916
FXUS63 KSGF 040623
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
123 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect through Sunday.
  Temperatures will be 10-15+ degrees above normal with daily
  Heat Index values 100-110. Heat headline upgrades/extensions
  may be needed in the coming days.

- Minimal rain chances for the next seven days. Hot and dry
  conditions are worsening drought and increasing fire danger.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 123 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Synoptic Overview:

Water vapor imagery depicts the prominent upper-level ridge that
has been bringing the sustained heat has retrograded to the west
slightly since Thursday, bringing the ridge axis closer to the
Missouri Ozarks.

Heat Continues:

Other than the slight shift in the ridge axis positioning,
little has changed in the synoptic pattern, meaning persistence
is a reliable forecast method once again today. That is, hot
and dry weather will continue. Widespread afternoon heat index
values between 100 to 105 will be common, but locally higher
values will occur--particularly in sheltered or lower
elevations where dew points are higher. NWS HeatRisk is maxing
out at Extreme (Level 4 of 4) for much of the area largely due
to consecutive days of abnormal heat and little overnight
relief; a Heat Advisory remains in effect areawide.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 123 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Confidence is high that this heat wave will continue into the
weekend. Ensembles demonstrate strong agreement in building the
aforementioned ridge back to the west Saturday into Sunday,
becoming centered over the Plains. Southwest Missouri and
southeast Kansas will remain under its influence, and afternoon
heat index values will continue to climb into the 100 to 110
degree range. Therefore, the Heat Advisory has been extended
through 8 PM Sunday areawide. With some localized areas reaching
a 105+ heat index for the last two days, it is entirely possible
the four convective day criteria comes into play and an upgrade
to an Extreme Heat Warning is needed. However, because the
previous observations of 105+ deg heat index and the forecast
locations of future 105+ deg heat index are not spatially
consistent with one another, confidence was not high enough to
issue a warning for any specific location.

As the ridge builds across the Plains, a diffuse cold front
will sag southwestward into Missouri. Global models continue to
vary in this front`s progression, but its passage may bring
slightly cooler temperatures to the eastern Ozarks and south-
central Missouri early in the week. A few global models still
want to spit out isolated patches of light QPF, but these
chances remain very low (10-15%) as the better upper-level energy
remains displaced to the north and east.

Ensemble clusters diverge more significantly by the middle of
next week. There is some signal, at least, of a flattening
ridge and an open door for rain chances. NBM PoPs are currently
at 15-25% on Thursday. With the persistent heat and a lack of
appreciable rainfall in the meantime, drought conditions will
deteriorate, and fuels will be more susceptible to fire starts.
These conditions will need to be monitored closely in the coming
weeks for the potential of worsening impacts.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 640 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all TAF sites for the
entire period. Winds will range from 3-8 kts between 03-15Z, and
between 8-12 kts between 15-00Z, with a 7-8 kft cu field
developing also between 15-00Z.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Record High Temperatures:

September 3:
KSGF: 102/2000
KJLN: 102/1954
KVIH: 100/1897

September 4:
KJLN: 102/1954

September 5:
KSGF: 99/1998
KJLN: 103/1998
KUNO: 101/1954

September 6:
KSGF: 100/1960
KJLN: 101/1954
KUNO: 101/1990

September 7:
KJLN: 101/1998

September 8:
KSGF: 98/1960
KJLN: 98/1955
KVIH: 100/1901
KUNO: 99/1990

September 9:
KSGF: 98/1939
KJLN: 100/1947
KVIH: 97/1897
KUNO: 99/1980


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

September 3:
KSGF: 74/2011

September 4:
KSGF: 75/1913

September 5:
KSGF: 76/1998

September 6:
KSGF: 76/1925

September 7:
KSGF: 77/1899

September 8:
KSGF: 76/1925

September 9:
KSGF: 75/1939

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Didio
LONG TERM...Didio
AVIATION...Price
CLIMATE...Titus/Camden