294
FXUS63 KSGF 272335
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
635 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread rain and a few embedded thunderstorm chances this
  evening through Thursday, mainly along and southwest of a
  Nevada-Springfield-Gainesville line. Intermittent periods of
  heavy rain are expected.

- Medium-high confidence for a swath of 2-4 inches of rain
  across the southwest corner of Missouri and southeast corner
  of Kansas with the potential for localized amounts up to 5-7
  inches. A Flood Watch has been issued from 1 AM to 1 PM
  Thursday.

- Below average temperatures expected through the weekend into
  early next week with highs in the 70s to lower 80s. This is
  10+ degrees below normal for late August.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Upper-level water vapor imagery nicely shows the longwave trough
across the eastern CONUS with ridging to the west. The right
entrance region of the upper-level jet is providing lift for
some showers across eastern Kansas and Oklahoma early this
afternoon. Mesoanalysis shows little to no instability across
the area, so the lightning potential appears to be limited to
Oklahoma until tonight when a few hundred joules of elevated
MUCAPE creep into extreme southeast Kansas and southwest
Missouri.

A warm front is progged to lift through northeast Oklahoma and
approach the forecast area after midnight tonight. Isentropic
upglide will allow for additional rain and a few thunderstorms
to form along the boundary. As it does so, PWATs will increase
into the 1.6-1.9" range with elevated instability of 100-800
J/kg. These will allow for heavy rainfall rates, potentially up
to 2 to 2.5"/hr at times. Northwest flow parallel to the
boundary will also support training thunderstorms. Rain chances
continue into at least early Thursday afternoon.

CAMs continue to support the potential for a narrow band of
very heavy rainfall totals somewhere across extreme southeast
Kansas, southwest Missouri, or northeast Oklahoma. NBM 90th
percentile depicts QPF of 5-6 inches, while the 12Z HREF LPMM
has a narrow band near 7 inches somewhere across this area. The
ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index and Shift of Tails capture this
potential nicely. Despite dry antecedent conditions resulting
in 6 hr flash flood guidance of 5-6 inches, training storms and
potentially high rainfall rates will at least open the door to
flash flooding for any locations that receive near 5-7 inches.
Elsewhere, widespread amounts of 2-4 inches are forecast
southwest of a Nevada to Branson line. A Flood Watch has been
issued from 1 AM to 1 PM Thursday for southwest Missouri and
southeast Kansas. The Weather Prediction Center has likewise
outlined a similar area in a Moderate (3 of 4) risk for
excessive rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Rain chances largely look to wind down by Thursday evening as
the aforementioned warm front slinks back south into Arkansas. A
few models want to keep some showers across extreme southern
Missouri into Thursday night, but these are in the minority, and
PoPs are limited to 40% or less.

Otherwise, ensembles tend to show mostly dry conditions through
Tuesday with a stagnant upper-level flow pattern. To that end,
slightly below average temperatures will continue through the
long-term forecast with daily highs in the 70s to low 80s. These
temperatures are roughly 10 degrees below the climatological
normals.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 630 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Rain is currently over the area and will continue into Thursday.
More intense rainfall, and potentially some thunder, is
expected late tonight into Thursday afternoon, especially from
KJLN to KBBG. KSGF will be on the northeast edge of where
heavier rainfall is expected, making the forecast more
challenging given a tight gradient in precip amounts to the
southwest. Look for MVFR to IFR ceilings at all sites late
tonight into or through much of Thursday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 333 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Record Low Temperatures:

August 27:
KJLN: 52/1962
KVIH: 51/1971
KUNO: 52/2010

Record lowest high temperatures:

August 28:
KSGF: 68/1986
KJLN: 70/1988
KUNO: 69/1988
KVIH: 71/1965

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Thursday through Thursday afternoon
     for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Thursday through Thursday afternoon
     for MOZ077-088-093-094-101>103.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Didio
LONG TERM...Didio
AVIATION...Titus
CLIMATE...Lindenberg