267
FXUS63 KSGF 081832
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
132 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Extreme Heat Watch along a corridor roughly from the Joplin to
  the Lake of the Ozarks region Sunday through Wednesday. Heat
  indices near/around 105 are expected on a daily basis in this
  area. Heat indicies around 100 are expected elsewhere early
  next week.

- Rain chances return Wednesday through Friday (30-50%),
  especially north of Interstate 44.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 132 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Synoptic Overview:

A longwave trough axis was centered over the Great Lakes region
this afternoon with an attendant quasi-stationary front draped
across northern Missouri. A secondary front and cloud shield
were situated across southeast Missouri--remnants of yesterday`s
convection. Meanwhile, a broad upper-level ridge across the
western CONUS was expanding eastward, resulting in height rises
and mostly clear skies across southeast Kansas and southwest
Missouri.

Warm and Dry Today:

Height rises and warm air advection will allow temperatures to
climb into the mid 90s across extreme southwest Missouri and
southeast Kansas this afternoon, with slightly cooler
temperatures elsewhere. Thermo profiles suggest an environment
ripe for mixing; that said, light winds will keep any drying
effect small. As such, dew points are about 1-3 degrees lower
than the NBM was suggesting yesterday atop the plateau, which
has knocked down maximum expected heat indices a touch for these
locations. Otherwise, no precipitation will occur today.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 132 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Hot Sunday through Wednesday:

Temperatures will increase further on Sunday and into the work
week as the aforementioned ridge expands east. In fact,
temperatures may approach the 100 degree mark across extreme
southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas each day. There is
greater uncertainty in the dew point forecast, however. Stronger
winds will support better mixing next week compared to today,
which may act to lower dew points and, ultimately, maximum
afternoon heat indices by a few degrees, particularly atop the
plateau. Therefore, the hottest conditions will occur in lower
elevations where mixing is less of a factor. Confidence is
medium to high (40-80% chance) that locations in southwest
Missouri and southeast Kansas will reach at least a 100 deg heat
index tomorrow through Wednesday, resulting in a prolonged heat
risk. Confidence in reaching 105 degrees each day is lower,
however, with the greatest chance north of the plateau where an
Extreme Heat Watch is currently in effect. All this to say that
we have held off on any additional headline issuance with this
package until forecast confidence increases.

Regardless of exact headlines, it will be hot Sunday
through Wednesday, and those with outdoor plans should make
efforts to have cooling and hydration options readily available.
Furthermore, the NWS HeatRisk product depicts increasingly
widespread values in the Major category throughout the week.
This category means that heat affects anyone without effective
cooling and/or adequate hydration, and impacts are likely in
some health systems, heat-sensitive industries, and
infrastructure.

Rain Chances Mid to Late Week:

Global ensembles depict the upper-level height pattern
flattening into more of a zonal flow by Wednesday or even
digging into a trough across the Midwest and eastern CONUS. The
differences and details will in fact matter when it comes to
the sensible weather, but at the very least, this shift will
open the door to rain chances for the latter half of the week.
Indeed, precipitation chances increase to 30-50% each day
beginning late Wednesday. The highest chances are across central
Missouri where synoptic-scale ascent will be the greatest. At
the same time, confidence in the temperature forecast decreases.
NBM interquartile temperature spreads increase from 3 degrees on
Wednesday to 10 degrees on Friday, which exemplifies this
increasing uncertainty nicely.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1135 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Winds will prevail out of
the south, generally remaining less than 10 kt through the
afternoon. May see a slight uptick after dark and into Sunday
with a few gusts up to 17 kt across far southwest Missouri.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for MOZ055>058-066>069-077>080-088-089-093-094-
     101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Didio
LONG TERM...Didio
AVIATION...Didio