277
FXUS63 KSGF 161058
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
558 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect for the entire area
  through this evening. Heat index values around 100 to 110 will
  occur.

- There is a Marginal (1 out of 5) Severe Thunderstorm Risk this
  afternoon/evening and into tonight for portions of the area.
  Damaging wind gusts are the main risk along with locally heavy
  rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 216 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Synoptic analysis shows the upper level high to our south, with
the ridging pattern beginning to flatten out, leading to west-
northwesterly flow aloft. As a result, embedded upper level
energy is progged to push through the region throughout today,
with an associated surface cold front moving southeast through
the forecast area this afternoon/evening and into tonight.
Taking a look at current radar as of 2AM, some scattered
convection has been ongoing over portions of northern KS into
central MO during the early morning hours. Most of this activity
has stayed north of the CWA so far, however did introduce some
pops (15%) for areas north of Highway 54, as they could see some
isolated showers/storms this morning. Any convection that does
make its way this far south this morning is expected to remain
below severe limits.

Today will be another hot and toasty day, although some
locations will see highs several degrees lower than previous
days as the cold front makes its way south this afternoon. Areas
north of Highway 60 are expected to top out in the low to mid
90s, with areas along and south of Hwy 60 reaching the upper
90s to low 100s. With heat index values once again ranging
between 100-110 degrees, the Extreme Heat Warning will be
allowed to continue through the remainder of today before
expiring this evening.

The aforementioned cold front that will push through the area
this afternoon/evening and into tonight will spark isolated to
scattered showers and storms. Guidance suggests ample
instability, with MLCAPE upwards of 2000-3000 J/kg, and 0-6km
bulk shear of 20-25kts, which would be supportive of more
pulse-like thunderstorms capable of producing isolated 60mph
wind gusts. The Storm Prediction Center continues to highlight
areas east of I-49 in a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) to account
for this potential. Latest High-res guidance suggests the
better severe potential beginning after 4pm, with isolated
chances persisting until a little after midnight. Some isolated
showers and storms may linger through the remainder of the
overnight hours, however we`re not expecting these to be strong.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 216 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Surface winds behind the frontal passage will become northerly
on Monday, with northwesterly flow aloft ushering in cooler
temperatures and a brief relief from the heat. Afternoon highs
will range in the 80s for a majority of the forecast area, with
some locations closer to the MO/AR border and over far southeast
KS reaching the low 90s. There exists some isolated chances
(20-40%) for convection Monday afternoon over the far southern
portion of MO and into AR as some upper level energy pushes
through, which could limit the temperatures even further. Any
activity that does enter the CWA should remain sub-severe.

Southerly flow returns on Tuesday, bringing warming temperatures
back to the area. Highs will range in the low to mid 90s,
reaching the upper 90s to low 100s towards far southeast
KS/southwest MO, with heat index values in the mid 90s to low
100s. Wednesday will likely be a few degrees warmer, however
large spreads between the NBMs 25th and 75th percentiles leads
to lowered confidence in exact temperatures.

An upper level shortwave trough is progged to make its way through
the region Wednesday night into Thursday, with an associated
surface cold front passing through. This will bring additional
chances (30-50%) for showers/storms. There`s still much
uncertainty as we look ahead towards the end of the week, as any
small change will affect temperatures and precipitation chances.
The current forecast temperatures show highs in the mid 80s
northeast to the mid 90s southwest to finish out the week,
however this could change as models get a better handle on
future systems.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 555 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

VFR conditions should prevail through much of the TAF period.
Southwesterly surface winds will shift to the north during the
afternoon as a cold front pushes through the area. This will
spark isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms after
~20Z, which may temporarily lower ceilings and visibilities with
any of the stronger storms that push near the terminals.
Confidence in coverage/these affecting the terminals remains low
at this point, so just included this potential in a PROB30
group.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-
     097-101.
MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Melto
LONG TERM...Melto
AVIATION...Melto