986
FXUS63 KSGF 150548
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1248 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower and thunderstorm chances today will mainly be confined
  to southwestern portions of the forecast area (15-50%).

- On and off chances (15-50%) for showers and thunderstorms
  tonight, Sunday, and into Monday as a weak slow-moving system
  traverses the area. Isolated and localized instances of gusty
  winds and flooding are possible through Monday.

- Slight (15% Chance) Risk for severe thunderstorms Tuesday
  night across central Missouri, then again Wednesday for much
  of our forecast area.

- Humid conditions are expected all through next week. Signals
  point to temperatures nearing 90 F towards the end of the
  week. Therefore, we may see heat index values in the mid-90s
  to around 100 at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Welcome to muggy-airmass-weak-flow-daily-MCS-to-MCV-induced-
shower/thunderstorm season! The bottom-line upfront for the next
few days is that an expansive muggy air mass is in place at the
surface, contributing at least modest instability across the
region. At the same time, the jet stream is noted well north of
the area, mainly across the US/Canada border. This is resulting
in very weak flow through the atmosphere. The combinations of
these mean that any thunderstorm complex that develops across
the Plains moves somewhat slowly and somewhat erratically,
making them difficult to pinpoint location, extent, and
longevity any given day. But the mug air mass in place will mean
at least isolated to scattered rain chances each day. This
forecast will have the latest details, but expect exact
locations, timings, and expected coverage of storms to change
with subsequent forecasts through the period given the pattern
will be rather static through next week.


15-50% chances for showers and thunderstorms today and tonight:

Radar and satellite imagery paired with RAP analysis depicts two
very weak MCV-type mid-level shortwaves. One within north-
central KS, and another around the corner of OK/KS/MO (i.e., our
southwestern CWA). Varying degrees of strengthening and
weakening of showers and thunderstorms have occurred within the
vicinity of this wave, with some light to moderate showers
having impacted the I-49 corridor down to McDonald County this
morning.

Negative vorticity and weaker instability within the upstream
side of a more distinct shortwave trough over the Mid-
Mississippi Valley is keeping much of the activity from pushing
further east into our area. Nevertheless, lingering weak
positive vorticity advection with the MCV along with surface
outflow from previous storms may force additional showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight, mainly in our
southwestern CWA (15-50% chance). While any storms would be
isolated to scattered, weak flow will mean they are relatively
slow-moving. Additionally, HREF mean has PWATs increasing above
1.5 inches this afternoon into tonight. Therefore, efficient
rain rates could produce some isolated nuisance flooding under
any stronger slow-moving storm.


On and off showers and thunderstorms Sunday into Monday:

CAMs are pretty consistent in an MCS developing across the
central Plains tonight. However, they are inconsistent in the
location of development and movement, which has impacts on our
thunderstorm chances Sunday into Monday. Some models show
development in OK while others show KS. Given southeastward
movement, development in KS would produce a more favorable path
into our area, while development in OK would create less of a
chance. Therefore, chances are still low in the 15-50% range for
early Sunday morning into the afternoon.

After the complex moves through Sunday morning, an MCV is
likely to develop somewhere within the MO/OK/AR region. The
placement of this will determine where the highest storm chances
are for Sunday afternoon into Monday. While there is a scenario
where much of our area stays mostly to completely dry, there is
consensus in at least some of the area seeing showers and
thunderstorms.

The MCV will be slow-moving. Similar to the pattern we just went
through, some more widespread stratiform rain is possible
Sunday morning, and again Monday night into Monday morning, with
more isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible
during the afternoon and evening hours. Once again, any
thunderstorm could be slow-moving and have efficient rain rates
as PWATs approach 1.8-2.0". HREF LPMMs show many very localized
"blobs" of 1.5-2.5+ inches of rain beneath these stronger cells,
so very localized nuisance flooding is possible. Additionally,
the gusty sub-severe winds are also possible with the stronger
storms. There is a Marginal (1 of 5) Risk for severe
thunderstorms for our southwest counties, but this is for more
organized severe weather from decaying MCSs each night rather
than the afternoon thunderstorms.


During this whole period, highs in the middle 80s and lows in
the upper 60s are expected, with muggy "feels-like" air.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Slight (15% Chance) Risk for severe thunderstorms Tuesday night:

A slight pattern change is then in store Tuesday and Wednesday
as a modest trough is progged to extend into the central Plains
as it traverses from west to east. There are still some global
ensemble uncertainties in the shape and timing of the trough
given the weak nature of it, but some form of trough and
attendant surface cold front will move through during the
Tuesday through Wednesday period. The introduction of the trough
will increase deep-layer shear overtop of our muggy air mass in
place. As such, severe thunderstorms are possible along the
surface cold front. Tuesday, this would be over the northern
Plains, in which the remnants of may reach into our northern
counties late Tuesday night, making an MCS with damaging winds
and large hail the main risk.


Slight (15% Chance) Risk for severe thunderstorms Wednesday:

The better severe risk for our area comes Wednesday into
Wednesday night as the cold front is forecast to move through
the area. There are still some uncertainties in the exact type
of storm mode since global ensemble hodographs show just modest
deep layer shear (30-35 kts) which would be very borderline for
supercells. This would still be sufficient for damaging winds
and large hail. However, given a >25+ kt LLJ expected, if
supercells were possible, tornadoes would be an added risk.


Muggy air mass all through next week, 90-100F Heat Index values:

NBM dewpoints are forecast to be quite high through next week,
with the mean at mid-70s dewpoints as far out as Friday and
Saturday. This makes sense as both NAEFS and ECMWF ESATs show
>97.5th percentile mean specific humidity everyday through June
24th (with some days at the Max for the 30-year climatology for
mid-June). Additionally, behind the exiting trough, ensembles
are in agreement with a deep ridge building into the area, which
should allow highs to reach the upper 80s and lower 90s,
especially toward the weekend. Lows toward the weekend are also
forecast to reach the lower to middle 70s. Therefore, a heat
risk will begin to increase. Mean NBM heat index values reach
the middle 90s to lower 100s after Thursday. We will have to
monitor trends for any potential increases in this forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

An area of showers and storms was slowly moving into far
southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri early this
morning. Showers and storms will impact the KJLN area through
the morning as the area of storms moves slowly to the east. By
late morning into the early afternoon, the area of storms will
move east far enough to impact the remaining regional terminals.

Storms through the period will be scattered in nature and are
not expect to be persistent or widespread. Otherwise where
storms do occur, expect impacts to ceilings and visibilities.
Where storms are not occurring, flight condition`s will be
generally MVFR due to ceilings.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Price
LONG TERM...Price
AVIATION...Hatch