459
FXUS63 KSGF 152216
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
516 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect for the entire area
  through Sunday evening. Daily heat index values around 105 to
  110 will continue to occur during the afternoon and early
  evening hours. Minimal overnight relief with lows in the
  middle 70s to around 80.

- There is a Marginal (1 out of 5) Severe Thunderstorm Risk
  Sunday afternoon and evening for portions of the area.
  Damaging wind gusts are the main risk along with locally heavy
  rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 125 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Heat persist today very similar to the last couple of day,
including the extreme heat warning.

For Sunday, a shortwave and cold front look to move into the
area Sunday afternoon and evening, sparking thunderstorms with a
marginal severe risk. HREF ensemble mean SBCAPE of 2,000-3,000
J/kg is shown, along with 0-6km bulk shear of 20-25 kts. Mainly
looking at a 60 mph wind threat in small clusters of storms.
Location for severe storms (and greater convective coverage in
general) will be over the central and eastern CWA (see SPC
outlook).

Otherwise, Sunday will be a little cooler over the far northern
CWA with highs in the low to mid 90s and max heat index around
100. The rest of the area will be similar to today and the last
couple of days, until local thunderstorms/outflow develops.

Isolated to scattered convection may linger through Sunday
night, but is not expected to be strong overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 125 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Northeasterly flow will knock temperatures down on Monday with
highs in the mid 80s (max heat index around 90) northeast to
the mid 90s (max heat index around 100) southwest). However,
convection over the southern CWA may lead to changes in these
temperature expectations.

Warmer Tuesday with the return of southerly flow. Look for highs
in the low 90s to around 100 (warmest southwest) with max heat
index values in the upper 90s to mid 100s. Wednesday may be a
couple degrees warmer. However, NBM spread is pretty high so
expect changes to these forecasts.

Look for a 30-40% chance of showers and storms Wednesday night
as a cold front passes through, followed by potentially cooler
weather late week. Models show a temperature gradient just to
the southwest, so the forecast may change substantially with
small shifts in guidance, but we are currently shown by ensemble
means to be on the "cold" side of the gradient. This puts the
highs in the mid 80s northeast to the mid 90s southwest in the
official forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 513 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

VFR conditions through Sunday morning. Southerly winds will
shift to the north during the afternoon as a cold front moves
through the area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
develop across southern Missouri after 20Z, which may bring
temporary IFR or lower visibilities to the terminals through the
end of the TAF period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Didio