954
FXUS63 KSGF 172322
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
522 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty winds and dry conditions will continue elevated fire
  weather conditions this afternoon into the early evening.

- Scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon over
  central MO. Some of these storms may produce severe hail and
  wind gusts over 60 mph. Additional scattered storms will be
  possible late tonight.

- Well above normal to record high temperatures will be possible
  on Tuesday.

- Widespread moderate to heavy rain will then occur at times
  from late Wednesday into Friday as showers and thunderstorms
  move across the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 131 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Current conditions and analysis: A couple of areas of upper
level low pressure were analyzed with the closest one over the
central high plains. The second was entering northern and
central California. A low level jet was located over the area
and we`re seeing some gusty winds across the area. The strongest
winds were at SGF where terrain was bumping the surface winds up
much higher than surrounding sites. Our highest wind gusts at
the airport was 45 mph so far. Elsewhere, gusts were in the 20
to 30 mph range. Humidity levels were in the 20s and 30s in the
eastern Ozarks and the 30s and 40s in the west. This combined
with the gusty winds was producing some elevated and locally
significant fire weather conditions. Some strong to severe
storms have developed late this morning into the early
afternoon so far in an area of strong warm air advection with
some MU CAPES of 500-1000 j/kg. We are mainly looking at a large
hail potential with these storms this afternoon. By this
evening, these storms should move off to the northeast of the
forecast area.

Tonight:
The upper low over the high plains will shift east into the
central plains tonight and Iowa/Northern Missouri by 12z. Upper
level jet energy along with a continued low level jet,
increasing moisture and instability will bring additional
chances of scattered thunderstorms to the area late tonight into
early Tuesday morning. Again, hail would be the main severe
weather risk. Low level moisture will be on the increase and
would could see some low stratus/drizzle develop overnight into
Tuesday morning as well.

Tuesday:
A warm front will push through tonight and we`ll continue to
advect warmer air into the area during the day ahead of the
trailing cold front. The morning convection should exit to the
east fairly early. We are showing around 15 deg C at 850mb
during the day Tuesday. Local climate study is suggesting a
range of mid to upper 70s with a mostly cloudy or overcast
condition and upper 70s to mid 80s for partly cloudy or sunny
conditions. We may start the day out with some stratus and will
need to erode that. Going in between puts us in the goalposts
for the NBM 25th-75th percentile which looks reasonable. This
will put some highs in jeopardy of record breaking highs. (see
climate section for details).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 131 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Heavy rain and thunderstorm potential late Wednesday into
Friday: Behind this first system, we get into a southwest flow
aloft ahead of the 2nd low which will be starting to push east
out of California into Nevada and Arizona. By late Wednesday,
we`ll start to get a low level jet develop over the are along
with upper level jet energy east of the main low. Pacific
moisture will increase aloft with the southwest flow and Gulf
moisture will increase in the lower levels with a strong south
to southwest flow. Could start to see showers develop over the
area Wednesday evening. Stronger divergence aloft occurs over
the area as the upper low approaches from the west on Thursday
with weak instability over the area as well. Rain should become
more widespread on Thursday and could be heavy at times with
ensemble mean PW values of 1.3" to 1.5" which is well above the
90th percentile for this time of year. The main upper wave looks
like it pushes through late Friday with drier air moving in
behind that. Widespread rainfall amounts of an inch and a half
to 2.5 inches will be possible with localized higher amounts.
Here are some probabilistic amounts through Sat 12z:

              >0.5"  >1.0"   >1.5"    >2.0"
Springfield    90%    60%     27%      12%
Joplin         88%    56%     25%      13%
West Plains    94%    75%     48%      26%
Nevada         81%    48%     21%       8%
Branson        93%    73%     46%      23%
Rolla          92%    77%     50%      30%

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 520 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period.
Southeasterly to southerly winds will continue to gust between
25-30kts primarily at KSGF and KJLN through tonight before
becoming westerly/northwesterly towards the end of the period.
There may be a few hours where winds slightly diminish
overnight, however the gusty conditions are expected to continue
through Tuesday evening before becoming light once again after
the end of the TAF period.

There`s a chance for some isolated showers primarily between
04Z-11Z later this evening/tonight, however confidence in
coverage and intensity is too low to include in anything other
than a PROB30 group for now. If these go over the terminals, a
brief reduction in ceilings/visibilities could lower the flight
category to MVFR. Otherwise, LLWS will be prominent at all TAF
sites before reducing by 12Z.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 320 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

For context, average high temps for middle
November are in the 55-59 degree range.



Tuesday November 18:

Record High Temperatures:             Forecast:

KSGF: 78/1930                             76
KJLN: 76/1999                             74
KVIH: 74/1981                             75
KUNO: 74/2017                             78

November 19:
KJLN: 75/1950                             70

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Melto
CLIMATE...Wise