047
FXUS63 KSGF 061710
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1110 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms could start between 4-6 PM today with the
  highest coverage expected after 6-8 PM. There may be two
  rounds of severe weather with supercells/clusters as the first
  round, and a potential line of storms for the second round.
  Second round timing would be around 11 PM to 5 AM.

- Tornado threat is the greatest over far SW MO but tornadoes
  are possible for the whole area. Damaging wind threat up to 70
  mph and 2" to tennis ball sized hail are also possible,
  especially west of Highway 5.

- Localized flash flooding will occur tonight under any stronger
  storms. A few storms could have rain rates of 1-2"/hr which
  would cause flooding with our 1-2" flash flood guidance.

- Another system will bring a chance of strong to severe storms
  the middle of next week with Tuesday outlooked by SPC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Current water vapor imagery paired with RAP analysis depicts
a near N-S trough axis extending from central Arizona northward
into central Montana. Despite flow being somewhat
climatologically normal for early March, the broad southwesterly
flow across the Rocky Mountain front range is forcing deep lee
cyclogenesis along the CO/KS border. The associated mass
response is lifting a warm front north of our area. Current
observations have this front stretching eastward across north
KS and central MO. These surface features, along with a roaring
40+ kt low-level jet, is increasing southerly winds and
associated warm and moist air advection. Due to dewpoints near
60 F, lows are on track to stay in the upper 50s to lower 60s
this morning. On the eastern edge of the downstream branch of
the trough, clusters of thunderstorms are moving northeast
through north OK and east KS.


Lingering showers and storms over east KS/west MO this morning:

Through the morning hours, some of the lingering showers and
storms may clip our southeast KS and far west MO counties. No
severe weather are expected with these storms if they do clip
into our area.


Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms today through tonight:

Later today, enhanced flow downstream of the trough axis will
slowly shift eastward. As this occurs, a compact shortwave will
lift northeast through north KS/east NE. This will slowly shift
the aforementioned surface low ESE along the KS/OK border and
marginally increase dewpoints across the area to just above 60
F. With the warm front quickly lifting into the
Minnesota/Wisconsin area by midday, a warm and unstable airmass
will be present across much of the central Plains, with the HREF
bringing our area to 750-1500 J/kg SBCAPE. With enhanced flow
aloft inching into the area, 0-6 km bulk shear values are
expected to increase to 35-40 kts. This sets the stage for an
airmass capable of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
through the night.


Locations and Timing:

Two rounds of storms are expected today. The first round looks
to occur in the expansive warm sector from central OK/KS
eastward to west MO/AR. While the main shortwave is expected to
stay well northwest of the area with surface features like a
dry line and cold front also well west and northwest of our
area, persistent enhanced southwesterly warm air advection
should present enough synoptic scale ascent for thunderstorms,
perhaps discrete to semi-discrete supercells, to develop in
east OK/KS and west MO/AR during peak heating. These storms
would move east-northeast through our area. The second round
then looks to occur as a line of storms along a crashing cold
front moves in from the northwest. This would occur later
overnight.

-First Round: Thunderstorms, some supercells, develop as early
 as 3-6 PM across east OK/KS and west MO/AR (along I-49
 corridor). Peak coverage after 6-8 PM between I-49 and Highway
 5. Along Highway 63 corridor by 12-2 AM. Clearing the eastern
 area by 3-5 AM.

-Second Round: Line of storms reaching I-49 corridor by 11 PM to
 1 AM. Moving through Highway 65 corridor between 2-5 AM.
 Dissipating around the Highway 63 corridor by 5-7 AM.


Hazards and Impacts:

The hazards associated with each round of storms will vary
slightly. Since supercells are possible with the first round,
hazards with the first round have a higher potential intensity
than with the second round.

-First Round: Up to 2 inch to tennis ball sized hail, damaging
 wind gusts up to 60 mph, and tornadoes are all potential
 hazards, especially across far southwest Missouri. Localized
 flooding in stronger storms.

Meteorological Details: The environment within the open warm
sector will consist of increasing low-level shear, especially as
the evening commences with a strengthening nocturnal LLJ. 0-1 km
bulk shear and SRH will increase from 30-35 kts and 150-250
m2/s2 to 40-45 kts and 200-300 m2/s2, respectively. This will
enlarge curved hodographs in the low-levels and introduce a
tornado threat with any supercell. The main uncertainty with the
tornado threat is conditional on how strong any supercells can
get. A look at HREF/REFS soundings shows marginal low-level
lapse rates leading to weak low-level instability (<50-75 J/kg
3CAPE). Additionally, 35-40 kt bulk shear values are on the
fringe of being supportive for supercells. As a result, storms
may be slow to grow, with the potential for many to be stunted
if unable to tap into the instability/shear.

HREF/REFS soundings depict mean lapse rates at 7.5-8 C/km,
which combined with other parameters leads to a 4-6 Large Hail
Parameter. Based on research, this suggests max hail size of
1.5-2 inches. Due to weak sub-HGZ CAPE (<200 J/kg) and stronger
storm-relative inflow (>25-30 kts), however, hail embryos may be
allowed to have increased residence time in the HGZ, which
could bring maximum hail sizes to 2 inches or up to tennis ball
size (2.5 inches).

Once again, the upper-end of the intensity scale will be
conditional on if supercells can strengthen amid relatively
weaker shear and low-level instability. The SPC has a CIG1
level for these hazards, signaling that if the supercells can
achieve peak strength, a strong tornado (EF2+) and/or large
hailstones (2"+) could occur as a reasonable worst case.

Lastly, localized flooding will be possible in any of the
stronger storms. CAMs are depicting potential hourly rates of
1-2 in/hr. Given the already soggy ground, our current flash
flood guidance is also 1-2 inches, which means the stronger
storms could promote some localized flash flooding.

-Second Round: Damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, quarter-sized
 hail, and generally weaker spin-up tornadoes are all potential
 hazards, especially northwest of I-44.

Meteorological Details: Strong background synoptic winds with
the cold frontal forcing will bring the potential for damaging
wind gusts within the squall line up to 60-70 mph. Additionally,
the cold front and line of storms is expected to be oriented
from the SSW to NNE. 30-35 kt 0-3 km bulk shear vectors are
progged to be oriented to the ENE, which is somewhat parallel
to the line of storms. That said, any surges to the ENE would
bring the potential for spin-up tornadoes.


Remaining Uncertainties:

In addition to the uncertainty in the peak intensity of hazards
discussed above, there also remains some uncertainty in the
evolution of each round. How the first round evolves may have an
impact on the second round. The 00Z suite of CAMs suggests a
scenario where the first round of storms congeal into bowing
clusters or a line as they progress eastward. If this occurs,
stable air in the wake of the cluster of storms would act to
decrease the intensity of the second line of storms. On the
other hand, if the first round struggles to even form strong
storms due to the weaker low-level instability and deep-layer
shear, the second round may achieve peak intensity longer and over
more locations (70 mph wind gusts and spin-up tornadoes). Keep
up with forecast trends for any favored scenarios and resulting
hazards.


Some additional more stratiform rainfall is possible across far
southern Missouri during the day Saturday, but for the most
part, areas will see drier and cooler air behind the fronts with
highs ranging from 70 F in the eastern Ozarks, to the middle 50s
across southeast KS/west MO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Well above normal temperatures to continue through mid-week:

After cooler temperatures Saturday night in the middle to upper
30s, southerly flow will resume as the surface high pressure
behind the cold front translates east of the area. This will
bring highs Sunday into the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Global ensembles then forecast a closed low to slowly approach
the area from the Baja Peninsula. Downstream southwesterly flow
and amplified ridging will continue warm/moist air advection,
bringing highs Monday and Tuesday into the upper 70s. NBM 75th
percentile even has Springfield reaching 80 F, which would
nearly challenge the current record of 81 F. Lows Monday night
will also be very mild due to the increased moisture, with
temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s. This would also
challenge record low max temperatures.


Next system to bring severe thunderstorm chances Tuesday:

The aforementioned closed low is progged to lolly-gag its way
into the southern Plains during mid-week. LREF clusters
understandably show a range of timing/phasing of the low. This
is par for the course for closed lows due to the sensitivity of
their track due to vorticity advection on all sides.
Nevertheless, due to the persistent moisture advection ahead of
the low, a broad warm sector will be in place and with lift
ahead of the low, another round of showers and storms are
likely Tuesday (80-90% chance) and Wednesday (45-65% chance).
There may still be some deviations in exact timing due to the
differing scenarios in LREF clusters of the speed of the wave.
However, there is more certainty in a shortwave progression with
the polar jet stream across the northern states. This leads to
a greater chance for storms Tuesday as a cold front associated
with this wave moves through. Given the unstable warm sector and
increased shear from enhanced flow downstream of the closed
low, severe weather would be possible with this system. The SPC
has us outlooked in a 15% risk for that day. Continue to monitor
the forecast for more details.


Above normal temperatures continue through the rest of the week:

Behind the system, temperatures are forecast to marginally cool,
but with the polar jet stream progged to stay north of the area,
above normal temperatures are still expected. Highs in the 60s
are expected Wednesday through Friday, with lows in the upper
30s to middle 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1105 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

VFR conditions will be ongoing at the start of the TAF period
with some breezy southerly winds. Isolated to scattered showers
and storms will develop across extreme southeast Kansas and
southwest Missouri this afternoon and could potentially impact
the JLN terminal, but confidence in storm initiation remains
fairly low at this time, and any mention of lightning was
limited to a PROB30 group until confidence in storm coverage
increases this evening and overnight. Storms look to become more
widespread after 00Z as a cold front moves through the area,
bringing MVFR to IFR conditions. Some of these storms could be
severe and produce wind gusts near 50 kt.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Price
LONG TERM...Price
AVIATION...Didio