317
FXUS63 KSGF 122331
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
631 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire danger today with hot, dry, and increasingly
  breezy conditions with southwesterly wind gusts up to 30 mph.

- High confidence in temperatures 15-20 degrees above
  climatological averages tomorrow. Highs in the upper 80s to
  lower 90s will challenge some records.

- Increasing confidence in chances for widespread rainfall late
  Tuesday through Thursday, including a risk for heavy rainfall.

- Pattern change incoming with high temperatures in the 60s
  with lows in the 30s and 40s for Friday and Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 102 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

High pressure is building overhead and will continue to do so
over the next 48 hours. We will challenge record high
temperatures over the next couple of days as we get into the
low to mid 90s which is 20 degrees warmer than normal for this
time of year. Skies have been sunny today but high clouds start
filtering in on Tuesday ahead of our next system. Winds stay out
of the south-southwest during the short term period and will be
gusty at 25-30 mph ahead of the incoming trough. Overnight lows
will be warm with temperatures in the 70s and southerly winds
still breezy around 10 mph.

There are Elevated Fire Danger concerns today with
southwesterly winds gusting to 30 mph and min RH values in the
20 to 30% range. We have dewpoints near the MO/AR border that
have dipped into the mid 40s and dropped the min RH values into
the lower 20% range over that area. We have been able to mix
very well today and its allowed us to really dry out. We are
also still in a D3 drought (extreme drought) across most of the
area. Fires can spread rapidly in these conditions and
uncontrolled fires can pose a risk to life and property. Avoid
activities that cause open flames or sparks. Properly discard of
cigarettes and avoid parking on dry grass and check trailers
for dragging chains. A more thorough Fire Weather section can be
found below.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 102 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

A welcomed pattern change will move through by mid-week due to
the remnants of Hurricane Simon getting ingested into an upper-
level wave. This system will move through the Plains early this
week and bring us a chance by early Wednesday morning. Rain is
forecast to start near sunrise and will continue intermittently
through Thursday evening as a couple of cold fronts move through
the area.

Severe Threat?: Our PWAT values will be near record for this
event from 2.0-2.5" which is normally near 1.67" for this time
of year. This means these rain showers will be efficient
rainfall producers which could lead to nuisance flooding if rain
showers train over the same area. There is a chance for a
strong thunderstorm or two on Wednesday by the late
morning/early afternoon hours. Any strong to severe storms that
occur will be over a very localized area and will only last for
a short amount of time. Right now, SPC has a Marginal Risk
(1/5) for severe weather issued for Wednesday. This area goes as
far west as Pittsburg, KS, down to the MO/AR border, as far
north as Stockton/Lebanon and as far east as Mountain Grove.
There will be a small window of time where 0-6km bulk shear will
be near 35 kts and MUCAPE of ~2500 J/kg in an uncapped
environment just ahead of the cold front. Though, this favorable
environment won`t last long as the environment quickly becomes
stable as the first front moves through. It`s important to note
that this severe risk is highly conditional due to how
overworked the atmosphere will be from the rain that will have
occurred earlier in the morning. If the atmosphere can`t
recover, we`ll just see rain and miss out on the strong/severe
storms. For this reason, we are not completely sold on the idea
that we`ll have severe weather on Wednesday.

Rainfall Amounts: As for rainfall totals, the amounts continue
to decrease with every forecast update. Now, the range is 0.5-3"
across the area. There is a sharp gradient of rainfall amounts
with the lower amounts (0.5-1.5") occurring southeast of I-44
and the higher amounts (1.75-3") northwest of the interstate.
Unfortunately, this sharp cut-off in rainfall amounts may occur
over Greene county.

Temperatures: As for temperatures for the rest of the week,
highs will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s for Wednesday and
Thursday. By Friday, we`ll see a change in temperatures with
highs only in the lower 60s and lows getting down into the mid
30s to upper 40s. It`ll feel chilly compared to the mid 90s
we`ll be experiencing earlier this week. High pressure moves in
this weekend with another day of perfect fall weather on
Saturday with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s and Sunday a
bit warmer with highs in the 70s and lows in the upper 40s and
lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Confidence is high that VFR conditions will prevail through the
TAF period with increasing mid level clouds during the day
Tuesday. Winds will decrease this evening with an increasing in
speed and gusts again on Tuesday morning and afternoon. Low
level wind shear is likely at SGF and JLN overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

A prolonged period with substantial rainfall deficits from late
Summer and into the Fall has contributed to worsening drought
conditions across southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas. The
latest Drought Monitor valid Oct 6 showed a continued expansion
of the D3 (Extreme Drought) and an overall categorical
degradation across the fire weather forecast area. Resultant
fuel moisture indices show similar trends. Woody FM readings
between 60-70 and Herb FM values of 30-60 suggest these fuels
are cured or very dry. Combined, these produce a Growing Season
Index (GSI) of 0.1 to 0.3, indicating fuel dormancy.
Furthermore, KBDI values greater than 600 (and in some cases
greater than 700) also suggest fuels are near or completely
cured.

While Red Flag Warning (RFW) conditions are not forecast to be
met in the next seven days, we will officially begin our fire
weather season messaging, and headlines will be issued should
RFW criteria be forecast from this point onward.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

October 12:
KSGF: 91/2024
KJLN: 93/2024
KVIH: 90/2024
KUNO: 87/1975

October 13:
KSGF: 88/2017
KJLN: 88/1952
KVIH: 88/1899
KUNO: 93/1989

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Soria
LONG TERM...Soria
AVIATION...Burchfield
FIRE WEATHER...Didio
CLIMATE...Didio