483
FXUS63 KSGF 071128
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
628 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple chances for rainfall this weekend into Monday with
  flooding possible. The greatest potential for widespread
  precipitation will be Saturday evening into Sunday (70-80%).
  Rainfall placement and amount remains uncertain.

- Marginal Risk for severe weather tonight into Saturday
  morning, then again Saturday night into Sunday. Severe weather
  threat is highly dependent on near term details.

- A cooler than average start to next week will be possible with
  highs Monday and Tuesday in the middle 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Today will be quiet with gradually increasing cloud cover and
highs in the mid to upper 80s.

For this evening into Saturday morning, shortwave energy moving
north of here and the low level jet over the area and nosing to
our north will lead to an MCS that primarily focuses north of
the CWA. Could see some early development over the NW CWA ahead
of the MCS, but main concerns should hold off until after
midnight and linger into Saturday morning. Severe threat should
diminish through the night with a marginal risk for 1" hail and
60mph winds N of I-44 and along/W of Hwy 65 late this evening
into the early overnight hours. Heavy rain will be a concern,
but with the focus of convection being north of the CWA and
mainly peripheral convection over our CWA, the threat for
flooding is limited with this round and highest over the far
northern CWA. Biggest question is how far south into our CWA
does convection develop.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Depending on clearing and resulting surface heating, severe
weather will be a concern Saturday evening into Saturday night.
Flooding will also be a concern Saturday evening into at least
Sunday.

A front looks to stall over the CWA Saturday into Sunday, which
will be a focus for training convection given mainly W-E flow
aloft. Convection will be sparked initially by shortwave energy.
SREF 25th-75th percentile MUCAPE is 2,500 J/kg with deep layer
shear of 30-40 kts at 00Z Sunday (Saturday evening). Instability
will naturally fade through Saturday night, but remain
sufficient for continued convection into Sunday. This may
support discrete cells, possibly supercellular, Saturday
evening quickly growing upscale, resulting in a large hail and
damaging wind threat, although details will depend on short term
conditions. If enough clearing does occur, highs are currently
forecast to be in the mid 80s to low 90s with heat index values
of 90-100 on Saturday.

Flooding is looking increasingly likely where training
convection occurs late Saturday into Sunday. Models show PWAT
values of 2-2.5" along the front, which is around 150-200% of
normal. With time we may be able to better pinpoint an area for
training convection and flooding, but that is difficult at this
time. Our forecast shows a band of 2-3" of rain, but isolated
higher amounts are quite possible. We normally like to look at
HREF PMM/LPMM QPF values to assess the higher end localized QPF
potential, but the HREF only goes out to 00Z Sunday. Early
thoughts are that locally up to 5-6" is possible given LREF max
QPF output, but stay tuned for updates on this.

Confidence decreases further Sunday afternoon into Monday as
some models push the front south of the area while others keep
it over the area and bring additional MCS activity through the
area Sunday night and Monday. Any additional rainfall potential
would have a flooding threat given earlier rainfall, so stay
tuned for updates on this time period.

Sunday through Tuesday looks much cooler with highs in the 70s
for the most part. Highs then bounce back into the 80s Wednesday
and Thursday. Currently have no precip in the forecast Tuesday
through Thursday, but some light precip is not out of the
question.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 621 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

VFR conditions will persist through the rest of today at KSGF
and KJLN, and through the rest of the TAF period at KBBG.
Showers and thunderstorms will then be possible tonight into
Saturday morning at KSGF and KJLN, but there is limited
confidence in how far south the activity will develop so left
any mentions of thunderstorms in prob30 groups.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Titus