reduced visibilities and ceilings. Winds light out of
south-southwest through the period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Perez