433
FXUS63 KSGF 010522
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1222 AM CDT Sun Nov 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered light showers at times across portions of the area
  today and tonight with a few light showers lingering into
  Sunday. Periods of dry time accompany this system.

- 15-25 mph southerly winds with gusts up to 35 mph are expected
  on Monday. The strongest winds will generally occur along and
  west of Highway 65. Very low probability (<10%) for winds to
  exceed Wind Advisory Criteria.

- 90+% chance for rain to move across the area late Monday into
  Tuesday. Monitoring a low-end potential for severe weather
  with this system.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

No significantly impactful weather expected in the short term.
Mainly looking at scattered light showers (with little not
thunder risk) persisting into tonight, then isolated light
showers lingering into Sunday. Forecast rainfall amounts
generally range from < 0.10 inches N of I-44 to 0.10-0.20 south
of I-44.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Synopsis: A deep upper trough is shown by all guidance to move
through the central CONUS on Tuesday, resulting in a high
confidence in precip chances (90+%) moving west to east through
the area. There still remains considerable model spread on some
details of the system, such as shortwave energy
location/strength within the larger trough and subsequent low
level pressure fields. Cluster analysis of ensembles doesn`t
significantly favor one outcome over another, further reducing
confidence on outcomes such as wind gusts and precip amounts.
Mid to late week is considerably uncertain as models
significantly vary in the evolution of the pattern, with some
showing the trough or upper low stalling and lingering near the
CWA, while others have a more progressive pattern with shortwave
energy moving through.

Winds Monday: Minimally hazardous southerly gusts up to 35 mph
are currently expected for Monday. Given the uncertainty in the
low level pressure fields, these expectations may change with
time, but current NBM probabilities for gusts above Wind
Advisory levels are generally < 10%.

Severe potential late Monday into Monday night: SPC has a
marginal risk for severe weather along/West of Hwy 65 and a
slight risk over portions of our southeast Kansas counties. It
is quite likely that deep layer shear will be > 50 kts, but
instability and other near-term details remain quite uncertain.
At this time, ensemble and deterministic outputs keep MUCAPE <
500 J/kg, with many showing < 250 J/kg. This limits confidence
in severe potential in our CWA, but many of the important
mesoscale details are not resolvable given the uncertainty in
even synoptic level details.

Rainfall amounts late Monday and Tuesday: Overall amounts have
been trending lower, with the forecast totals now at 0.8-1.5
inches. While considerable uncertainly in these details remains,
CAM output suggests that some areas have potential to see very
little rainfall and many areas may not see meaningful drought
relief. NBM probabilities for total rainfall >= 1.0 inches
ranges from 50% over the western CWA to 70% over the east.
Probabilities for >= 2.0 inches is 10-40% (greatest SE of
Springfield). Not seeing any noteworthy flooding potential at
this time.

Mid to late week: Given uncertainty, kept the NBM blend
untouched in this time range, resulting some 15-25% chances for
rain, highs in the 60s, and lows in the 30s to 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sun Nov 1 2026

A system continues to move through the area overnight and into
Sunday morning. Areas of scattered light rain chances persist
through the early morning hours, before dissipating from west to
east. Expect reduced visibilities around 4 to 6 miles at KJLN
and KSGF. Further reduced visibilities approaching 2 miles or
less at KBBG as we progress through the early Sunday morning.

Meanwhile, ceilings will continue to deteriorate with
widespread MVFR to IFR ranging from 500 to 1500 feet. LIFR
ceilings around 300 feet envelop KBBG. Light rain chances
gradually diminish through Sunday morning, with IFR to MVFR
ceilings lingering into the later part of the TAF period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Perez