750
FXUS63 KSGF 052235
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
535 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated thunderstorms today and scattered storms Saturday
  afternoon. More widespread rain chance will occur Sunday into
  Monday (90% likelihood). No severe weather expected at this
  time.

- Monitoring for flash flood potential this weekend, especially
  Sunday into Monday. The entire area is in the WPC slight risk
  for excessive rainfall area Sunday and Sunday night, with
  eastern areas in the slight risk for Monday. A Flood Watch may
  be needed later this weekend.

- Temperature and humidity favored to be above normal for next
  week. Highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s with heat
  index values in the upper 90s to low 100s by the middle of
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 207 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Isolated thunderstorms today and scattered storms Saturday
afternoon. More widespread rain chance will occur Sunday into
Monday (90% likelihood). No severe weather expected at this
time:
 - Impacts: Typical shower and non-severe storm impacts.
 - Details: A few isolated diurnal showers and perhaps thunder
   this afternoon/evening mainly south of Highway 60. Generally
   scattered coverage of the same on Saturday.
 - Confidence: High.
 - Meteorological Analysis: Large scale ascent will increase on
   Saturday as a mid-level trough moves north out of Texas.
   This will lead to increased coverage of showers and storms.
   Even so, coverage should be limited to scattered until the
   trough and greater moisture arrive on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 207 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Monitoring for flash flood potential this weekend, especially
Sunday into Monday. The entire area is in the WPC slight risk
for excessive rainfall area Sunday and Sunday night, with
eastern areas in the slight risk for Monday. A Flood Watch may
be needed later this weekend.
 - Impacts: Potential for flooding and lightning likely.
 - Details: Widespread showers and thunderstorms Sunday and
   Sunday night, gradually shifting east on Monday. Heavy
   rainfall potential may lead to flooding, but locations and
   amounts are uncertain at this time.
 - Confidence: Confidence in rain chances is high. Confidence in
   flooding potential and locations is low to medium.
 - Meteorological Analysis: Moisture increased (PWATs of
   1.75-2.0 inches, or about 150-175% of normal) will move in
   ahead of the mid-level trough shifting north through the
   area. Moisture values will not be too unusual from a
   climatological perspective, with CFSR 30 year climo showing
   recurrence of 1 day every 1-2 years for the 3 week reference
   period. In other words, while moisture is above normal, it`s
   not abnormal to see this level of moisture. Large scale
   forcing associated with the trough and isentropic upglide
   will lead to an increase in coverage of precipitation on
   Sunday that will continue into Sunday night before gradually
   shifting east on Monday. Lacking a stationary front as a
   training mechanism, flooding will rely more on convective
   outcomes for possible training, which reduces predictability
   and confidence. LPMM is typically quite helpful at diagnosing
   localized higher rainfall totals, but REFS only goes out
   through 7pm Sunday. Even so, through that time period, 24
   hour LPMM values are localized 3-5 inches of rain. Keep in
   mind, additional heavy rainfall is expected into Monday.
   Generalized rainfall totals through Monday are in the 1-3
   inch range. A flood watch may be needed once confidence
   increases.

Temperature and humidity favored to be above normal for next
week. Highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s with heat index
values in the upper 90s to low 100s by the middle of next week.
 - Impacts: Heat impacts, but more likely not reaching Heat
   Advisory criteria given current data.
 - Details: Above normal temperatures and humidity Tuesday
   through at least Thursday. More likely to break record warm
   low temperatures than record warm high temperatures. Look
   for highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and lows in the low to
   mid 70s. Mid-70s dew points will lead to abnormally high head
   index values in the upper 90s to low 100s.
 - Confidence: NBM probability of heat index > 100 F ranges from
   < 20% over the southeastern CWA to 50-80% over the
   northwestern CWA.
 - Meteorological Analysis: An upper ridge building over the
   central CONUS will lead to a buildup of heat. Ensemble
   climatology tools are not indicating that the airmass will be
   too anomalous at generally 1 day every 1-2 years relative to
   CFSR climo. However, moisture will be unusually high. Closest
   proxy to surface moisture in the climo is 925mb specific
   humidity, which is shown to be outside the climo range (quite
   unseal). This will lead to very humid conditions more
   typical of mid-summer and will aid in keep overnight lows
   warmer. Forecast temperatures are several degrees cooler than
   record warm highs, but are near or exceed record warm lows.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 533 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

broken VFR to near-MVFR ceilings will occur across southwest
Missouri at the start of the TAF period. MVFR to IFR ceilings
will then move in from northern Arkansas and northeast Oklahoma
after 12Z along with periodic chances for showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Didio