347
FXUS63 KSGF 030559
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1159 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 15-25 mph southerly winds with gusts up to 35 mph today into
  Tuesday morning.

- Slight (2 of 5) Risk for severe thunderstorms this evening
  (likely after 7 PM) through the overnight hours. The most
  likely scenario is for the line of storms to be at the Highway
  65 corridor by 2-5 AM. Damaging winds and brief tornadoes are
  the primary risks.

- Marginal (1 of 5) Risk for damaging winds and brief tornadoes
  along and east of Highway 65 on Tuesday. Exact timing of the
  threat depends on the evolution of tonight`s storms.
  Regardless, the risk will end by 6 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 330 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Mid-level water vapor imagery depicts the story of the day,
showing a deep trough over the west CONUS starting to become
negatively-tilted as the axis enters west TX. Radar imagery
shows a line of non-severe thunderstorms from central OK up into
the NE corner of KS as a mid-level front/subtle shortwave
progresses eastward. Further southwest, the main trough is
beginning to show signs of developing storms along a
dryline/developing cold front in west OK where a Tornado Watch
is currently in effect. Elsewhere, fog is finally beginning to
lift in the eastern Ozarks, and clouds are breaking in coverage
across the area, making highs on track to reach the upper 70s.


Gusty southerly winds up to 30 mph today and tonight:

With this system being one of the most dynamic since Spring, the
surface wind field is understandably responding with 15-25 mph
sustained winds and gusts up to 25-35 mph. This is expected to
continue until the system exits Tuesday afternoon.


Marginal to Slight Risk for severe storms through Tuesday:

The strong southerly winds have acted to advect mid-60s
dewpoints in to the area as well, which is acting to create a
very mildly unstable atmosphere ahead of the potent shortwave
and attendant cold front. With strong forcing along the
front/wave, and associated deep-layer shear increasing to 45-50
kts, if thunderstorms can develop, there is a Marginal (1 of 5)
to Slight (2 of 5) Risk for severe weather as the cold front
moves through our area tonight and into Tuesday. The big word
there is "IF". We can have all the shear in the world, but if
instability is too meager, storms will not develop. And current
model guidance is in decent agreement on meager, skinny CAPE
profiles at 250-750 J/kg, but whether that pans out remains to
be seen. Therefore, below are some potential scenarios and
associated timing for the severe threats:

Scenario A: While CAMs are in pretty decent agreement in seeing
at least 250 J/kg MUCAPE ahead of the storms, the vertical
profiles are actually very thin. Unlike some cool season severe
events where <750 J/kg can still produce decent severe storms
since much of the profile is in the low-levels and is thicker,
this setup is still somewhat "warm season" and the profile
extends to an elevated tropopause, thinning out the CAPE.
Therefore, one concern with this setup is that any deviancy in
the actual vertical temperature profile could cap off any
storms, eliminating a severe threat. CAM soundings are hinting
at a subtle mid-level warm nose, and if this is any bit warmer
than forecast, this is definitely a potential scenario. The
MPAS-RRFS model (which from early experimentation has sometimes
outperformed the HRRR) does show this scenario.

Scenario B: If we do have enough instability present, a line of
storms pushing from west to east tonight is likely (>90%
chance). The evolution of this threat then breaks into two
different timing scenarios. Both scenarios have agreement that
the non-severe thunderstorms in Kansas may impact our SE KS
counties between 6 PM and 10 PM. While in a decent environment,
weaker forcing associated with these storms may be too weak for
a substantial severe risk. That said, some severe risk is
possible with these.

Either way, the main line of storms with the cold front is
progged to arrive at the KS/MO border sometime between 10 PM and
midnight, and arriving at the Highway 65 corridor between 2-5
AM. If instability stays sufficient ahead of this line, events
like these tend to truck the line through our entire CWA. If
this occurs, the severe risk for our area should end by 10 AM to
noon Tuesday. The ARW model depicts this scenario.

Scenario C: Model forecasts have instability waning through the
overnight hours. Additionally, the synoptic presentation
consists of the mid-level low lifting northeast late tonight,
but a secondary shortwave lifting in from the south during the
day Tuesday. The waning instability and splitting wave could
lead to the line of storms breaking apart around the Highway 65
corridor. If this occurs, the second wave lifting from the south
could provide additional instability and lift for redevelopment
of storms during the day Tuesday. This would elongate the risk
east of Highway 65, lasting as late as 6 PM. The HRRR and RRFS
depict this scenario.

Hazards: Regardless of the scenario in timing/evolution that
occurs, the hazards are quite clear. Given copious amounts of
low-level shear (35-40 kts 0-1 km shear; 40-45 kts 0-3 km shear
oriented to the NE; and 200-300 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH), if a line of
storms is able to develop, brief spin-up tornadoes actually
appear to be the main hazard. Damaging winds are still possible,
but with poor lapse rates and weak instability, any severe (60
mph) gusts would mainly be background windfield driven.

The SPC has us in a 5% hatched tornado risk west of Highway 65,
which does present a reasonable maximum intensity of an EF2
tornado, but let`s actually add some context to what the risk
means. There is a 5% chance of *occurrence* of a tornado within
25 miles of your location (so the chance is actually much lower
if you were to make that chance within, say, 5 miles of your
location). The hatching is then *conditional* on *if* a tornado
occurs. Approximately 10% of all tornadoes within single hatched
outlooks were EF2+. Therefore, there`s a 5% chance of a tornado
occuring within 25 miles of your location. *If* a tornado
occurs, there`s a 10% chance that tornado could be EF2. Which
means there is a 0.5% chance of an EF2 tornado within 25 miles
of your location tonight. Given the instability profiles,
though, we would hedge bets on a lower probability. Long story
short, given the QLCS mode, if tornadoes occur, they should
mostly be EF0 or EF1s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 330 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Seasonable and mostly dry weather through the rest of the week:

Following the strong cold front, appreciably cold air is
actually not forecast. This is largely due to the mid-level low
stalling out to our north after the wave exits, with zonal jet
flow filling in behind. Therefore, temperatures are forecast to
be rather seasonable with highs ranging from the upper 50s to
middle 60s and lows in the lower 30s to lower 40s on Wednesday
through the rest of the week.

Another wave is forecast to move through the area Thursday which
could bring some rain (15-30% chance), but with the preceding
cold front locking appreciable moisture to the Gulf, any
precipitation is expected to be light.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1145 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Ceilings will continue to trend downward into MVFR levels in the
next couple of hours as the main line of thunderstorms moves
through the area. Heavy rain may lower visibilities as the
thunderstorms move through. Rain is forecast to end near sunrise
and push east past the TAF sites. Winds will remain gusty
through the period near 25-30 kts. Wind direction will switch
from southeasterly to southwesterly after 18z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Price
LONG TERM...Price
AVIATION...Soria