905
FXUS63 KSGF 020540
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1240 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High temperatures in the mid to upper 80s (5 to 15 degrees
  above normal) and mainly dry weather expected through the end
  of the week

- While some widely isolated showers will be possible Thursday
  afternoon (5-10% chance), the next main potential for rainfall
  is not expected until early to the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025

An area of surface high pressure and an upper level shortwave
ridge are over the area this afternoon allowing another warm day
with light winds. Highs in the middle to upper 80s are
occurring this afternoon and will occur again on Thursday which
are around 5 to 15 degrees above normal. Lows will also remain
mild with readings in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Thursday afternoon a weak front will move northwest into
portions of the eastern Missouri Ozarks. Instability will
increase some with the heating of the day, but a drier air mass
will be in place in the lower and middle levels of the
atmosphere. A few isolated showers and a few rumbles of thunder
will be possible (10% or less chances) southeast of a
Gainesville to Salem, MO line, but overall coverage will be very
limited as most locations are expected to remain dry.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025

An upper level ridge will build back over the area Friday into
this weekend with above normal and dry conditions continuing.
An upper level shortwave trough will move across the plains this
weekend. Southerly winds will increase with gusts up to around
20 mph at times on Saturday and Sunday. Highs will continue to
warm into the middle 80s through weekend with afternoon
humidity values in the 30 to 40% range. There could be a limited
fire weather risk this weekend as the gusty southerly winds
occur.

The upper level shortwave trough will lift to the northeast
early next week and a front will push south toward the area.
With the better upper level support to the north the front will
likely remain north of the area on Monday keeping much of the
area dry. The front could sag into the area on Tuesday with some
shower and thunderstorm chances into the area. The coverage
could decrease from north to south as the front moves into the
area as the better upper level lift remains north and a drier
air mass will be in place. A few showers may linger into
Wednesday but coverage should be limited.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

VFR conditions to prevail through the entire TAF period with
light 3-8 kt winds generally out of the southeast. Mostly clear
skies are expected, save for a sparse 6-7 kft cu field between
18-00Z. Some minor nuances to the aviation forecast are
discussed below.

Some light mist has been noted in observations and on satellite,
especially in lower lying areas. Therefore, there is a low
(<20%) chance for some brief drops in visibilities, especially
at BBG, between 07-13Z.

Lastly, there is also a low 15% chance for a stray shower or
thunderstorm at BBG between 20-01Z, but there is much higher
confidence in any rain chances staying east of the site.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Price