540
FXUS63 KSGF 171702
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1202 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Summer-like temperatures with highs in the 80s and lows in the
  60s to around 70 through the weekend. Occasional wind gusts of
  25-40mph this afternoon.

- Slight risk for severe thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday. All
  hazards will be possible with damaging winds the most likely
  hazard. A few separate rounds of storms are possible each day.

- Additional rainfall chances (20-30%) mid to late week along
  with cooler temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 344 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

A look at the region`s IR and water vapor imagery and regional radar
shows an active pattern with showers and storms impacting western
Nebraska into northern Missouri and southern Iowa. This activity was
occurring along a warm front across that area. These storms are
forecast to remain north of the Ozarks this morning and through
today. Surface low pressure in southeastern Colorado is anchoring
the western end of the front under an upper level southwesterly flow
pattern. Thanks to strong warm air and moisture advection from the
southwesterly flow, a few locations along and west of I-49 may not
cool out of the lower 70s this morning.

Synoptic and CAMS models keep a mid level ridge over the area
through this morning and into the early evening hours. A strong low
level jet (50-60kts) is forecast to move over the area tonight
across Kansas and Oklahoma and nose into northwest Missouri. A
strong upper level shortwave trough will deepen and move across the
plains towards the region today with strengthening low pressure
across southwest Kansas. There will be limited forcing during the
day across the Ozarks however, which should keep the area dry
through today. It will be warm and windy as the surface pressure
gradient increases through the day in response to the approaching
surface low in the Plains. Gusty south winds up to 35 mph are likely
as a result. While cloud cover is expected to increase into this
afternoon, daytime heating should still be capable of producing
afternoon highs in the middle to potentially upper 80s. See climate
section below for details on daily record highs that could be
challenged.

Farther west in the central and north-central Plains, widespread
severe weather is expected through most of the day. As mentioned,
this will stay north and west of the Ozarks until late tonight.
Discrete storms in the Plains are expected to congeal into a line or
several line segments before moving through southern Missouri,
bringing primarily a damaging wind threat that drives the Marginal
severe risk from SPC for today. There seems to be some disagreement
among the CAMs regarding the exact behavior of the line as it
approaches, with some bringing storms much farther south (and a bit
earlier) than others. Some models even favor a few storms lifting
northeast out of Oklahoma ahead of the main line. Look for storms to
move in near and after midnight, quickly weakening and lifting
northeast as they move east of Highway 65.

Strong synoptic energy pushes closer to the area on Monday along
with a low-level jet core. While the primary frontal energy lags
behind until late Monday night, plenty of buoyancy, support from the
jet, steep lapse rates, high moisture etc. could allow for scattered
pre-frontal thunderstorm development throughout the day, but weak
shear would limit their ability to become severe. A severe
thunderstorm or two during the afternoon is possible, but unlikely.

Severe storms begin to fire through central Kansas mid-afternoon,
where an SPC Moderate risk is in place for all hazards. These storms
are once again expected to congeal into a line that moves into the
Ozarks late Monday night, perhaps around 8-10 p.m. We are mostly outlined
in a Slight risk for the hazards this line will pose, which is
technically all, but with the storm mode, damaging winds will be
most likely. QLCS-type tornado potential will need to be
monitored. The far northwest corner of Bourbon county is
clipped by the Enhanced risk, as severity is expected to
decrease as the storms propagate to the southeast but will
maximize in the northwest corners of our area.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 344 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

While there is a Slight risk for severe thunderstorms Tuesday, there
are many conditions that must be met for it to be realized. It is
contingent on the speed of the front, the location of lift, and the
subsequent location of convective initiation. Some of the longer-
term CAMs depict discrete cells initiating along a southwest-to-
northeast axis bisecting the state before moving off to the
southeast. CAMs are not very reliable at these forecast hours,
though they do depict possible scenarios. The front does appear to
be more progressive than originally thought, especially once flow
begins to pivot more westerly Tuesday, which will help to quell the
risk for flash flooding along with the general lack of precipitation
in the area as of late.

Additional Rain Chances Mid/Late Week: Latest ensemble data suggests
that the overall upper level pattern does not change much as the
area remains in the west/southwest upper level flow pattern. The
front that moves through Tuesday will likely lift back into the area
and will serve as a focus for additional chances for showers and
storms. While chances are currently only 20-30 percent, these could
increase in future updates. The additional precip chances do look to
suppress temps back down into the 70s for highs versus the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

A broken cloud deck around 3500ft will continue through the
afternoon hours. Some brief MVFR ceilings may occur but should
not be widespread or prolonged. There is a 20 percent chance of
a shower or storm this afternoon at SGF and BBG however
confidence is too low to include at this time. Winds will remain
gusty out of the south this afternoon with speeds around 20kts
and gusts to 30kts, especially at JLN. Winds will decrease
overnight and then increase again on Monday. Low level wind
shear is likely tonight at JLN and SGF. Considerable
uncertainty exists tomorrow with respect to thunderstorm
chances. Currently confidence is too low to include any morning
chances.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 132 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Record High Temperatures:

May 17:
KSGF: 88/2001
KJLN: 89/2001
KVIH: 92/1996
KUNO: 89/1980

May 18:
KSGF: 88/1962
KJLN: 90/1987
KVIH: 88/1996
KUNO: 89/2001


Record Warmest Low Temperatures:

May 17:
KSGF: 69/1974
KJLN: 75/1974
KUNO: 68/2017
KVIH: 68/2017

May 18:
KSGF: 68/1996
KJLN: 74/1996
KUNO: 66/2017
KVIH: 70/1996

May 19:
KSGF: 69/2013
KJLN: 74/1996
KUNO: 70/1996
KVIH: 70/1996

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch/Nelson
LONG TERM...Burchfield/Nelson
AVIATION...Burchfield
CLIMATE...Burchfield