385
FXUS63 KSGF 012301
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
601 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Intermittent showers and an isolated thunderstorm this
  afternoon, evening and again Tuesday. Highest chances west and
  south of Springfield.

- Higher chance for showers and thunderstorms (50-70%) along and
  north of Interstate 44 Wednesday night.

- Strong cold front moves through Wednesday night bringing
  cooler than normal temperatures for Thursday and perhaps into
  the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper
air analysis continues to show a slow moving shortwave dropping
south through northeast Kansas. Sufficient moisture and lift
ahead of this feature has allowed for a persistent area of light
to moderate rain across southeast Kansas and western Missouri,
primarily west of Highway 65. Clouds and precip have kept temps
in the upper 60s there. Precip has struggled to make it east of
Highway 65 so far with sunshine allowing for temps to reach the
upper 70s to lower 80s there.

Through Tonight: The shortwave will slide south towards the area
this evening and we should continue to see additional showers
develop, especially west of Highway 65. There is forecast to be
around 500j/kg of MU CAPE late this afternoon and evening which
may allow for an isolated thunderstorm across southeast Kansas.
Additional light showers will then remain possible overnight
across the entire area as the shortwave moves through.

Tuesday: While the bulk of the lift will be south of the area,
locations south of Interstate 44 will again see chances for
light rain showers. Chances/coverage looks to be less than
today with HREF paintball plots just not showing much coverage.
Highs in the upper 70s to around 80 look reasonable.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Wednesday through Thursday: Ensembles suggest that a much
stronger wave will drop down into the northern plains on
Wednesday. This will force a cold front south towards the area,
arriving in northwest Missouri and northern Kansas in the
late afternoon and evening. Before this front arrives, ample
heating will allow for highs in the middle 80s.

Most guidance does show showers and thunderstorms developing
along the front Wednesday evening northwest of the area and
then moving in late evening through the overnight hours. This
system will have a 40-60kt 500mb jet nosing into the area.
Currently the greatest CAPE/Shear combo (CAPE over 500j/kg and
0-6km shear over 30kts) is located across southeast Kansas and
western Missouri. This will be the area to watch for some stronger
storms Wednesday night and SPC does have a marginal severe risk.
The loss of daytime heating will be the limiting factor as the
storms move further southeast through the area. We will
continue to monitor the timing trends of the cold front. Precip
chances have increased into the 50-70% range along and north of
I-44 with this frontal passage. The front looks fairly
progressive which would limit precip amounts.

Behind the front, mean 850mb temps of 10-15C and surface high
pressure overhead will likely yield highs in the low to mid
70s on Thursday.

Friday through Sunday: Ensembles do show some variance with the
upper trough over the great lakes this weekend with some
question as to how far south the front pushes through Arkansas.
This has lead to some low precip chances (less than 20%) at
times. We would expect additional changes to the precip
forecasts as we move through the week. The lack
of widespread rainfall would likely aggravate the ongoing
drought across portions of the area. Current NBM forecasts
show highs either in the low 70s or low 80s, which emphasizes
the uncertainty in the low level airmass/frontal placement.
However even low 80s will be below average for early September.
If the colder airmass prevails then we could see lows in the
40s Sat and Sun mornings across the northeastern CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 559 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

For the 00z TAFS, shortwave energy continues to bring some mid
level cloud cover and some light rain showers to the area.
Soundings continue to show a very dry low level below the cloud
layer, limiting the precipitation. This trend will likely
continue tonight into Tuesday as the shortwave moves through.
VFR conditions are expected through the period with a light and
variable wind.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025


Record Low Temperatures:

September 6:
KVIH: 44/1956

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Lindenberg
CLIMATE...Burchfield