444
FXUS63 KSGF 051739
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1239 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated thunderstorms today and Saturday afternoons. More
  widespread rain chances will occur Saturday night and Sunday
  (50-90%). No severe weather expected at this time.

- Monitoring for flash flood potential this weekend, especially
  on Sunday. All of our area is in a Slight Risk (2/4) for
  excessive rainfall on Sunday. A Flood Watch may be needed
  later this weekend.

- Temperature and precipitation favored to be above average for
  next week. Highs will be in the upper 90s with heat indices
  in the lower 100s by the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 244 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

A cold front is draped over the north-central Plains and has
sparked convection just to its south over northern MO. That
convection has been very slow moving which has led to flash
flooding over northern MO. Fortunately, that activity has stayed
further north and won`t impact us. Though, we have another mid-
level trough working its way east over the southern Plains that
will impact parts of southern MO later today. A bit of energy
will eject from the incoming low later this afternoon and bring
a chance (20-30%) for showers and thunderstorms. None of this
activity is expected to be severe and these storms will be very
isolated. If convection does occur, it`ll primarily stay south
of I-44. There are a few CAM solutions that have the convection
that`s currently to our north, moving east throughout the day
and bringing us a low-end chance (15-20%) for showers over
central MO. There will be plenty of moisture in place today
with dewpoints in the 70s, but the lift will be lacking. Perhaps
a few thunderstorms could spark off of an outflow off the main
system, and if they did, they`d mostly be east of Highway 63.

The mid-level trough begins to move northeast by Saturday and
will bring us a much better chance for showers and thunderstorms.
We`ll start to see a few showers and thunderstorms move in ahead
of the trough by late morning/early afternoon. The rain chances
increase as the day goes on and the low moves closer towards us.
Rain chances in the morning/afternoon will be 30-50% with rain
chances after midnight increasing to 40-70%. With the track of
this system, SW MO will have the highest chance to see rain.
Again, no severe weather is expected, but we will have to
monitor for any flash flooding potential.

Today and Saturday will be partly to mostly cloudy due to the
incoming low. Though, it`ll still feel warm and muggy with
dewpoints in the 70s and highs in the mid 80s. Lows will also
feel warm in the mid 60s over the next couple of days.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 244 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

The trough will continue to bring us rain chances for Sunday.
WPC has issued a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall (2/4) for
Sunday. If this trend continues, we may need a Flood Watch later
this weekend due to saturated soils and elevated river levels.
Sunday will likely have widespread rain showers for the late
morning/afternoon hours. There is a 60-95% chance for rain with
a few rumbles of thunder. Some areas may see 2 inches of rain or
more by the end of the weekend. There will be localized higher
amounts that fall especially if any storms train over the same
areas this weekend. Then, to start the week, a shortwave moves
through right after the low pressure system lifts northeast.
This will keep our rain chances elevated through late Monday
with a 30-50% chance for thunderstorms. No severe weather
expected at this time.

High temperatures start to get even warmer as we enter into next
week. Daytime highs will be in the upper 90s by midweek. It
will feel warm and muggy with dewpoints in the mid 70s as well.
Unfortunately, it`s that time of year where we need to start
mentioning heat indices. Heat indices will be in the lower 100s
for most of the area for Tuesday-Thursday. Lows for the long
term period also stay fairly warm in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Low end VFR to high end MVFR ceilings will persist this
afternoon, followed by improving conditions this evening and
tonight. KBBG may see some isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon. 30% chances for showers and MVFR
ceilings then develop Saturday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Soria
LONG TERM...Soria
AVIATION...Titus