756
FXUS63 KSGF 040502
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1102 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of drizzle into early Wednesday morning, especially
  along and northwest of I-44.

- Light rain chances return on Thursday (20-50%) with dry
  weather expected this weekend, and a warm-up next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 300 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Current conditions present a classic mid-latitude cyclone
centered over the NE KS and NW MO corners. Widespread showers
are noted ahead of the cold front east of Highway 63, a
dry/clear slot is directly behind this band over the Highway 65
corridor, then low-level clouds are noted along and west of I-49
where the comma-head of the cyclone is positioned. Within this
comma-head, some lowered visibilities due to brief bouts of
drizzle have been observed. Widespread totals across the area
are up to half an inch to an inch, with a localized band of 2-3
inches stretching from Kimberling City up through Marshfield and
Lebanon. Elsewhere, another upper-level low is currently moving
over the west coast.


Showers and isolated thunderstorms exiting the area:

The showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms across the
eastern portions of our area are forecast to move out of the
area by 6-7 PM. At this point, chances for any severe weather
are very low as instability beneath these showers are less than
250 J/kg. That said, there is a very narrow corridor of up to
500 J/kg SB/MLCAPE just ahead of the cold front within the dry
slot area. Some attempts have been made for showers to form
within this corridor, though they have struggled immensely.
Anything along this corridor would be the only chance for
further severe weather before the front exits between 6-7 PM.
But even then, the chance is quite minuscule.


Wind gusts up to 25-35 mph to persist into the evening:

15-20 mph winds have begun to shift to southwesterly as the
front has been moving through the area. These winds will settle
out of the west-northwest by 6 PM to midnight, diminishing to
10-15 mph as they do. During the rest of our daylight hours,
gusts up to 25-35 mph are possible, especially within the narrow
wedge of mostly clear skies currently over the Highway 65
corridor where greater mixing has resulted in observed gusts up
to 35 mph at the Springfield ASOS.


15-30% chance for waves of light drizzle through tonight:

As previously mentioned, low-level clouds within the comma-head
will overspread the area this evening and through tonight.
Forecast soundings depicting saturated boundary layers capped by
a dry inversion limiting any cloud ice, paired with waves of
omega and upslope flow on the NW side of the Plateau should add
in light drizzle production through tonight (15-30% chance). The
cloud cover and moisture will keep low temperatures mild in the
middle 40s to lower 50s.


Dry and seasonable weather on Wednesday before next system:

The low-level clouds should mix out and dissipate by mid-day or
early afternoon Wednesday, making way for clear skies. Due to
some mild cold air advection and clouds for half of the day,
highs are expected to be a bit cooler, but more seasonable, in
the upper 50s to middle 60s Wednesday, and dropping into the
middle 30s to lower 40s Wednesday night, which may bring some
patchy frost potential in low-lying, protected areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 300 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

High confidence in less than a half inch of rain on Thursday:

The upper-level low currently entering the west coast is
forecast to eject into the central Plains on Thursday. Lift and
a diffuse cold front associated with the wave will bring 20-50%
chances of rain to the area. Any rain appears to be light in
nature as any appreciable moisture is forecast to be locked in
the Gulf by the cold front moving through today. Every LREF
cluster keeps mean totals below a quarter inch. 90% of models
depict widespread totals less than half an inch.


Dry and seasonable weather through the weekend:

After Thursday`s wave, yet another upper-level trough is
forecast to move through during the weekend. With the resulting
jet stream just south of the area, and the trough axis only
giving a glancing blow to our region, temperatures are expected
to stay seasonable. Highs are forecast to be in the middle 50s
to middle 60s Friday through Sunday, with lows in the lower 30s
to lower 40s. The lower 30s are expected to be in the eastern
Ozarks, largely keeping areas west of Highway 63 above freezing.


A warm-up to above normal temperatures looks likely next week:

After the series of waves, ensembles are in fairly good
agreement on ridging to take hold of the central and west CONUS
going into next week. This will bring another warm up to above
normal temperatures with highs reaching the 70s by Tuesday. NBM
interquartile spreads keep temperatures in the 70s through at
least the 12th, and the CPC agrees with their forecast for
November 11-16 showing a 60-70% chance for above normal
temperatures.

Since forecast lows are currently supposed to stay above
freezing for the Springfield area and many other areas across
the CWA, this technically means the growing season is forecast
to last into mid-November. For some context, September was our
warmest on record. October was our second warmest on record. And
above normal temperatures in November could keep these top
warmest months going. Furthermore, MRCC data shows that Greene
County`s latest first freeze date on record is November 12th.
If the warm temperatures indeed pan out, we could set a new
latest first freeze date. Even furthermore, Greene County`s
earliest last freeze date is March 12th. This year, our last
freeze was March 18th. Therefore, if the warm temperatures pan
out, we could be looking at a record long "growing season" this
year. Though it has been a bit too dry to grow much of anything
lately.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1100 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

A system is gradually clearing the area overnight, with
lingering MVFR ceilings around 1500 feet. A few instances of IFR
may occur within areas of drizzle, with reduced visibilities
around 2 to 4 miles, in addition to ceilings around 900 feet.
Light areas of drizzle dissipate towards 12Z on Wednesday
morning.

Westerly winds persist through the period, with occasional
gusts up to 20 knots at KJLN and KSGF.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Price
LONG TERM...Price
AVIATION...Perez