634
FXUS63 KSGF 011205
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
605 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Drizzle and lowered visibilities will stick around through the
  late morning into the early afternoon hours.

- 15-25 mph southerly winds with gusts up to 35 mph are expected
  on Monday. The strongest winds will generally occur along and
  west of Highway 65.

- 90+% chance for rain to move across the area late Monday into
  Tuesday. Monitoring a low-end potential for severe weather
  with this system, mostly along and west of I-49.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 301 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

The heavier rain showers are currently over central MO and the
eastern Ozarks and will continue to push northeast for the rest
of the morning. Most of the area saw rain showers yesterday with
some places getting up to 0.5". Drizzle has been occurring over
the last few hours over western MO early this morning. There`s
still plenty of lift and moisture hanging around behind the main
rain shield to produce drizzle awhile longer. Expect drizzle to
continue through the late morning/early afternoon as the
shortwave continues to push east. Visibilities may be
temporarily reduced in the heavier patches of drizzle. Skies
today will be cloudy with highs only reaching the mid to upper
60s, which is only a few more degrees than where they are now.
Winds will be out of the southeast through the day and stay near
10 mph or less. Skies will remain cloudy overnight with lows
settling into the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 301 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

We`ll start to feel the impacts of the incoming trough on Monday
as southeasterly winds become gusty near 30-35 mph by late
morning with the strongest gusts along and west of Highway 65.
Rain chances begin to increase overnight Monday into Tuesday
(50-90%).

There is still a Marginal to Slight risk of severe weather
possible for areas along and west of I-49 with the Slight being
further west. Timing for severe weather is Monday afternoon/
evening. Right now, the best severe risk still appears to be
over central KS, with the western CWA getting clipped. This is
likely due to the base of the trough going through that area
before the trough becomes elongated as it moves over us due to
another incoming mid-level trough over the Great Lakes region.
All modes of severe weather are possible with this system as
supercells will initiate first just to our west. By the time it
gets to our area, guidance is showing the convection forming a
line of storms as it pushes through. This storm mode would favor
more of a QLCS than supercells. Though, the instability is
still a bit lacking, the wind shear and SRH will be conducive
for severe weather. If storms stay severe as they enter our CWA,
they will likely occur west of I-49 with storms becoming less
severe as they push further east into a less conducive
environment. KS and OK may see the majority of the severe
weather, with us seeing some rumbles of thunder and beneficial
rainfall of 1 to 2 inches through Tuesday. Rain will taper off
by Tuesday morning.

The low pressure system that moves through at the beginning of
the week will drop our temperatures, but only by about 10
degrees. Though, it will bring them closer to average for this
time of year with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s for the
rest of the week. Another low pressure system will bring low-end
rain chances by mid-week (15-20%).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 552 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

IFR/LIFR ceilings and drizzle will stick around for most of the
morning until they lift into MVFR/VFR later this afternoon.
Visibilities will be less than 10 SM through 15z as well. Winds
will be at 10 knots or less out of the south-southeast through
the period. Patchy fog returns tonight after 00z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Soria
LONG TERM...Soria
AVIATION...Soria