450
FXUS63 KSGF 251122
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
622 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near average temperatures the next few days. Isolated to
  scattered showers and possibly some thunder this weekend.
  Highest rain chances west of Highway 65. Rainfall amounts
  generally less than 0.25 inches, but some areas may stay dry.

- A more widespread round of showers and thunderstorms (50-70%
  chance) are possible next week, with the greatest chance of
  occurrence Tuesday into Wednesday. Severe weather and
  flooding potential is currently very low, but will need
  monitoring. Confidence is limited at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Shortwave energy and broad WAA/isentropic ascent may result in a
few showers and possibly some thunder today and tonight, mainly
across SE KS and west-central MO where a 30% chance is in the
forecast. Even where rain is experienced, amounts will be
minimal.

Otherwise look for highs in the mid 70s to low 80s today.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Weekend conditions: Shortwave energy will continue to bring
isolated to scattered showers and possibly some thunderstorms
through the weekend, with the greatest chances of 50-70% being
west of Highway 65 Saturday night. Elsewhere, chances range from
10-40% (lowest over south-central Missouri). NBM 48 hour QPF
probabilities for >= 0.1" ranges from < 15% over south-central
MO to 40% long I-44 to 60-80% over southeast KS and west-central
MO. Some areas may stay dry. High temperatures in the mid 70s
to mid 80s are expected.

Next system Tuesday into the middle of next week: Continuing to
see models shift in how they handle a system that may impact the
area. Models are now showing a deeper system, generally closing
that off over the SW CONUS while merging with remnants of
Hurricane Polo. SW closed lows are notoriously poorly handled by
models, which is made even worse by merging with the Hurricane.
This leads to significant differences in timing, strength,
track, and structure throughout the model spectrum. This leads
to low confidence. Will continue monitoring for heavy rainfall
and severe threats with this system, both of which are low at
this time. Confidence may not increase into early next week as
the system becomes more mature.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 622 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

VFR conditions and light winds will persist through the TAF
period. A few sprinkles or brief light showers are possible
today, and tonight, mainly at KJLN and KSGF. No significant
impacts are expected.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Titus