327
FXUS63 KSGF 130840
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
240 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Geomagnetic Storm Watch remains in effect. Many areas could
  see the Northern Lights (Aurora Broils) tonight. Some impacts
  may occur to GPS and communications.

- Above average temperatures in the 60s and 70s expected
  through Saturday (10 to 20 degrees above average). Record high
  temperatures are in jeopardy Friday and Saturday.

- Though details are uncertain, 30-40% chances for rain are in
  the forecast for next Monday into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 109 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

The Ozarks remained under the influence of surface ridging and
high pressure this morning under northwesterly upper level flow.
The pattern was providing generally clear skies and light winds
for the area which will continue into today. This will allow for
another nice day across the Ozarks with light winds and ample
sunshine with afternoon highs climbing into the lower 70s again
today.

By the the afternoon, the surface high will will have move east
of the Mississippi River being replaced by south to southwesterly
surface and middle level flow. The southerly winds will allow
for additional warm air and moisture advection through tonight
and into Friday. Looking at the Ensemble and HREF output for
winds and Td`s for tonight through Friday A decent amount of
moisture is expected to advect into the region, especially from
850mb to the surface. With surface high pressure over southern
Louisiana tonight, winds into the Ozarks will be southerly and
right off the Gulf. Probabilities have greater than a 90 percent
chance for Td`s to be in the 50-55 degree range by Friday
morning.

In addition to increasing moisture, the combination of a
tightening surface pressure gradient and a 25-35kn LLJ will
bring breezy southerly winds with gusts from 25 to 35 mph at
times (35-55% chances). Even if those higher gusts aren`t
realized, winds will be breezy. The Boston Mountains in NW
Arkansas may slow things a bit, but would be overcome eventually
into the day Friday.

With the strong warm air advection, plenty of sunshine,
increasing moisture and southerly winds, afternoon highs will
climb into the middle, in some areas, to upper 70s Friday
afternoon. This will be very near record highs for Friday. (see
Climate section below)

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 109 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

The pattern that develops on Friday will remain and likely be
stronger for Saturday with continued warm air and moisture
advection into the region. This will allow for warm and near
record breaking high temperatures to again be reached as an
upper level ridge expands over the central CONUS. Current
indications support going near the 90th percentile from the
probabilistic ensemble output which indicated afternoon highs
in the middle to upper 70s. Some locations my event see highs
around the 80 degree mark. This will depend on any cloud cover
however.

Heading into Sunday and the beginning of next week is where
models begin to differ in solutions for the region. An upper
level low off California coast by Saturday remains problematic
for the ensembles and synoptic models alike. Ensemble analysis
shows differences in timing, track and strength as the low make
its way ashore. Sunday looks fairly nice with only partly
cloudy skies and highs in the 60 to 70 degree range, thanks to
Canadian high pressure sliding into the plains in advance of
the low in the west.

Trends in the models have been slower and weaker wave as it
lifts into the northern Rockies towards the northern plains.
Until the system can be sampled by upper air observations
however, chances in the track, timing and strength will remain
possible. If the current ensembles are correct with the system,
there would be a 30-40% chance for rain Monday when the system
finally moves into the Central Plains.

This active pattern may continue as noted by the CPC forecast
for the 18th through the 26th with outlooks showing a slight
lean in the probabilities towards a warmer and wetter pattern.
While longer range forecasts for 6 to 14 days out have some
skill, there can and often are changes in this time scale. With
that said, CPC hazards outlook has the area in a slight to
moderate risk (20-60% chance) of heavy precipitation centered
around the middle of next week (Nov 20). To boil this down, the
second half of November looks like it may have the potential
to be more active which may help the ongoing drought across the
Ozarks.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1107 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

A ridge of high pressure over the Ozarks will allow for Light
surface winds and clear skies. Increasing middle and high clouds
will begin to move over the region after sunrise but VFR flight
conditions are expected.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 200 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

For context, average high temps for middle November are in the
57-60 degree range.

Record High Temperatures:

November 14:
KSGF: 78/1973
KJLN: 79/1964
KVIH: 75/1960
KUNO: 79/1999

November 15:
KSGF: 78/1964
KJLN: 77/1950
KVIH: 79/1955

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Hatch
CLIMATE...Burchfield