123
FXUS63 KSGF 021111
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
611 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy smoke today, especially north of the Interstate 44
  corridor.

- Temperatures will be 5 to 15 degrees below climatological
  normals through the weekend.

- Slow warming trend next week with temperatures returning to
  slightly above normal values by next Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 201 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

West-northwest flow aloft remains in place this morning with an
upper-level ridge centered over the Desert Southwest. With
surface high pressure over the Great Lakes in control of the
regions weather and easterly surface winds, dry weather is
expected across the Missouri Ozarks and southeast Kansas through
tonight. Thanks to the dry air, morning lows in the middle 50s
to lower 60s will start the day. The coolest readings will be in
the valleys of the eastern Ozarks.

Limited cloud cover is expected today and despite the ample
sunshine, afternoon highs will only climb into the upper 70s to
middle 80s.

One thing that the region may still see the influence of is
smoke from western U.S. and Canadian wildfires through the day.
The HRRR does show some reductions to visibilities may linger
into tonight, especially north of the Interstate 44 corridor.

Temperatures tonight are forecast to be unseasonably cool as a
surface ridge moves across the region and allows for efficient
radiational cooling. NBM interquartile ranges continue to support
lows in the lower to middle 50s across the eastern Ozarks. Lows
will be close to 60 degrees along the Interstate 49 corridor.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 201 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Monday through Wednesday:

Long wave charts and ensemble clusters show a pattern that will
allow for a warming trend with temperatures returning to near-
seasonal values by Tuesday and Wednesday. This will bring the
return of highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s with lows in the
middle to upper 60s over most areas. Heat indices be limited
however as dew points remain in the 60s. Nevertheless, areas
along and west of the Interstate 49 corridor will see indices
back into the upper 90s by Wednesday.

Precipitation chances should be rather low (<15%) through
midweek. Will watch MCS activity which is expected to occur in
the Plains Sunday night into Monday morning. It may be possible
(5-15%) that convection makes it far enough east that areas
along and west of the I-49 corridor would see some rainfall.

An alternate scenario that may occur would be afternoon pop-up
storms across the eastern Ozarks during peak heating. This would
mainly be confined to locations along and east of the Highway
63 corridor. We have PoPs running in the 15-25% range for this
scenario, with the highest PoPs Tuesday afternoon.

Late Next Week:

Synoptic models show the southwestern U.S. ridge expanding
northeast and building into the area. Cluster analysis continues
to show strong agreement in this pattern. Thus, confidence
remains high (>80%) that the warming trend will continue.

NBM deterministic highs are generally running in the lower to
middle 90s. Dew points towards the end of next week may edge
back towards the upper 60s and lower 70s. The synoptic setup
however, doesn`t currently support the oppressive values like
we saw over many areas during our recent heat wave. this should
keep afternoon heat indices will in the 94 to 104 range over
the vast majority of the area.

Precipitation chances from Wednesday through Friday are less
than 10% thanks to the building upper-level ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 606 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

The Ozarks remains on the southern periphery of a broad area of
surface high pressure centered over the Great Lakes region. This
will keep generally easterly to light and variable winds in
place over the next 24 hours. Flow aloft on the western edge of
the high was brining smoke from the western CONUS and Canada
producing smoke mainly for the KJLN aerodrome. This MVFR to low
end VFR conditions, mainly limits to visibility, will improve
shortly after sunrise as the air begins to mix out. The
remainder of the forecast looks to be VFR with no impacts
forecast.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Hatch